Is Ilya Samsonov on the right track? Breaking down film of his strengths and weaknesses

Just as rookie Joseph Woll was finding his groove as the Maple Leafs’ No. 1 goaltender, he shockingly collapsed on his ankle during a routine glove save in a game against the Ottawa Senators last week.

With Woll out week-to-week with a high ankle sprain, Toronto’s hopes in net once again rest on the shoulders of Ilya Samsonov, at least for a while. Samsonov has struggled mightily this season. Among the 79 NHL goalies to appear in a game entering Wednesday, he ranked 69th in save percentage (.884) and 66th in goals saved above expected (minus-4.0).

After serving as the starter for the majority of last season, and beginning the season as the 1A for the Maple Leafs, he quickly surrendered those duties to Woll. With Woll out, Toronto will lean more heavily on Samsonov.

Is his game in the shape it needs to be to shoulder that load? There are signs of improvement, like in his 18-save shutout over Nashville on Saturday. There are also still lingering issues in his structure that reared their head in Monday’s loss to the Islanders.

Samsonov’s biggest struggles likely stem from his structure leading up to shots and his compressed stance at times. He often overcomes these deficiencies with athleticism and strong puck-tracking, but they’re likely why he’s not as consistent as he — or the Maple Leafs — would like.

One example of Samsonov’s structure — or lack thereof — was Jason Dickinson’s hat-trick goal for the Chicago Blackhawks on Nov. 24. Toronto eventually lost the game 4-3 in overtime, and Samsonov wouldn’t see the net again for the next five games, when Woll went down with the injury.

In this clip, the puck starts in the corner to Samsonov’s right. He’s leaning against his right post with his legs straight rather than loaded with weight and ready to explode. That may not sound like a big deal, but in the NHL, every tiny detail adds up, and can be the difference between saves and goals.

When defenseman Jake McCabe shovels an ill-advised backhand pass into the slot, Samsonov still hasn’t activated his legs or hands, leaving his gloves draped to his sides away from his body while he watches Auston Matthews battle for the puck.

By the time the puck pops out to Dickinson in the slot, Samsonov’s lack of structure has him behind the play and chasing. He pushes out to the top of his crease, but with a very compressed stance. His elbows and knees are both squeezed tight and his chest is bent over, making him small and leaving a lot of net to shoot at.

This goal is ultimately the result of a bad turnover that handed Chicago a dangerous look from right in the slot, and it would’ve been an impressive save. Still, if Samsonov had good structure and activation earlier in the play, he would’ve given himself a much better chance to make it.

The brain can only process so much information at once, and rushing into a stance milliseconds before the shot is unnecessarily adding to that processing. If he had been in position earlier, with his gloves projected in front of him covering more net, Samsonov’s excellent puck-tracking and hand-eye coordination likely would have him make that save more times than not.

The late-arriving structure was subtle on that play, but was more obvious on Dickinson’s goal earlier in that same game. On this play, Dickinson skates down the left wall, while Samsonov sits submissively with his heels on his goal line.

As the skaters are battling for the puck near the blue line, Samsonov is watching, but not activating his legs or hands to prepare for a chance. Once Dickinson skates in, he is early to drop to his butterfly, and does so far too deep in his net. To make matters, worse he makes himself small by not projecting his gloves out in front of him, and the puck finds room under the blocker.

Samsonov spends a lot of time in the butterfly and reverse vertical horizontal (RVH) positions. He has good lateral explosion from the position, and makes some nice saves doing it. However, his reliance on the position can sometimes cost him.

The purpose of the RVH is to seal the short side on plays in tight and from behind the net. It’s appropriate on wraparound attempts, or tough-angle shots on which the short side is the only real option. Some goalie coaches like to call the area where a goalie should be in RVH the “golden triangle.” It extends from each goalpost through the bottom of the faceoff circle to the boards.

When the puck moves toward the blue line, out of that area, RVH leaves far too much net open high and to the far side to be the optimal save selection. Samsonov’s metrics via the NHL’s puck-tracking data show that he’s allowing too many goals from the sides of the ice, where very few goals typically come from.

Samsonov has allowed 12 goals from those areas over the last two seasons. For comparison, Woll hasn’t allowed a single goal from either side in his 22 games over that span.

The most recent goal from that area came Monday against the Islanders, when Samsonov stayed in his RVH position long after the puck left the “golden triangle.”

When Brock Nelson releases the one-timer from the left circle Samsonov is down and watching, while making himself very small in net with a compressed stance. He’s sitting on his heels rather than standing with his chest tall and to the puck, and there’s so much room on the far side.

Once again, this is a case of Samsonov making life harder on himself with sub-optimal structure and positioning leading up to the shot. He has the athleticism and reaction time to be an excellent goalie, and when he’s playing confidently, those traits shine through. He tracks pucks very well and is a gamer, never giving up on a shot. It leads to acrobatic saves like this glove save on David Pastrňák’s blistering one-timer on Nov. 2.

That game, in which Samsonov stopped 38 of 40 shots, was one of his strongest performances of the season. He looked confident and in-rhythm, and the result was a less-stressful night in the crease. Even in that game, he wasn’t technically perfect, but more than made up for it with compete level and acrobatics.

On this play, he actually dropped to the butterfly early anticipating a shot, but had the leg strength to explode across the crease for a desperation save with the blade of his skate anyway.

Looking at Samsonov’s save percentages by location, it’s no surprise he’s strongest on high-danger shots from in tight, and weakest from the mid-range area from 29 to 43 feet from the net.

In tight, Samsonov’s athleticism shines. He led the entire NHL with a .875 save percentage on those shots last season, well above the league-average of .802. This year, he hasn’t been quite as strong, but it’s still his best area.

On shots from a bit farther out, his compressed stance hurts him more. Last season, he ranked in the bottom half of goalies from that distance, and this season he’s struggled even more with a .878 save percentage on those shots.

How good can he be for Toronto moving forward? A lot of it will depend on how the Maple Leafs defend. Even while analyzing Samsonov’s game, it’s hard to ignore the amount of turnovers and blown defensive coverages in just these clips alone.

Last season, the Maple Leafs ranked 11th in both expected goals allowed (2.89) and high-danger chances allowed (11.98) per 60 minutes. This year, they’ve dropped significantly, to 20th in expected goals allowed (3.17) and 25th in high-danger chances allowed (13.04).

Samsonov’s game has a bit of volatility, but when he’s confident and on his game, he’s a good starting goalie. Last season proved that. He was 11th in wins (27), tied for sixth in save percentage (.919) and 10th in goals saved above expected (18).

Perhaps Woll’s development into a No. 1 option shook Samsonov’s confidence a bit. Maybe the poor defensive start to the season by the team overall added to that. Whatever the case, he lost his groove and needs to find it again. He’s shown signs that he’s on the right path.

(Photo of Ilya Samsonov: Steven Ryan / NHLI via Getty Images)