Is Andrei Kuzmenko one of Canucks’ most dynamic forwards? 4 takeaways from his NHL start

Andrei Kuzmenko was one of the Canucks’ biggest wild cards heading into this season. The elusive, skilled winger was the top Russian free agent from the KHL this past summer and was sought after by many teams around the league. Vancouver won the sweepstakes and signed him to a one-year ELC, the maximum allowed under the CBA given his age, immediately adding a prized asset to the organization for, essentially, free.

It was a home run for a Canucks team that needed to inject cheap, productive talent into the lineup without a high acquisition cost in the way of trade chips.

European free agents, however, are total unknowns until they actually arrive in the NHL. Sometimes you strike gold with a bonafide star like Artemi Panarin, others like Vadim Shipachyov flame out immediately and there are tons of outcomes in the middle.

We’ve officially hit the 10-game mark of the Kuzmenko project in Vancouver, with the 26-year-old notching three goals and six points. That’s obviously not a big enough sample of games to draw conclusions from, but there’s still a lot we can glean from his NHL tape so far in terms of strengths, weaknesses and potential impact moving forward. Here are four observations/takeaways.

Predatory offensive instincts on the rush

One of the most underrated skills in hockey is the natural offensive instincts of a forward to consistently get open and find soft ice where he can get shots off. That talent flies under the radar because it isn’t as flashy as dazzling speed, sweet dekes, or a brute-force drive to the net. But finding time and space in premium areas of the ice is practical and necessary. What good is it to have a player with an elite shot, for example, if he never has the smarts to create the space necessary to actually shoot?

This is where Kuzmenko has done a clever job of carving out a niche. He plays with top talent at all times, with Elias Pettersson at five-on-five and on the first-unit power play. Kuzmenko isn’t an electric, go-to puck carrier so he understands that his job is to ensure that he consistently gets open in dangerous pockets of the offensive zone, while leaving the distribution responsibilities to Pettersson. Kuzmenko’s successfully done that over and over again, which explains why his individual shot rate at five-on-five ranks 51st among all NHL forwards who’ve played at least 50 minutes this season. He’s produced 14 high-danger chances at five-on-five according to Natural Stat Trick, which leads the Canucks and is tied for 22nd among forwards.

5v5 High-Danger Chance Leaders

A lot of Kuzmenko’s damage has come off rush attacks, where he’s shown predatory instincts with and without the puck. That’s why he and Pettersson have clicked so well — Kuzmenko understands optimal spacing and takes intelligent, deliberate routes to beat defenders and become a passing option. Below is a great example from a regroup rush chance on the power play where Kuzmenko takes the outside lane to covertly beat the defender rather than trying to win a straight-line race.

When J.T. Miller picked up the puck on the regroup, Kuzmenko could have made a direct beeline and continued slashing across toward the left side as the arrow indicates.

But for that to work, he would have to win a race and would have received the puck at an awkward angle where it’d be hard for him to get a good shot off, especially with a defender right on his back. Instead, knowing that Miller had Bo Horvat as a short passing option if necessary, he took more of a backdoor route to get behind his check undetected.

Kuzmenko’s able to create dangerous rush chances even when his team doesn’t have an odd-man rush. When you’re attacking in a three-on-three or two-on-two setting the biggest thing you want to avoid is being in a flat-line position across as attackers — it’s too easy to defend. Kuzmenko seems to have an innate understanding of how to effectively stagger players to add layers to a rush attack. In the sequence below, he entered the zone on a non-threatening two-on-two with Curtis Lazar, with both players on the same flat horizontal plane.

Kuzmenko stopped up and cut across laterally to criss-cross with Lazar, which completely changed the dynamic of the rush. Lazar ended up tipping Kuzmenko’s high-slot shot for a goal.

Here’s an example of Kuzmenko applying the same concept, except without the puck. What starts as an ordinary three-on-three becomes dangerous quickly when Kuzmenko aggressively takes the outside lane to get behind the defence.

He showed the same understanding on a Garland rush below. Instead of making a beeline for the net, Kuzmenko kept himself as a staggered trailer option which resulted in a decent look.

You also love to see one-touch rush passes like this:

Sneaky, smart ability to get open on the backdoor, live at the net front

Some coaches stereotype Russian players as skilled perimeter players who don’t have a nose for the greasy areas. As for Kuzmenko, he’s done all of his actual scoring right around the blue paint.

Kuzmenko’s knack for hunting open ice on the backdoor specifically has led to two of his three goals and a lot of additional Grade-A chances. It’s been the bread and butter of his role on the first-unit power play since he hasn’t been leaned on too often as a playmaker below the goal line.

The goals themselves are tap-ins but it takes hard work and smart timing to creep into those positions undetected.

Kuzmenko’s goal against the Penguins was a reward for the persistence he’s shown going to the net and trying to screen goaltenders. He’s also unlucky not to have scored more goals to this point considering the volume of chances he’s generated. Kuzmenko’s shot just 4.76 percent at five-on-five, with one goal to show for, whereas Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals model estimates that a league-average finisher would have buried three goals given the same quality of chances.

That means Kuzmenko’s probably due for a bounce, which makes sense considering a couple of the backdoor plays he’s been absolutely robbed on. Either that or maybe he’s a poor finisher.

Kuzmenko’s defensive flaws

Bruce Boudreau didn’t mince words when I asked whether Kuzmenko’s defensive game needs improvement. The response was a clear “he knows he’s got to be a bit better.” That definitely tracks when watching game footage.

Kuzmenko can be caught puck-watching and doesn’t shoulder check often enough to keep an eye on where his check is going. Below you’ll see an example of that. Carolina’s very clearly going to win the loose puck and Kuzmenko’s the deepest forward back. Instead of curling and shadowing Jordan Staal, he takes a strange route that leaves Staal wide open to set up the Canes’ critical 3-1 goal.

He also has a tendency to stop moving his feet, which in conjunction with a lack of shoulder checks, leaves him vulnerable to a defensive breakdown like the one below.

Kuzmenko’s wall work on breakout attempts has also been inconsistent. There are times when he’s looked sharp making a quick play under pressure, but there are other moments where it’s led to issues. Here’s an example of a turnover.

Against the Penguins, there was a rough sequence where he didn’t come back in the defensive zone to help at all. Jack Rathbone rimmed the puck around the boards in a position where the winger (Kuzmenko) should have been the first player on the puck. Instead, Kuzmenko totally backed off and it resulted in Tyler Myers taking a penalty.

What about the Pettersson factor?

Evaluating Kuzmenko is tricky because for the most part, he’s been stapled to Pettersson’s flank. Pettersson’s ability to make controlled offensive plays in transition is unmatched on this roster. Given Kuzmenko’s rush success, particularly when he’s finding open ice and receiving passes, it’s fair to wonder if he’d be notably less effective without Pettersson.

The Pettersson/Kuzmenko duo has controlled nearly 60 percent of shots at five-on-five, however. Pettersson is unquestionably the focal point and primary driver for that play-driving success, but those kinds of numbers are impossible to attain without Kuzmenko adding meaningful value as well.

Kuzmenko profiles as a complementary piece for a scoring line rather than the engine. With that in mind, Vancouver needs to be calculated about how they approach Kuzmenko’s future this offseason until they can gather more intel on whether he can slot up and down the entire top nine or if he’s a one-dimensional fit.

All video courtesy Sportsnet

(Photo of Andrei Kuzmenko: Steven Bisig / USA Today)