Keir Starmer says double Labour byelections win shows people ‘fed up with 13 years of decline’ under Tories – live

Starmer says byelection results show people ‘fed up with 13 years of decline’ under Tories

Keir Starmer is now in Tamworth where he has been speaking to supporters in the main stand at the Lamb, the home of Tamworth FC. Starmer told them:

People told me that it was not possible to win this seat and this byelection. You absolutely smashed it.

What you have seen here replicates what’s going on across the country – people are fed up to the back teeth with 13 years of decline under this government.

They want a fresh start. They want to go forward.

There were Tory voters yesterday who went to the ballot box to vote Labour. That is because they are fed up with the decline and despairing of the party they used to vote for.

Keir Starmer standing next to Sarah Edwards, the new Labour MP for Tamworth, at a rally in the constituency with supporters this morning. Photograph: Jacob King/PA

Updated at 07.57 EDT

Key events

Richard Tice, the Reform UK party leader, says that last night’s byelection results, which saw his party getting more votes than Labour won by in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, shows Reform UK could have a “significant effect” at the election.

Common sense ⁦@reformparty_uk⁩ policies gaining traction

We stand everywhere & will have significant effect at General Election

Tories & Labour = two forms of socialism: high tax, high regulation = low growth

He also says he won’t stand down candidates to help the Conservatives, and that Reform UK will be standing in all British constituencies.

Yes I will keep my promise630 seats

Rishi Sunak met the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, in Riyadh this morning, on the second day of his tour of the Middle East. In a readout of the meeting, No 10 said they agreed the Hamas attack on Israel was “shocking and tragic”, they stressed the need to avoid escalation and they agreed “on the urgent need to get food, water and medicine to civilians who are suffering” in Gaza.

No 10 also said:

The prime minister thanked Qatar for their efforts to secure the release of hostages taken by Hamas two weeks ago, including British nationals. He said that the UK government would use all the tools at our disposal to support these efforts and end the torment of the victims and their families. The leaders agreed to stay in close contact to continue these efforts.

Rishi Sunak meeting Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, this morning. Photograph: Amiri Diwan/Reuters

Updated at 09.00 EDT

In a post on X overnight, Luke Tryl also pointed out that, even though Reform UK is a very rightwing party, its voters would not necessarily back the Tories if Reform UK were not on the ballot paper. (See 1.14pm.)

Updated at 08.22 EDT

In Tamworth (see 6.48am) and Mid Bedfordshire (see 6.51am) the number of people voting for Reform UK, the new version of the Brexit party (which in effect replaced Ukip, although a rump Ukip still exists) was bigger than the size of the Labour majority, by 57 and 295 respectively. According to Luke Tryl, the director of More in Common UK, which campaigns for a less divisive politics, that is one of several aspects of the results that should worry the Conservatives. He says:

It’s not just that Labour has won two of the safest seats in the country it’s that they have overcome really significant electoral barriers to do so. In Mid Bedfordshire, Labour won despite a split in the anti-Tory vote and in Tamworth they won a seat that voted heavily for Leave in 2016 and also trended away from Labour at an alarming rate since the party last held it in 2005. All of this suggests that the Tories learnt the wrong lesson from the Uxbridge byelection in July and should have instead focused on what happened in Selby.

The Tories will also have a new worry after tonight; the emergence of a split on the right which saw the Reform UK vote larger than the Labour majority in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire. It suggests that, far from dampening support for the populist right, Rishi Sunak’s adopting of rhetoric around ‘the war on motorists’ may instead have boosted those parties.

Byelections aren’t the same as a general election, of course, but from everything we’ve seen in these two huge results the Tories should be very worried indeed. A significant economic recovery and subsequent feel-good factor over the next year is the only hope that could turn their fortunes around – and on this evidence, even that may not be enough.

Updated at 08.16 EDT

Keir Starmer embracing supporters in the rain at Tamworth football club this morning. Photograph: Toby Melville/ReutersHome Office opens consultation on how many refugees arriving via legal routes to admit to UK

The Home Office has announced that it is opening a consultation with councils on setting a cap on the number of refugees to be allowed to settle in the UK every year. The Illegal Migration Act is intended to stop anyone arriving in the UK through irregular means from claiming asylum, and it also includes provisions for a cap on the number of refugees to be admitted if they arrive through safe and legal routes.

In its news release, the Home Office claims having a cap will make the safe and legal route option more feasible. It says:

With a clearer picture of the UK’s capacity to welcome refugees, through the cap, the government will be able to redouble efforts to help more people from all over the world to come through safe and legal routes and ensure that commitments made by councils can be met now and in the future. This will create a more sustainable and well-managed system that is fairer and prioritises both local communities and refugees.

The government is consulting local authorities because they end up having to find accommodation for refugees.

The cap will cover people arriving through the UK resettlement scheme (UKRS), the Afghan citizens resettlement scheme (ACRS) and the community sponsorship scheme. But it will not cover people arriving through the Ukraine visa schemes, the Afghan relocation and assistance policy (ARAP), the Hong Kong British national (overseas) route or the mandate scheme.

The Home Office says, after being agreed by parliament, the cap will come into force from January 2025.

Updated at 07.58 EDT

Starmer says byelection results show people ‘fed up with 13 years of decline’ under Tories

Keir Starmer is now in Tamworth where he has been speaking to supporters in the main stand at the Lamb, the home of Tamworth FC. Starmer told them:

People told me that it was not possible to win this seat and this byelection. You absolutely smashed it.

What you have seen here replicates what’s going on across the country – people are fed up to the back teeth with 13 years of decline under this government.

They want a fresh start. They want to go forward.

There were Tory voters yesterday who went to the ballot box to vote Labour. That is because they are fed up with the decline and despairing of the party they used to vote for.

Keir Starmer standing next to Sarah Edwards, the new Labour MP for Tamworth, at a rally in the constituency with supporters this morning. Photograph: Jacob King/PA

Updated at 07.57 EDT

Keegan claims there were ‘very, very few people switching’ from Tories to Labour in byelections

In an interview with ITV News Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, claimed that the byelection results “did not show a swing to Labour”.

That’s wrong. Swing is a measure in the shift in share of the vote between the two main parties, and in both seats there was a big swing to Labour.

What Keegan meant was that she thought previous Tory voters were not actively switching to Labour. A party can in theory experience a big swing against it just through supporters failing to turn out, without a single person changing sides. Keegan said:

On the doorsteps [in the byelections] there were very, very few people who were switching over. There was no real love for Labour.

Gavin Barwell, the Tory peer and former chief of staff to Theresa May, says last night’s results show the party drew the wrong conclusion from its victory in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip byelection.

These by-election results are as bad as Selby and Somerton back in July (Tamworth is the second highest swing Labour have ever achieved to gain a seat from the Conservatives). They show Sunak’s net zero pivot and conference speech have had no impact on his party’s prospects

Back in July, everyone focused on Uxbridge. Conclusions were drawn even though it was clear at the time it was down to a *local* issue and Selby and Somerton were more likely to represent the national mood. Tamworth and Mid Beds confirm that was a serious mistake

In Uxbridge and South Ruislip the Conservatives won unexpectedly after campaigning hard against the expansion of Ulez, the ultra-low emissions zone. Ulez is an anti-pollution tax, not an anti-carbon tax, but soon afterwards Rishi Sunak watered down some important net zero policies. He claimed he had been concerned that the original policies were too draconian for some time, and he wasn’t just U-turning on the basis of a byelection result, but Uxbridge undoubtedly firmed up Tory enthusiasm for measures that reduce green costs.

Gillian Keegan says she will impose anti-strike minimum service rules on schools if unions don’t agree them voluntarily

Gillian Keegan, the education secretary for England, has told teaching unions to come up with a “voluntary agreement” on minimum service levels in schools during industrial action or face restrictions being imposed.

The Department for Education said Keegan had written to teaching unions, “inviting them to discuss proposals on a voluntary basis in the first instance” that would keep schools open in some form during strikes. If they failed to reach an agreement, Keegan said she would open a consultation on imposing minimum service levels in schools and colleges, using legislation passed in July.

Keegan announced similar proposals for universities during her speech to the Conservative party conference earlier this month.

Under the new law, striking staff who fail to comply with minimum service levels could face dismissal and their unions could be sued. However, the Trades Union Congress has called the law “draconian” and the government faces legal hurdles imposing restrictions on staff in non-emergency services.

Daniel Kebede, the general secretary of the National Education Union (NEU), England’s largest teaching union, said:

The NEU strongly oppose the introduction of minimum service levels (MSLs). We do not acknowledge the validity of MSLs given their impact on the fundamental right to strike, therefore we do not believe this is an appropriate topic for the government or Department for Education to regulate.

Gillian Keegan should turn her attention to the fact that every day in schools a level of service well below what should be expected is experienced by children and young people.

Updated at 06.49 EDT

Here is my colleague Peter Walker’s analysis of the significance of the byelection results.

And here is an extract.

The Mid Beds result also carries another bad omen for Sunak and his party: the way that English voters are becoming increasingly good at deciding who they need to club together tactically to unseat the Conservatives.

This is always harder to do amid the noise of a general election, but the decision of voters to coalesce more around Labour as it became clear they had the better chance shows an arguably new level of focus in anti-Conservative voting.

Commons security staff suspend planned strike action

Security guards at the House of Commons have suspended planned strikes after being told that the introduction of an unpopular new shift pattern will be paused, PA Media reports.

More than 250 members of the Public and Commercial Services union (PCS) were due to take industrial action on 31 October, 1, 6 and 7 November in a row over night shifts. The king’s speech is on 7 November.

The union said managers had “backtracked” and agreed to suspend the implementation of a new roster while they spoke to union representatives, PA reports.

Updated at 06.51 EDT

Beth Rigby, Sky News’ political editor, is wary of suggestions that Rishi Sunak might face a leadership challenge.

On letters into the 1922, one MP tells me: “I think some will [send them] but the mood is that the game is up and even if letters went in he’d win a vote. The MPs are literally blind and they back him because he’s bought off so many with jobs”

On Tuesday next week Rishi Sunak will have been Conservative party leader for a year, and at that point his grace period ends and he can be subject to a confidence vote if 15% of Tory MPs write to the 1922 Committee asking for one. But for that to happen, 53 MPs would have to submit a letter.

Hands refuses to criticise Tory candidate in Tamworth for walking out as winner giving her speech

In his Today interview Greg Hands was also asked if he could defend the decision taken by Andrew Cooper, the Tory candidate in Tamworth, to walk off stage at the count as soon as the Labour winner, Sarah Edwards, started giving her victory speech. Here is the clip.

Conservative candidate beelines for exit as Labour wins Tamworth byelection – video

This is not against the rules, and it must have happened at some point before in the past at an election, but I can’t recall a recent precedent. At the very least, it’s rude. But it also breaks an important norm because, when defeated candidates congratulate their opponents after an election, that’s a means of acknowledging the legitimacy of the result. Storming out is a step in the direction of Trump-style behaviour.

Asked if someone who behaved like this was fit to be a Conservative MP, Hands refused to criticise Cooper. Instead he said:

I wasn’t at the count in Tamworth. But what I would say is that I’ve met Andy Cooper a few times, he’s served the country [Cooper is a former soldier], he’s done very well, he’s a strong, hard-working local councillor in Tamworth, and done very, very well. So I’m not going to criticise Andy Cooper.

UPDATE: The Labour MP Chris Bryant later said Hands should have criticised Cooper.

Of course it’s puerile to storm off before the traditional victor’s speech in a by election but it also betrays a very arrogant and entitled attitude towards the voters. Sad that @GregHands couldn’t bring himself to say that about his Tamworth candidate.

Updated at 08.20 EDT

In an interview on the Today programme Greg Hands, the Conservative party chair, elaborated on his claim that “legacy issues” had hurt the party in the byelections.

When it was put to him that people did not believe the party had changed because of incidents like 24 people being fined last week because of a party for Tory activists that breached lockdown rules, Hands said the event happened three years ago. Asked if the staffers had been fired, Hands said disciplinary action was taken at the time.

And asked about Andrew Cooper, the Tory candidate in Tamworth, posting a message on Facebook suggesting jobless parents who cannot feed their children should “fuck off” if they want state help but can still pay a £30 phone bill, Hands said that was also something that happened three years ago. Hands said he would not have chosen those words himself.

Lord Frost, the former Brexit minister who is now a prominent voice calling for the party to become more rightwing, says the byelection results show the “strategy of denial” is not working. By “denial”, he means Rishi Sunak is refusing to accept how bad the party’s plight is. He has posted these on X.

The Tamworth & Mid-Beds by-elections are extremely bad for my party @Conservatives, and I don’t think it helps to suggest otherwise, as some party figures have done this morning.

The current national polls are dreadful for us but these results are even *worse*.

The very worst current polls show us holding 100-150 seats at an election. But Tamworth is our 55th safest seat.

Yes, things are different at by elections and there were probably special factors. But these results show that the national polls are broadly correct and that a strategy of denial is unlikely to work.

If your voters don’t want to come out and vote for you then you don’t win elections. It’s as simple as that.

Re-posting this thread from June as a reminder of things the Conservative Party could usefully do to bring back its voters.

(spoiler: A-level reforms and a smoking ban are not on the list)