Kim vs. Murphy: The first independent poll

Good Friday morning!

If you look online, there’s no question Andy Kim has excited the Democratic base more than Tammy Murphy in the race to replace the indicted Bob Menendez in the Senate. Virtually every one of her campaign tweets, for instance, gets ratio’d.

But does the X formerly known as Twitter reflect real life? The answer — according, anyway, to the first independent public poll of the race — is yes.

In the FDU poll of 504 likely Democratic primary voters, the three-term congressman from South Jersey leads the first lady 32 percent to 20 percent, with 9 percent for Menendez and 8 percent for Patricia Campos-Medina. (While a significant lead, it’s less than the 23 points an internal Kim poll showed him leading by in December.)

Kim also has a near-universal positive approval rating from those who know enough about him to form an opinion, while Murphy, who has better name recognition, is about two-to-one positive.

But there are some interesting numbers here. Take the racial disparities. Kim leads with whites and Asians, but Murphy leads with Blacks and Hispanics.

I said before that if anyone appears poised to defeat the structural advantages that New Jersey’s political boss system gives a candidate they back, it’s Kim. He’s got much of the base enthusiastically backing him. What I’m not sure of is how much of that is in support of Andy Kim, or just rebelling against the political boss system so closely associated with Menendez.

Find the full poll on FDU’s website

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QUOTE OF THE DAY: “If you’ve got the principal chasing meatballs, and you’ve got the literacy coach, who is supposed to be coaching literacy, and the math coach, who is supposed to be coaching math, covering the gym, how are you supposed to expect success?” — Newark Teachers Union President John Abeigon

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Hollie Gilroy, Aaron Keyak, Danny Reiter. Saturday for Jeff Giertz, Bert Lopez, Tayfun Selen, one of my Uncle Bills. Sunday for Eric Brophy, Brian Shott, Nicole Ristagno.

WHERE’S MURPHY? — Nothing on his public schedule.

A message from McDonald’s:

From 2021 to 2022, the McDonald’s System contributed over $830 million to New Jersey’s economy, supporting over 17,000 jobs statewide. McDonald’s presence in local communities throughout New Jersey generated nearly $150 million in federal, state and local tax revenue, providing funding for public schools, infrastructure, parks and more. Learn more about McDonald’s impact on local communities in New Jersey and nationally by visiting https://www.mcdeconomicimpact.com/state-impacts/nj.

JERSEY BLEEDOM — Judge will decide on Jersey Freedom case by March, unfreezes bank account by POLITICO’s Matt Friedman: A judge will decide by March 15 whether a Republican complaint against the shadowy group that promoted alleged fake candidates while not disclosing its funding until after the election belongs in court or with New Jersey’s campaign finance watchdog agency. After hearing arguments in Atlantic County Superior Court Thursday morning, Judge Michael Blee said he would issue a written decision by that date. But Blee agreed to lift a freeze he put on the group’s bank account shortly after the Republicans filed suit, just days before the November legislative elections. The case could set an important precedent in how New Jersey’s new campaign finance law, the Elections Transparency Act, is enforced.

THE NUCLEAR OPTION — The fight between Holtec, the nuclear energy giant aligned with South Jersey power broker George Norcross, and Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration continues and is heading to the state Supreme Court. Days after the company agreed to pay $5 million to end a criminal investigation of a $1 million 2018 tax credit Holtec and a related company sought, the state is continuing the lengthy litigation over another tax credit: The separate $260 million tax credit Holtec received that Murphy’s administration tried to freeze, allegedly because of a false answer Holtec gave on a 2014 tax credit application by not disclosing that it had been debarred in Tennessee for 10 days in 2010. Late last year, an appeals panel found Holtec is entitled to keep that money. On Thursday, Attorney General Matthew Platkin said he was appealing that decision.

“The public has the right to demand honesty and integrity from businesses who sign agreements with the State of New Jersey, especially when hundreds of millions in tax incentive dollars are at stake,” Platkin said. “And when a business misleads the State about misconduct in its past, that business cannot escape liability. We are proud to fight to hold unscrupulous businesses accountable, no matter how big and powerful they are.”

In a statement earlier this week, Holtec tied the state’s appeals court loss to its criminal investigation and said in a statement that it had agreed to settle the criminal investigation “under threat of unfounded retaliatory criminal prosecution” that “comes on the heels of the state losing twice in court regarding previous tax credits, only to come back a third time using the threat of criminal prosecution to finally get a public ‘win,’ needlessly punishing a large New Jersey manufacturer on the forefront of the green energy revolution in America.” — Ry Rivard

NJ TRANSIT HAS GREAT SERVICE … FOR HIM TO POOP ON! — “Puppy on board! Dog boards NJ Transit train on solo trip from South Orange to Hoboken,” by The Record’s Lucas Frau: “During Thursday morning’s commute, a wayward dog boarded a NJ Transit train. The dog was spotted at the Mountain Station in South Orange at approximately 7:52 a.m. where he rode the train to the Hoboken terminal while following a commuter, who was not his owner, NJ Transit Police posted on X, formerly Twitter. So far there has been no success in locating an owner. The dog has no microchip or collar with identification.”

—“Porrino to chair New Jersey criminal sentencing and disposition commission”

—“Makeover for aging, cramped Port Authority bus terminal in Manhattan could start in 2024”

—“Alone, autistic and afraid: Medical records and witnesses say Leah was severely neglected at her group home. The state disagreed”

—“N.J. corrections officer denied time off after MS diagnosis deserves $10M, judges rule”

—Opinion: “NJ AG Holtec sanctions dismissed by firm echo previous concerns”

A message from McDonald’s:

DO AS I SAY NOT AS I VAN DO — Craig Callaway, the former Democratic Atlantic City council president who served prison time for bribery and blackmail, was charged with voter fraud Thursday by federal prosecutors over his vote-by-mail operation, in which he allegedly paid messengers to apply for vote-by-mail ballots that Callaway and his subordinates submitted in the names of people who said they never actually voted.

This is Callaway’s first voter fraud charge, but his vote-by-mail operation has been well known and controversial for years. In fact, in 2015 it inspired a bipartisan-backed law to limit the number of ballots messengers can submit from 10 to 3. Among those who voted for the law: then-Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew.

Van Drew won a congressional seat in 2018 and, following his impending loss of party support because of his refusal to support Donald Trump’s first impeachment, became a Republican. He then took a hard right turn, voting to overturn the 2020 election and even co-sponsoring a bill that would add restrictions to mail-in voting and outlaw most messenger ballots.

Callaway has long been well-known and notorious in South Jersey. Nevertheless, Van Drew hired him for his 2020 and 2022 Republican reelection campaigns, paying him $135,000 and $65,000, respectively. It was during the 2022 campaign, federal authorities said, that Callaway engaged in this messenger ballot fraud scheme.

Van Drew’s campaign said in a statement that the amount of mail-in ballots from Atlantic City didn’t come close to his victory margin in 2022, that “we never have and never would condone any illegal activity” and that Callaway signed a contract that “he “shall adhere to all federal, state, and local laws and regulations.” .

The suggestion that Van Drew was ignorant of Callaway’s convictions and controversies goes well beyond straining credulity. He might as well have just quoted Casablanca.

—Stile: “Why are MAGA NJ Republicans crazed about Taylor Swift and the Super Bowl?”

—“FEC: Bhalla leads the way in 8th District fundraising for Congress with $915k COH”

—“New Jersey’s Q4 congressional fundraising, by the numbers”

TROLLS RIVER — “Glitches, antisemitic comment kill Toms River meeting, stop vote on cutting cop jobs,” by The Asbury Park Press’ Jean Mikle: “The Township Council was unable to hold a public hearing and potential vote on an ordinance cutting two police captains’ jobs after technical difficulties forced the adjournment of the virtual Zoom meeting before the council could consider the measure … More than 700 people were also watching the meeting on the township’s YouTube channel … The meeting ended during the start of a public hearing on item number 13 on the agenda, an ordinance that would reshape Toms River’s public works department by placing the divisions of roads and sanitation directly under the township’s business administrator, and place the division of parks, buildings and grounds under the recreation department. The first person who raised his hand to speak about the measure began asking council members about ‘Jews and tunnels,’ a reference to an illegal tunnel found under a Brooklyn synagogue. As he continued to make offensive remarks, Rodrick called on the questioner to be muted, but he was not and continued to speak. The meeting was shut down.”

AS MARK ZUCKERBERG PROVED, THROWING MONEY AT NEWARK SCHOOLS WORKS — “Newark teacher contract talks: Union demands above highest salary in U.S.,” by TAPIntoNewark’s Matt Kadosh: “The president of the Newark Teachers Union wants to make the city’s public school district a destination for teachers nationwide. In teacher contract talks with the school district, NTU President John M. Abeigon said he is asking for the school district’s teachers to have well above the highest starting salary in the nation and better control over their working conditions. ‘We are demanding the highest, so whatever the highest is in the country, it’s pennies compared to what we are demanding,’ Abeigon said in a recent interview at the union’s headquarters. ‘We want to make Newark a destination district for teachers — young vibrant teachers coming out of college.’ … In 2022, the Board of Education and NTU agreed to raise the district’s starting teacher salary to $62,000, a district news release says. Pay is just a piece of the puzzle for Abeigon, who, while seated with a poster-sized photo of an operating room behind him, said he wants the district to model its management after the Mayo Clinic, which makes physicians the organization’s key leaders.”

NORTH WILDWOOD — —“DEP says no to North Wildwood bulkhead plans,” by The Press of Atlantic City’s Bill Barlow: “The city sees extending its beachfront bulkhead as an emergency. The state does not agree. On Thursday morning, city officials announced their intention to file an emergency appeal of the decision by the Department of Environmental Protection, stating it leaves several blocks of the community at risk from storms. ‘The absence of effective shore protection is expected to cause erosion to accelerate, placing city infrastructure at significant risk,’ reads a statement from the city. Once one of New Jersey’s widest beaches, there is little or no beach left for several blocks of North Wildwood.”

—“N.J. man pleads guilty to federal hate crimes in attacks on Orthodox Jews”

—“Lakewood population boom sparks $100 million township improvement plan”

—“Jersey City says armed cops cannot use cannabis off duty. Police union says that’s ‘pure hogwash’”

—“Family, friends remember Council Member Eunice Dwumfour 1 year after she was killed”

—“Secaucus ed board member who teaches in Union City charged with DWI”

A message from McDonald’s:

McDonald’s is an economic engine for the state of New Jersey, contributing over $830 million to our state’s economy, directly employing nearly 13,800 New Jerseyans and supporting an additional 3,200 jobs statewide. It’s also an engine of opportunity: 1 in 8 independent McDonald’s operators in New Jersey began their careers as restaurant crew members, generating wealth for their families and local communities. We are proud to support New Jersey through public schools, parks and more from the nearly $150 million in federal, state and local tax revenue generated by the McDonald’s System’s activities. And thanks to the generosity of McDonald’s customers and owner/operators, the $660,000 raised through Ronald McDonald House Charities in 2022 provided over 6,600 overnight stays for families with children receiving medical care in New Jersey. Learn more about McDonald’s impact on local communities in New Jersey and nationally by visiting https://www.mcdeconomicimpact.com/state-impacts/nj.

FRT KNOCKED — “Lawsuit seen as crucial test of police use of facial recognition technology,” by New Jersey Monitor’s Dana DiFilippo: “The American Civil Liberties Union has weighed in on a wrongful imprisonment lawsuit a Paterson man filed after Woodbridge police arrested him in 2019 as a shoplifting suspect solely based on a facial recognition system match. The controversial technology is supposed to be just one of several investigatory tools police use to solve crimes, but Woodbridge officers relied on it exclusively to identify Nijeer Parks as the man who stole $39 in merchandise from a hotel, despite Parks’ insistence that he had never been to the township nor knew where it was. Parks subsequently spent 10 days in jail and almost 10 months under prosecution before the case was dismissed for lack of evidence. ‘Mr. Parks’s case represents the unfortunate and increasingly common story of how the police’s uncritical reliance on results of unreliable FRT searches can deprive the innocent of their liberty and directly violate constitutional rights,’ ACLU attorneys wrote in a brief filed Monday supporting Parks’ federal civil rights complaint. The harms of such misidentification disproportionately impact people of color like Parks, the group said.”

R.I.P. — “Adele Springsteen, mother of Bruce Springsteen, has died,” by The Asbury Park Press’ Chris Jordan: “Adele Springsteen, proud mom of Bruce Springsteen and a long-time Freehold resident, died Wednesday, Jan 31, Springsteen announced on social media … She was 98. Springsteen shared a video of him and his mom dancing, in a private setting, to Glenn Miller’s ‘In the Mood,’ with lyrics from his tribute to her, ‘The Wish,’ which was performed nightly in ‘Springsteen on Broadway.’ ‘I’m older but you’ll know me in a glance,’ Springsteen posted. ‘We’ll find us a little rock ‘n roll bar and we’ll go out and dance.’”

TO PROTECT AND SERVE DINNER — “NJ cop completes delivery after Uber Eats driver was detained,” by The Record’s Manahil Ahmad: “A borough police officer made sure an UberEats food order, albeit cold, made it to a resident on Sunday night after the driver was detained for having an outstanding warrant. Officer Mike Zvolensky stopped a motorist for having an outstanding warrant on Felch Road. Turns out the 60-year-old motorist was working as a driver for UberEats and on her way to make a delivery, according to a post on the police department’s Facebook page … During the stop, Officer Alex Tredy noticed the meal in the vehicle and stepped in to make sure no one went hungry by delivering the dinner to the Summit Road customer. The Facebook post reads: ‘Sorry for the cold food!’ and ‘We think the food got cold and no, he did not get a tip.’”

CAMDEN COUNTY DEMOCRATS WILL GET HIM ON THE BALLOT — “This N.J. aquarium is naming its newest resident ‘Phantom’,” by NJ Advance Media’s Katherine Rodriguez: “Camden’s Adventure Aquarium is naming their newest resident octopus ‘Phantom’ after a several-day voting period open to the public completed its run. According to the aquarium, the name ‘Phantom’ was inspired by the white scar that stretches across the Pacific octopus’ eye area, similar to the look of the Phantom in the hit broadway play, ‘The Phantom of the Opera.’”

—“Will Dallas score FIFA final in 2026? How MetLife, NJ and NY compare”

—“One of N.J.’s last independent hospitals headed for merger with health chain”