Jamie McLeod-Skinner, Whose District Biden Decisively Won, Risks Major Loss

Progressives had pinned their hopes of keeping a critical House seat on Democratic candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner, but with less than two weeks until the midterms, it looks like the party is headed to a defeat in Oregon.

On Wednesday, McLeod-Skinner’s race against Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer was moved from a “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican” by Politico’s Election Forecast—a rarity in a state that has been seen as steadily blue on a national level.

The extremely tight race has caused fears that McLeod-Skinner’s primary win has jeopardized Democrats’ chances of keeping Oregon’s 5th congressional district seat. In the spring, she successfully unseated moderate Democratic Representative Kurt Schrader, despite the efforts from establishment Democrats, including endorsements from President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, to get Schrader re-elected.

Jamie McLeod-Skinner is in a tight race against her Republican opponent for an open House seat in Oregon’s 5th District. Jamie McLeod-Skinner

Schrader had hoped the president’s support would have helped in a district that Biden carried with 53 percent of the vote in 2020. But the congressman’s primary loss has suggested Biden’s word may not mean as much as had hoped, and that the district may no longer be the Democratic stronghold it once was.

Oregon’s 5th District has been represented by a Democrat since 1997 and went to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2012.

Yet, McLeod-Skinner is hopeful that the results of the election won’t pan out the way election forecasters are currently projecting.

“Right before we won the primary, national political pundits said the same thing,” she said in a statement shared with Newsweek. “Oregon’s Fifth is won on the ground, and we’re seeing great momentum as we’ve knocked on a record number of doors, doubled what my opponent could raise, and swept the Oregon editorial board endorsements.”

As crime has emerged among the key voting issues for this year’s election, McLeod-Skinner, who has previously aligned with groups pushing for police budget cuts, is in a tough position.

“Whether it be killings, violent crimes—they’ve all increased. Our leaders are well aware of it. You can see it with your own eyes,” Chavez-DeRemer told Politico, adding “My opponent marching in those movements sends a very different message.”

McLeod-Skinner’s campaign has repeatedly pointed to her record as the interim city manager of Talent, Oregon, during which she advocated for and successfully increased police funding—a move that undercuts the image her GOP opponent has tried to paint.

Fundraising efforts also suggested that Democrats are prepared for a defeat by Chavez-DeRemer, who has a 54 in 100 chance of winning according to poll tracker FiveThirtyEight.

“Democrats moved money from this open seat into two neighboring districts, a sign of pessimism about the party’s chance to hold it after Representative Kurt Schrader was ousted in the May primary,” Politico’s forecast read Wednesday.

Progressive PACs have jumped into the race hoping to give McLeod-Skinner a financial boost in the final stretch of the election cycle.

The American Prospect reported last week that Fight Corporate Monopolies PAC purchased a $200,000 TV and digital ad buy for the Democratic candidate to attack Chavez-DeRemer’s personal investments.

Republicans are expected to take the House in this year’s midterms. Politico’s Election Forecast currently shows Democrats favored in 195 seats, nearly two dozen seats short of what is needed for the majority. There are still 27 races in the “Toss Up” column, but Democrats would need to win all but three to keep control of the House.

Update 10/27/22 3:22 p.m. ET This story was updated with comments from McLeod-Skinner.