Justin Holl is Broken. How Do the Maple Leafs Fix Him?

USA Today

Justin Holl is in the midst of a disaster. 

The 29-year-old has stumbled mightily out of the gate this season, sitting with just a single point in 23 games while seeing his ice time drop steadily as he and partner Jake Muzzin continue to get caved-in at 5-on-5. 

Last season, the Maple Leafs won 54.65 percent of the expected goals with Holl on the ice, a splendid number that showed just how routinely the late-blooming defender was winning his matchups in a top-four role. Fast forward to 2021-22, and that number has dropped to an alarming 50.27 percent, with Holl’s goals-for percentage dipping to a horrid 44.74 percent that pales in comparison to his 53.93 from last season. 

At the moment, Holl is broken. And the Leafs, despite all of their success, desperately need to fix him in order to achieve success when it truly matters. 

But, how? 

Well, there are three options at hand that both keep Holl in the Leafs’ organization and potentially solve this problem. 

Let’s take a look to see which, if any, could do the trick. 

Option A: Scratch Him 

See, the Leafs already went this route this year, scratching Holl for five games in early November as Timothy Liljegren made the most of his big-league promotion. The thought, at the time, was for Holl’s benching to serve as a wake-up call — to shock him back to his prior form through the most extreme measure available. 

That, obviously, has not happened. Holl’s struggles persist. And they’re only getting worse.

It’s been clear for months now that Holl’s confidence has been given the Old Yeller treatment this season: taken behind the barn and promptly shot with an old-timey rifle (spoiler alert for anyone who hasn’t seen that billion-year-old movie by now). 

Holl has basically stopped carrying the puck up the ice himself in 2021, something which takes away his ability to activate the rush himself which once served as his bread-and-butter.

A confident Holl is an aggressive Holl – someone with the mobility to be a constant zone-entry threat and the perfect foil to the more stationary Jake Muzzin. 

Without it, the two are completely out of sync – and it shows. 

Putting Holl in the press box for a second extended period this season is unlikely to help rebuild that waning confidence, especially when taking into account Holl’s history with scratches. 

Back in 2018-19, Mike Babcock’s reign of terror condemned Holl to press box purgatory for 71 of the team’s 82 regular-season games and nearly ruined his career. Keefe is obviously a more delicate (and sane) coach than his hypocritical predecessor. And while the focus should be on restoring your rapidly declining asset (Holl), it’s hard to argue against him being the odd man out of the Leafs’ top-six once Travis Dermott is fully healthy. 

Maybe this time Holl can take the scratch as less of a shock and more of a calculated reboot to strip his game down to the studs and build himself back better than ever. Or, at least, someone capable of playing NHL minutes.

Option B: Send Him Down

Speaking of being incapable of playing NHL minutes…

As radical as it sounds, sending Holl to the Marlies to play 30 minutes a night against inferior competition could be just what he needs to mend that waning confidence. It’s not the worst idea in the world, at least. And if you took Holl’s name and cap hit out of the equation, it’s hard to argue that he’s not playing like someone worthy of a demotion. 

The hitch in the giddy-up here, however, is that this would require Holl to be put on waivers. And considering how the front office tied themselves in knots to protect him in the expansion draft just a few months ago, watching another team pluck him for free is a likely nightmare scenario. 

But it’s tough to argue that Holl couldn’t use a quick AHL sabbatical. He’s acutely familiar with the Marlies and their staff, having developed into the NHL-caliber player he once was over three full seasons at Ricoh/Coca-Cola Coliseum. Down on the farm, Holl could focus primarily on skill work, play in all situations as the team’s clear no.1 option, and simply not have his every miscue GIF’ed into oblivion on a nightly basis. The pressure could ease. 

It’s easy to forget, but Holl sustained an injury near the end of the preseason, and then missed one game early this season due to a non-COVID illness. Perhaps one (or both) of those ailments is still bugging him. You don’t simply forget how to play hockey one day and never get it back. If you can make it work, a quick trip to the Marlies could be just what the doctor ordered for Holl to get his mojo back. 

Option C: Split Him From Muzzin and Stick With It

The Muzzin-Holl pairing just isn’t working. It hasn’t for a while, and nothing has shown that they’ll regain their magic any time soon.

Don’t tell Sheldon Keefe that, though. This is his comfort pair. 

Keefe has tried to split his two veteran defenders up on numerous occasions this year, most recently putting Timothy Liljegren alongside Muzzin for a few games while Holl slotted in alongside call-up Kristians Rubins. When things got dicey near the end of the Leafs’ win versus the Blackhawks on Dec. 11, though, Holl and Muzzin hopped over the boards together once again, seemingly on a mission to disprove Einstein’s definition of insanity. 

The Leafs thankfully won that game. But Einstein can sleep soundly, too. 

For as good as Muzzin-Holl has been since becoming a full-time pair when Keefe took over in 2019, it’s never been a secret as to which player has made that partnership tick. Muzzin is the straw that stirs – or stirred, I guess – the drink between the two thanks to his knack for carrying lesser-skilled partners to top-four results over the years. If you’ll recall, Muzzin is the main reason for why the Leafs could offload Nikita Zaitsev’s contract in 2019 after Muzzin turned Zaitsev into a competent defender for six games in that year’s playoffs. It’s just what he does. 

But when the engine starts failing, the rest of the vehicle usually follows suit. 

Muzzin has had an awful start to the 2021-22 season thus far. Through roughly one-third of the schedule, the 32-year-old has looked a step slower; his instincts more hesitant; his edge noticeably blunted. 

With Muzzin operating at around half capacity, what chance does Holl have?

Split these two up and stick with it. 

Injuries make this difficult, with Rasmus Sandin shelved until at least January and Dermott (who is a rocky option in his own right) working his way back to form from a shoulder injury. And that’s fine. Just make sure that whenever the line blender switches off, Muzzin and Holl are no longer together. 

Whether it’s sticking Holl with Morgan Rielly in the hope that the latter’s hot streak wears off on the former, or perhaps doubling down on a Muzzin-Brodie pairing that was teased far too briefly earlier in the year, these two need a trial separation that lasts more than a game for the sole reason that their current results are unsustainable. 

The Leafs are finding ways to win despite icing a second pair that gets caved in on a nightly basis. Which is great! But that won’t last forever. Regardless of what they try, the coaching staff needs to try something. Because this won’t last forever.