Josh Freed: Whatever’s leading Legault to his decisions, it isn’t science

© Provided by The Gazette When our COVID numbers were soaring, you could argue a curfew was an understandable emergency experiment. But seven weeks after being implemented, there’s no proof it’s helping, Josh Freed says.

As March break looms and our curfew continues, the mind of Premier Legault has become a mystery to me.

We’ve had months of super-strict rules, social isolation and much sacrifice — and we still can’t see a friend or relative indoors. So why can we suddenly all crowd into cinemas for March break, as of yesterday?

In fact, why are we even having March break when last year’s had such deadly results that Quebec made global headlines?

Why haven’t we postponed our break like Ontario?

Instead, we’re opening movie theatres where up to 250 people can gather and share air. Premier Legault says it’s to entertain families with kids.

But Quebec’s latest figures show the highly infectious U.K. variant is spreading fast among youth under 18, who account for 40 per cent of Montreal’s variant cases.

Another 20 per cent of variant cases are among people aged 35 to 44, believed to be parents of these kids.

These are the same families who will now fill our movie theatres — and quite possibly spread the variant, whether or not they’re eating popcorn .

After last spring’s disaster, we blamed vacationers who went south. Will we soon hear similar stories about those who went to movies?

If Quebec wants to ease our isolation, why mass movies? Wouldn’t it be safer to let us invite a friend or two into our homes — instead of gathering in anonymous crowds in theatres that Toronto and New York still haven’t opened?

What is our premier thinking? This provokes another question about Legault’s decision-making — though many readers may disagree with me.

That’s regarding the 8 p.m. curfew now in force for seven weeks, denying Quebecers the basic right to leave their homes.

Legault says the curfew must remain because it’s keeping Quebec’s case numbers down. But is it? Join me for a mini-math class:

On Friday, Quebec’s new case numbers were down to 815 , from a peak of 3,127 post-Christmas. That’s an excellent 74 per cent decline, which Legault largely credits to the curfew.

But in the same period, Ontario’s daily new cases have fallen 70 per cent from their peak of 4,249 to 1,258 on Friday — though they had no curfew.

Alberta has fallen 81 per cent from its December peak of 1,887, again with no curfew (and their restaurants reopened three weeks ago).

The entire U.S. is down almost 78 per cent since its Jan. 10 peak, again with no curfews — and much of the country never locked down.

In fact, no one in North America has a curfew except us Quebecers — yet numbers everywhere are similarly plummeting. Must only we be treated like children?

Disease experts are speculating about why worldwide case rates are crashing — even India is down 90 per cent.

Speculation 1: Everyone stopped behaving during Christmas, driving cases upward — but then we all got scared and started really behaving.

Speculation 2: The disease itself has seasonal ebbs and flows — and for mysterious reasons it’s taken a huge global nap.

Speculation 3: Vaccines and some herd immunity are starting to help the U.S. and several other countries — though not Canada.

But no experts anywhere have speculated that worldwide numbers are falling because of Quebec’s curfew.

So when our premier suggests Quebec’s falling rates are linked to our curfew, he’s taking credit for a natural phenomenon, like saying: “The weather’s been warm — must be the curfew.”

Keeping people locked indoors at night is a huge decision and should be justified by strong evidence.

But our daily case decline isn’t any different than other places.

When our numbers were soaring back in December, you could argue a curfew was an understandable emergency experiment. But seven weeks later, there’s no proof it’s helping.

In fact, it could be making things worse . Many young Quebecers are anxious, depressed and have reported mental health issues.

Under-35s I speak to all say the curfew has made life even more stressful, as they can’t even go skating or walking at night.

Some say it’s become more common to secretly sleep over at a friend’s or date’s house, so they won’t be caught outside after 8 p.m. Is this safer?

Much like opening up movies during March break, the curfew seems unscientific and illogical, based on personal feelings or politics — not science.

So why aren’t more people protesting in the streets (at least before 8 p.m.)? I think Quebecers are so worn down, most don’t question decisions anymore — numbed like sleepwalkers.

Also, Premier Legault is a well-intentioned guy with a sympathetic bedside manner — and Quebecers have near-religious faith in him. But again, what is he thinking?

In recent days, Legault has said he sometimes disregards his health officials like Horacio Arruda when they suggest loosening some rules. But if the premier’s not listening to health experts, how does he make his decisions?

To me, logic says don’t open movies, tighten up March break and give isolated Quebecers some breathing room by curbing a curfew that has no effect.

Legault may be sympathetic, but sympathy isn’t science.

joshfreed49@gmail.com

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