Joe Biden leads in Texas in latest poll

WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden leads in Texas in a poll of more than 3,000 likely voters released Thursday that showed him with a 1-percentage point edge over President Donald Trump.

The Morning Consult poll of 3,347 likely voters conducted between Oct. 11 and 20 carries a margin of error of 1.7 points. It showed Biden leading Trump 48 to 47.

It’s not the first to show Biden with a lead in Texas, but it’s by far the largest survey to show such a result. A Public Policy Polling survey of 721 likely voters released earlier this month showed Biden leading 48-49.

On Wednesday, a Quinnipiac University survey showed Biden and President Donald Trump in a dead heat in Texas.

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The Morning Consult poll comes just hours before Biden and Trump are scheduled to meet for their final . It showed a close Senate contest as well, with Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn leading Democratic challenger MJ Hegar, a former Air Force pilot, by five percentage points.

It’s the latest poll to show Texas is staring down its first competitive presidential race in decades. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Who’s the pollster? Is it public poll or internal polling from a campaign? Campaigns can release anything they want and usually have a reason for doing so, so they may not be the most reliable numbers to go by. National polling outlets, however, might not be as familiar with Texas and could miss some nuances that those in the state are seeing.

Who was polled? There’s a big difference between registered voters — who may or may not actually cast a ballot — and likely voters, who have a history of voting and are more likely to do so again.

How was the poll conducted? Was it over land lines? Via cell phone? The shift from land lines has made it harder for pollsters to reach likely voters, especially young and minority voters, who are less likely to have land lines.

When was poll conducted? Elections can change quickly. “Apoll is great to show you how people feel that particular day, period. You just can’t put all your faith that will hold true two weeks from now,” said Renee Cross, senior director of the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs.

Margin of error? Are Trump and Biden really tied in Texas? The Quinnipiac University poll showing them both at 47 percent had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, meaning either of them could actually have a lead of nearly 6 points.

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Experts say polling in Texas should be viewed cautiously this year, perhaps more than ever, in part because of that increasing competitiveness. Pollsters say Texas isn’t easy to gauge accurately even in a normal year, and 2020 is anything but that.

Texas Democrats were encouraged by the polls, but urged voters to not get complacent.

“Polls don’t vote. We need all hands on deck,” said Abhi Rahman, a spokesman for the party. “We’re on the verge of history.”

ben.wermund@chron.com