Justin Herbert Odds and MNF Props: Herbert Lets It Fly in SoFI

Justin Herbert has had one of the strongest arms since coming into the NFL and is not afraid to air it out when his team needs him to. With the Chargers welcoming Dallas to SoFi, our NFL picks expect the Chargers’ QB to cook.

Last Updated: Oct 16, 2023 5:55 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

As the Dallas Cowboys try to shake off the effects of an embarrassing primetime loss to the San Francisco 49ers last weekend, a Week 6 trip to face Justin Herbert and the rested L.A. Chargers looms large on the NFL odds board.

Herbert hauled the Chargers back to .500 before their Week 5 bye, and his steady excellence is in stark contrast to the under-pressure Dak Prescott, even if the MNF odds still have L.A. pegged as short home pups on MNF.

Suddenly a Dallas defense that looked spectacular in the opening weeks seems to have taken a step back — and it’s fair to wonder if some of that lights-out start was a result of facing more limited QBs. I’ll find out more about how the Cowboys hold up against Herbert’s cannon arm as I dive into the Justin Herbert odds and give you my favorite NFL picks regarding the Chargers field general.

Remember to check out our Chargers vs Cowboys predictions and best MNF prop picks as well!

Justin Herbert MNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Justin Herbert MNF prop pick Over 36.5 pass attempts (-110)

Justin Herbert comes into MNF with the benefit of bye week rest but is hampered by a fractured finger on his non-throwing hand. While he may need to be a little more cautious in the pocket, all the indications are that the finger won’t put any limitations on what he can do.

At most, I’m treating it as a minor impact, while still picking the Over on Herbert passing props with confidence.

Austin Ekeler’s return from an ankle injury should breathe life into the Los Angeles Chargers running game while also giving Herbert his security blanket pass catcher out of the backfield. But despite the Cowboys’ struggles against the run this year (123 yards allowed per game), I see LA leaning heavily on the pass to move the chains here.

The Chargers entered Week 6 in the Top 10 in passing attempts per game and I’m taking the Over on Herbert’s passing attempts prop in this MNF showdown.

Herbert went over this number in 12 of his 18 games in 2022 and he’s had 40+ attempts in two of his past three games this season, highlighted by a 40-for-47 day on the way to 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. He also had a 31-for-41 outing against Dallas in his second year as a pro.

Though the Cowboys are allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (168), I’m not buying that as a reason to think Herbert will be kept in check.

Dallas’ past five games have included matchups against Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, and Mac Jones, and none of that will prepare the visitors for all the ways that Herbert can take over. I expect the Chargers to give their best player every chance to win this game.

Prop: Herbert Over 36.5 pass attempts (-110 at bet365)

Justin Herbert MNF same-game parlay

Herbert Over 36.5 pass attempts

Herbert Over 1.5 passing TDs

Chargers ML

Seeing the 49ers pile up 423 yards of offense and six touchdowns against the Cowboys last Sunday was an eye opener. While the Chargers don’t have all the weapons that San Francisco can call on, I like Herbert’s chances of carrying on where Brock Purdy left off.

Purdy threw for four TDs on SNF and I like the prop for Herbert to finish with at least two passing scores. He’s had six in his last three games.

Ekeler’s ability to split out as a receiver will make a big difference in the red zone and create more room for Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer, and even Donald Parham Jr. — who caught two TDs against the Vikings.

I’m also riding with the hosts  on the moneyline. Though the wounded Cowboys are sure to bring more fire after a week of being picked apart for their no-show in Week 5, the Chargers have won two in a row and have an extra week of rest in their favor. 

It’s tough to put a lot of faith in Prescott at the moment after throwing three interceptions against San Francisco and failing to reach 300 passing yards in a game yet this season.

L.A. has won three of the past four meetings between these teams — and the large number of Cowboys fans at SoFi Stadium will be no surprise for the Chargers.

With Herbert and Ekeler reunited and Derwin James back patrolling the secondary, I like the hosts to eke out a win.

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