Kadarius Toney should be a perfect, fascinating fit in Andy Reid’s offense

Former New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman was known above all for being impulsive, which is the primary reason the Giants eventually moved on from him. Now, the 6-1 G-Men are cooking with new GM Joe Schoen and head coach/offensive mastermind Brian Daboll.

But one of Gettleman’s more impulsive moves was not able to make the transition, and that’s receiver Kadarius Toney, who Gettleman took with the 20th overall pick in the first round out of Florida. The idea with Toney was that he would use his amazing abilities in space to help quarterback Daniel Jones, but that didn’t happen enough in 2021, and it’s barely happened at all in 2022. Toney hasn’t played since Week 2 as he recovers from a hamstring injury, and on the season, he’s caught two passes on three targets for zero yards, and he’s run the ball twice for 23 yards. In his rookie season, Toney caught 39 passes on 57 targets for 420 yards and no touchdowns, adding three rushing attempts for six yards.

So, why did the Kansas City Chiefs made the decision on Thursday to trade a conditional third-round pick, and a sixth-round pick, for Toney, as they did on Thursday? And why does Kansas City’s quarterback seem so happy about it?

There are two answers: Potential, and fit. You have to assemble Toney’s splash plays the best you can out of what you have to work with, but when you do so, things start to look pretty interesting. Toney is exactly the kind of weapon Reid and Mahomes have been able to maximize over the last few years.

Toney seems quite happy about it as well, which we can say is unfair to Daboll. Still, it’s easy to see the fit, and where this could go.

(Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

In the 2021 season, the San Francisco 49ers led the league in rushing attempts by receivers by a comical margin, but the Chiefs ranked third in the league behind San Francisco’s 80 (!) and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 26, sending their wideouts on designed runs 24 times for 195 yards and a touchdown. This season, the Chiefs haven’t done that as much, for two reasons — they’ve preferred to get their rushes in more traditional running back carries, and the loss of Tyreek Hill in that trade to the Dolphins took away Reid’s force multiplier in such concepts.

However, there was this Mecole Hardman 25-yard run against the 49ers last Sunday, and this is a good place to start with Toney’s fit in this offense. Time the sweep, get everyone blocking upfield, and get the explosive play. It’s been a Chiefs staple for a while.

Now, let’s go to Toney’s 19-yard run against the Tennessee Titans in Week 1. He’s running a reverse motion here, but outside of that, if you flip the play to the left side, it’s pretty similar.

The Chiefs also love to open things up with orbit motion in the backfield, and Toney did that to a point on this play — it turned out to be a four-yard run off  a misbegotten idea to have Toney throw the ball (this run was classified as a “QB Scramble”)… but once again, his ability to create in space is obvious.

(Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

Through the first seven weeks of the season, the Chiefs lead the league in receiving yards with 2,159, and they also lead the league in yards after the catch, with 1,174. Kansas City also led the NFL in yards after the catch in the 2021 with 3,413, which goes against the idea that Tyreek Hill was just winning on a bunch of go routes and posts — he was dominant after the catch in Reid’s passing game, and Toney projects well in this regard  Last season, 237 of Toney’s 420 receiving yards came after the catch, and it’s easy to superimpose the ways in which he did it with the Giants over the ways in which Reid might ask him to add to the offense.

On this 26-yard catch against the Cowboys in Week 5 of the 2021 season, you can see how Toney creates after the catch with elusiveness, speed, and acceleration, turning a three-yard quick out into a big play.

And this 21-yard catch against the Saints in Week 4 was mostly Toney rolling through New Orleans’ defense after getting the ball seven yards downfield. You can see how the creativity in space might drive some coaches nuts, but Reid has never shied away from improvisers.

(Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports)

One way the Chiefs have regressed in 2022 — and this can be tied both to the loss of Hill and to how Mahomes is adjusting to both two-high and man coverage this season — is in the deep passing game. In 2021, Kansas City ranked fourth in the league with 34 completions of 20 or more air yards for 1,191 yards, 952 air yards, and nine touchdowns. Through seven games in 2022, the Chiefs have just nine deep completions for 325 yards, 273 air yards, and one touchdown.

Toney isn’t an established top-tier deep receiver, but he has shown abilities in this regard in limited opportunities. He caught two passes of 20 or more air yards on five targets for 64 yards in 2021, and both came against the Cowboys in Week 5.

There was this 38-yard play, where Toney worked cornerback Anthony Brown inside and out on a contested-catch fade due to a Daniel Jones underthrow under pressure…

…and this 26-yard play, in which Toney showed outstanding body control to bring the Mike Glennon boundary pass in from the right outside slot. This time, Jourdan Lewis was the victim.

Again, we’re talking more about potential than production, but it’s easy to see how it could all work.

(Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)

Throughout his career as a coach, Andy Reid has never shied away from wanting to make the most out of players whose issues — whether on or off the field — have limited their ultimate athletic potential. The return on this isn’t always perfect, but given that the Giants were listening to all offers for Toney in April after he skipped voluntary minicamp, and wanted a “significant return” at the time, getting a 2021 first-round pick for two lower picks half a year later seems like an outstanding risk/reward scenario.

Especially if Toney fits as well and as consistently in Reid’s offense as it appears he will.