Kentucky at Louisville odds, picks and predictions
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The Kentucky Wildcats (6-5) and Louisville Cardinals (10-1) meet Saturday as they clash in the 35th renewal of the Governor’s Cup game. Kickoff at Cardinal Stadium is scheduled for noon ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Kentucky vs. Louisville odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Kentucky lost at South Carolina 17-14 last Saturday, an against-the-spread (ATS) loss as 2.5-point favorites). Since Oct. 7 Kentucky is 1-5 straight up and 1-5 ATS. A struggling Wildcats offense gained just 293 total yards at USC and has been held under 300 yards in 3 straight games.
Louisville is No. 9 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. The Cardinals (+1) won 38-31 at the Miami Hurricanes last Saturday for their 4th straight triumph. The win clinched a berth in the Dec. 2 ACC Championship Game against on Florida State at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
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Kentucky at Louisville odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:49 a.m. ET.
Kentucky at Louisville picks and predictions Prediction
Louisville 34, Kentucky 20
Moneyline
I don’t hate Louisville at this price, but most bankrolls will likely be averse to the 3-for-1 proposition. PASS.
Against the spread
Louisville is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home.
The Cardinals have 4 years of revenge (4 losses in the last 5 years; no game in 2020) in their hearts and much to play for in performing at a confirmation level to match their No. 9 ranking. The Wildcats are going to want to show their schedule has had much to do with their recent record.
Last year’s meeting was a defensive struggle, a 26-13 UK triumph in Lexington in which both offenses struggled to stay on the field on 3rd down. UL was a minus-3 in turnovers, and the Wildcats pounced with short-field scoring drives.
Look for this year’s game to have more offense. The Louisville passing game against Kentucky’s pass defense is especially a green check in the UL column. Both teams can be explosive on the ground, but both defenses counter those types of plays well. Figure the Cards with an edge in early-downs production on both sides of the ball. They are not, however, great in turning value trips into TDs.
UK will want to end the regular season on a strong note, but it may well be pretty beaten up after its recent schedule.
BACK THE CARDINALS 7.5 (-110). Consider a partial-unit play, unless the market gets back to Louisville -7.
Over/Under
Figure an Over lean here but perhaps not enough to warrant an account login. Looking at overall and home/road splits, Kentucky having enough of a pass game in a comeback effort is a question. Certainly Louisville want to present solid numbers to scoreboard watchers, but this would be a more comfortable play on the other side of 50.
PASS.
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