Jason Gough’s forecast: Wind, possible storms put an end to false spring

Imagine a football ref, turning on his mic: “False start: spring. That’s a spot foul and an automatic cool down.”

After the mildest day of 2021 so far, it’ll end up being the mildest day of the month. We’ll do OK temperaturewise Saturday but it’ll be a wet day for the most part. From there, the cool down commences, bottoming out Monday before a rebound takes hold. Looking down the pike, that rebound looks to also retreat by late next week, the first few days of April. Hey, at least there are no snowstorms in the forecast. Check out my video from Delmar on Thursday.

A mild start to the day! That’s the good news. The bad news is we have rain around, round one of two for the day.

Temperatures this morning are in the 50s for the most part (Albany’s average high for today is 49 degrees) with rain and showers lifting north and northeast through mid morning. That’ll have us catch a little break later this morning before we turn our attention to a cold front that’ll be swinging through as we get into the afternoon.

Clouds will hold in place for the most part under the dry skies, and that’s a good thing. There is plenty of energy in the atmosphere, so we don’t need the sun cooking up air at the ground. That energy will punch into our area and it may pop an isolated storm or two ahead of the cold front. Note: We typically see this starting in about six weeks or so, and usually we DO have the sun to bring us into a severe weather day.

Today won’t be a widespread issue with respect to severe weather but any storm that does fire ahead of the front may bring some gusty wind with it, perhaps even some rotation. The larger issue will be a line of showers and some rumbles of thunder along that front. Thunder won’t be a big deal but the wind will be, as it’ll be gusting over 50 mph in spots as it pushes through.

Through the afternoon, temperatures will hold in the upper 50s north to 70 degrees or more south before falling off as the front pushes through.

Behind that front, showers will taper off but the wind will continue to blow and gust to 50 mph as we get into the evening and night. Temperatures will be falling off pretty quickly, settling in the 30s to 40 degrees overnight. The wind will continue to howl into tomorrow morning with clearing skies.

THE WEEKEND

The stage will be set for a pretty decent Saturday all in all and it’ll be by far the better of the two weekend days. We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds through the day. While the wind will be blowing in the morning, it’ll be coming down through lunchtime into the afternoon. Highs will top out in the upper 40s to the mid 50s, still an overachieving day of temperatures.

Clouds will start to show up into the evening and they’ll thicken up overnight. Temperatures will once again drop to the 30s to 40 degrees.

Sunday will feature showers moving in through the morning, translating to a heavier and steadier rain, that’s A. B is another bout with wind and falling temperatures.

It’ll be breezy ahead of a cold front as the rain falls, but temperatures will still rise into the 50s in a lot of spots. As the front pushes through later in the day, colder air will be on its heels. Leftover moisture will mix with and change to wet snow in the higher elevations, especially north and west of Albany. It’ll be windy into the night and throughout the day on Monday.

NEXT WEEK

Monday will feature more clouds in the morning, more sun in the afternoon. It’ll be a rather raw day, especially compared to the gems we’ve had a few times this month. Highs will stay only in the 30s and low 40s but the wind will make it feel colder than that.

Better Tuesday with more sun, less wind and some 50s around. A bit milder Wednesday before another system brings rain in for Thursday with cooler temperatures to follow.

Getting into spring-cleanup mode? Check my practical forecasts for the latest tips.  Not ready to give up on snow? You can still rely on my ski forecast.