Is trading Luke Schenn the right move for the Canucks? Could J.T. Miller or Brock Boeser be next?

Luke Schenn wanted to stay as a Vancouver Canuck. He made that abundantly clear publicly.

The idea of re-signing him certainly had appeal too. Schenn emerged as a protector on the back end with his physicality. He could log reliable minutes and competently platoon on Quinn Hughes’ pair. Schenn was an extremely popular teammate with his calming presence. The leadership role he assumed was vital, especially in the wake of former captain Bo Horvat’s trade.

All of that makes the Canucks’ move to ship Schenn to Toronto for a 2023 third-round pick tough for this market to digest emotionally. It was ultimately the move the Canucks had to make though. Vancouver needs to continue accumulating assets to build for the future and the club doesn’t have many desirable trade chips.

Following the Schenn trade, the Canucks have seven draft picks in the first four rounds of the 2023 NHL draft (two first-rounders, one second, two thirds and two fourths). Assuming they keep those selections, that’s the most draft picks the Canucks have owned in the first four rounds of a draft in franchise history. It’s exactly what a prospect pool that ranked 28th in the league needs.

Re-signing Schenn prior to the deadline wouldn’t have been straightforward either considering the steep, inflating market for physical, right-shot defencemen. Ilya Lyubushkin, 28, and Jan Rutta, 32, both earned $2.75 million cap hit contracts in free agency last summer. Lyubushkin got two years of term and Rutta three. Erik Gudbranson signed a four-year, $16 million contract last summer with the Blue Jackets as well.

Schenn, who’s scored a career-high 21 points in 55 games, would have had a much higher market value than the $850,000 cap hit he signed for last time. Vancouver should circle back on Schenn in the summer to see if a reunion is possible at a reasonable rate. But for now, they simply needed to cash in.

Many were hoping the Canucks would find a way to net a second-round pick for Schenn. The supply and demand dynamics shifted to create a buyer’s market for defencemen. Many high-profile defenders that weren’t expected to become available like Dmitry Orlov and Mattias Ekholm have already been moved, while others like Nick Jensen and Radko Gudas may be on the block as well. That’s on top of already-established options like Jakob Chychrun, Vladislav Gavrikov and John Klingberg.

Given the glut of defence options on the market, I think the Canucks did a decent job to add a third-round pick. It’s in line with what the Flyers received for Justin Braun as a rental last year.

It’s been a crazy past few days with all the speculation and rumours surrounding J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser. Both players are owed significant dollars and term beyond this season.

Since Feb 1, there have been more than 25 NHL trades made. There are only three players with a $3 million or higher cap hit and term beyond this season that have moved: Ekholm, Nino Niederreiter and Nikita Zaitsev (a cap dump that the Senators paid to get rid of).

Let’s start with Miller’s situation. Right off the bat, there’s uncertainty around his injury situation. He didn’t fly with the team and play against Dallas. Miller’s camp has described the injury as something relatively minor, but the Canucks announced it as a week-to-week ailment. That adds an immediate hurdle.

Nonetheless, colleague Shayna Goldman and Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli among other journalists have reported that Miller’s name has surfaced in trade discussions.

It’s going to be very difficult to consummate a trade prior to the deadline, however. Miller has a $5.25 million cap hit for this season before his seven-year, $56 million extension kicks in for 2023-24. NHL rules dictate that the Canucks would not be able to retain any salary on his current contract unless they applied the same retention percentage through the entirety of his extension. In other words, any prospective buyer would need to find a way to absorb Miller’s full $5.25 million cap hit for this season.

That’s a problem because there are only six NHL teams currently projected with more than $2 million in cap space (the Predators, Senators, Blackhawks, Red Wings, Ducks, Coyotes, and Sabres) according to CapFriendly. It’s why so many trades like the Horvat, Ryan O’Reilly, Timo Meier, Patrick Kane, Dmitry Orlov, Vladimir Tarasenko and Jake McCabe m0ves all required some combination of retentions and/or third-party brokers to make the cap math work.

The Canucks won’t have any of those crucial avenues available to them for Miller. That’s why I’d be shocked if Vancouver finds a way to trade him ahead of the trade deadline. There are so many short and long-term financial obstacles on top of the uncertainty around Miller’s injury.

One thing I’ve learned from current and former NHL executives while working on my story of how trades are negotiated is that the seeds for some trades that happen at the draft are often planted prior to the deadline. That’s worth keeping in mind because the Canucks will have a window to deal Miller at the draft prior to his extension and NMC kicking in on July 1. Trade conversations may not yield anything before Mar 3 but they could pay dividends down the line.

Pittsburgh colleague Rob Rossi also had some interesting reporting that suggested it was the Canucks that approached the Penguins regarding Miller, with GM Ron Hextall showing muted interest. If that’s true, it suggests that the Canucks may be ready to accept that they made a mistake with the Miller signing and explore exit options. That would be a positive indicator because the club would need to swallow its pride and accept less in a trade than what they could have gotten for him a year ago, in order to facilitate a trade prior to July 1.

Miller’s future will remain a very fascinating storyline to monitor heading into the offseason.

As for Boeser, I’d expect it to be very difficult for the Canucks to complete a deal without retention or taking a sizeable contract back. Management should be asking themselves what kind of return would justify retention. For example, maybe it’s worth it for the Canucks to consider retaining $1-1.5 million through 2024-25 if a team offers say a second-round pick, but if the offers are below that, it could be in the club’s best interests to just hold on. Boeser should theoretically become more valuable down the road when there’s less term left on his deal.

Is it best for the Canucks to hold firm on an asking price and potentially hang onto him beyond this deadline? Or is the opportunity cost of holding Boeser’s cap hit too high, in which case they should retain and accept a modest return just to get him off the books?

It’s not an easy decision.

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