Justin Herbert’s rapid rise reminds us that evaluating QB prospects is absolutely futile

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If I were to put together a list of the quarterbacks I’d most like to build around, Justin Herbert might crack the top-five. I’m saying that now, but four months ago, I thought the guy was legitimately bad at football.

My point is, I’m an idiot. But I’m not alone. When it comes to evaluating quarterback prospects, we’re all idiots. Everyone is bad at it. NFL teams aren’t any better than your random draft analyst on Twitter. And there’s no shame in that. We’re bad at evaluating quarterbacks like people are “bad” at playing the lottery. It’s just an impossible task, and I don’t think any player illustrates that frustrating fact more than Herbert.

Don’t get me wrong, we saw glimpses of what Herbert has become with the Chargers during his time at Oregon. They were just really hard to find. Examples of him being late on throws and generally inaccurate were not so difficult to find. Neither were stats like this…

Even when Herbert was confident in what he was seeing, and getting the ball out on time, he was missing throws…

The more concerning issue, though, was his lack of decisiveness, which led to sacks or late throws into coverage.

Or, in this case, he might just straight up not throw to a receiver streaking wide open for what should have been an easy touchdown.

Fast-forward a year, and all the issues that were on his tape have disappeared. We’re still seeing all of the ridiculous displays of arm talent, but now every throw is coming out on time. An overwhelming majority of them are on target, too. The game just looks easier for him, and his numbers bear that out — even though he’s now playing professional football, on a Chargers team that is not exactly stacked with talent.

His on-target throw percentage has actually jumped from 74% in 2019 to 75% in 2020, per Sports Info Solutions. His turnover-worthy throw percentage has dropped from 3% to 2.5%, per Pro Football Focus. His average EPA per dropback has remained steady at 0.13 per play.

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So Herbert’s been more accurate, he’s not putting the ball in harm’s way as much and he’s been just as efficient. He’s also consistently making throws now that he was missing a year ago.

Why has Herbert been so much better when playing in what should ostensibly be a more difficult situation? I’m not sure I have an answer. Oregon’s coaching staff didn’t do much to showcase him for pro scouts, but the offense wasn’t awful — and all of those misses were still Herbert’s fault. At the same time, it’s not like I’m watching the Chargers’ offense and seeing next-level play-calling that would elevate a mediocre QB. Herbert really is this good.

So I think the answer is probably: He improved more, and much earlier, than any of his tape ever suggested he would. Even the most passionate Herbert supporter did not expect him to be this good so quickly.

His detractors — including yours truly — were skeptical that he would ever be able to put it together. And there’s a good reason for that. We, as a football-observing community, have spent the last decade mocking decision-makers for routinely falling in love with big quarterbacks with rocket arms and underwhelming college production — the so-called “raw” prospects.

Well, now those raw prospects are hitting at a much higher rate. Patrick Mahomes was considered raw until he won an MVP in his first full season starting. Josh Allen was still being called raw last year and is on the fringe of MVP contention in Year 3. Herbert already looks like a franchise quarterback. Meanwhile, the more “pro-ready” prospects have had a much harder time finding their footing in the league.

What lesson can we learn from all this?

Maybe, with the NFL adopting more spread concepts each year, playing quarterback isn’t as mentally strenuous as it once was. Coaches like Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are able to scheme up open receivers, and there’s less mental strain on a QB — meaning physical talent is most important. Those “pro-ready” prospects that make up for physical limitations with a stronger mental approach to the game aren’t nearly as useful as they once were.

Or maybe, all of this is random and we’re all wasting our time trying to make sense of it.

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