Intelligence Report Reveals Where Russia is Making Progress Amid Failures
Zaitsev #Zaitsev
Russian forces have been making some progress recently in their eight-month war in Ukraine, despite being held back by recent successes of Ukrainian counteroffensives, according to the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence.
“In the last three days, pro-Russian forces have made tactical advances towards the centre of the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast,” the Defence Ministry said in an intelligence briefing on Friday, adding that Russia also “likely advanced” into the villages of Opytne and Ivangrad.
The ministry also said that there have been “few” settlements taken over by Russian forces or separatist forces since early July, but forces led by the private military company Wagner Group have made some local advances in the Donbas region.
The Wagner Group is likely to be “heavily” involved in the fight in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. The group is a Russian mercenary organization that has been fighting as part of Russian paramilitary forces in Ukraine.
“Russia likely views seizing Bakhmut as a preliminary to advancing on the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk urban area which is the most significant population centre of Donetsk Oblast held by Ukraine,” the intelligence report read.
Russia is also “very slowly” making progress in central Donbas, where it is executing offensive operations, but “its overall operational design is undermined by the Ukrainian pressure against its northern and southern flanks, and by severe shortages of munitions and manpower.”
Russian military leaders recently ordered troops in Donetsk to stop fighting temporarily, reportedly over low morale among soldiers and desertion, Alexander Štupun, the Ukrainian spokesperson of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in an update on Wednesday.
“The main reason is the extremely low morale and psychological state of replenishment, numerous facts of desertion from the number of mobilized and non-compliance of combat orders,” Štupun said.
Ukrainian officials recently said that Russia failed to advance in five cities in Donetsk in one day.
“Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine have repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Mayorsk, New York, Zaitsev, Nevelske and Pobeda,” the operational update read.
Kyle Haynes, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at Purdue University, told Newsweek on Thursday that halting the fight in Donetsk “mostly confirms what everyone already knew: that Russia’s mobilization is not going smoothly and will not make a meaningful difference on the battlefield for at least the next several months.”
Russian troops have been struggling with obstacles that include poor leadership and recruiting motivated troops, while Ukraine has taken back occupied territories in recent weeks. Russia’s hindered progress is also partially caused by the bolstered military support to Ukraine from the West.
Ukrainian authorities said that it took back thousands of square miles of territory in September and continue to make progress in October.
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry for comment.
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