Is Colby Covington Worth a UFC Futures Bet for 2024?

Futures betting for the UFC is much more complicated than on the NBA, NFL and MLB.

The UFC doesn’t have championship matches based on wins and losses, with this weekend’s UFC 296 title fight between Leon Edwards (21-3) and Colby Covington (17-3) a prime example.

Covington received the title fight without a winning streak over another fighter (Belal Muhammad) who hasn’t lost in his last 10 fights. Covington spews vile trash talk and sells more pay-per-views. So, he got his third shot at undisputed welterweight gold.

Fortunately for Muhammad, it appears there is no more denying him his title shot following the outcome of Edwards-Covington. Muhammad reportedly serves as the backup fighter for UFC 296’s main event in case of a last-minute injury or illness, a spot traditionally used for a fighter who is next in line. Regardless of the Edwards-Covington winner, further refusing Muhammad would be shameful.

Also on the UFC 296 main card is a three-round welterweight fight between Shavkat Rakhmonov, an undefeated juggernaut from Kazakhstan, and veteran Stephen Thompson. Rakhmonov, a perfect 17-0 with a 100% finish rate, opened as a 5/1 favorite on DraftKings and was bet to a better than 6/1 favorite. He’s the most significant betting favorite on the card.

With the rapid decline in hype surrounding Khamzat Chimaev of Chechnya, who has difficulty making the 170-pound welterweight limit, Rakhmonov could be the division’s future. If not for Muhammad, the 29-year-old Rakhmonov would likely be next in line for a title shot following a convincing win on Saturday.

Rakhmonov is significantly younger than Edwards (32), Covington (35) and Muhammad (35).

With 2023 almost over, DraftKings allows UFC fans to wager on who will be welterweight champion at the end of next year. It’s an intriguing betting market.

Edwards is the favorite to be champion on Dec. 31, 2024, at +140 odds, followed by Muhammad (+300), Rakhmonov (+450) and Covington (+500). There are odds for more than two dozen fighters.

It’s hard to recommend UFC futures with how many scenarios can unfold.

While it appears that Muhammad is guaranteed the next title shot, a Covington victory on Saturday could tempt the UFC to give dominant lightweight champion Islam Makhachev the next opportunity at 170. Covington has been calling for the matchup, as Makhachev has +600 odds to hold welterweight gold at 2024’s end.

It would be promoted as a banal USA vs. Russia confrontation (Makhachev is from Dagestan), but it would generate more buzz than Covington versus Muhammad. Perhaps enough money could convince Muhammad to fight Rakhmonov or Edwards (a rematch) in the meantime.

Of course, if Edwards versus Covington is a back-and-forth barnburner that leaves fans clamoring for a sequel, the first half of 2024 could see Edwards-Covington again. This scenario would likely only happen with a narrow Covington victory.

If there’s a convincing win in Saturday’s main event, Rakhmonov could face the loser of the bout. Assuming Rakhmonov beats Thompson, he will likely fight once more before a crack at the belt. There’s an outside chance that the UFC will give Rakhmonov former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in the first half of 2024.

Usman (+1100 to be welterweight champion at the end of 2024) has a path to reclaim his belt. The two fights between Usman and Covington were legendary, and the UFC could be interested in a trilogy. Usman, one of the best welterweights in history, could sit on the sidelines until late 2024 and fight Covington in a possible second title defense. It’s also possible that Usman would need a win before another title shot.

The man holding the welterweight strap is the favorite to have it at the end of 2024, and he’s still in his fighting prime. He’s also the moneyline favorite on Saturday (-160 on DraftKings). Edwards would likely be a 2/1 or 3/1 favorite against Muhammad, as he looked great in their first matchup that ended in a no-contest due to an eye poke.

However, +140 odds are unattractive because Edwards likely needs to win three fights (Saturday’s included) to remain champion at the end of next year. He could be a slight underdog in a Rakhmonov matchup.

All said, this leaves us with a simple conclusion: While the UFC welterweight futures market is interesting, no one’s odds are long enough to bet.

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