Iceland Volcano Poses Less Threat To Christmas Flights Than ATC Strike

TOPSHOT – This photo taken on November 13, 2023 shows a crack cutting across the main road in … [+] Grindavik, southwestern Iceland following earthquakes. The southwestern town of Grindavik — home to around 4,000 people — was evacuated in the early hours of November 11 after magma shifting under the Earth’s crust caused hundreds of earthquakes in what experts warned could be a precursor to a volcanic eruption. The seismic activity damaged roads and buildings in the town situated 40 kilometres (25 miles) southwest of the capital Reykjavik, an AFP journalist saw. (Photo by Kjartan TORBJOERNSSON / AFP) / Iceland OUT (Photo by KJARTAN TORBJOERNSSON/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

The volcano on Iceland’s Reykjanes peninsula has erupted but currently does not pose a threat to aviation. The Icelandic Meteorological Office’s aviation map marks the volcano’s activity as orange, which means the eruption produces no or negligible ash clouds that could impact jet engines. Both Keflavik Airport and Reykjavik Airports are operational. Isavia, which manages Iceland’s airports is monitoring the situation. Passengers are advised to check with their airlines and with the airports for any changes. However, planned strikes by Iceland’s air traffic controllers still threaten to disrupt air travel in Iceland for the holidays.

Recent Eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula

Iceland’s Met Office reports the current eruption is near Grindavik, approximately 4 km northeast of the town. The eruptive fissure stretches about 4 km, with its endpoints near Stóra-Skógfell and Sundhnúk. The distance from the southern end of the fissure to Grindavik is almost 3 km.

As of the latest update, the intensity of the eruption is diminishing. “The fact that the activity is decreasing already is not an indication of how long the eruption will last, but rather that the eruption is reaching a state of equilibrium. This development has been observed at the beginning of all eruptions on the Reykjanes Peninsula in recent years,” Iceland’s Met stated. The Met will continue monitoring the eruption and publishing updates.

Iceland’s Air Traffic Controller Strikes

The more significant threat to holiday travel in Iceland is the ongoing labor action by Iceland’s 152 air traffic controllers, who have coordinated strikes last week and this week. The collective agreement of air traffic controllers expired on October 1 and the Air Traffic Controller Association claims salaries lag behind other professions in the industry. It is the third time air traffic controllers have organized a strike in Iceland over the past five years.

The ATC Association is engaged in contract negotiations with The Confederation of Icelandic Enterprise, representing various aviation entities, mediated by The Office of the State Conciliation and Mediation Officer, though progress has been slow in reaching an agreement.

The work stoppage from strikes so far has halted traffic for hours, except for search and rescue, ambulance flights, and Icelandic Coast Guard operations.

Impact on Icelandair and Travel Plans

KEFLAVIK, ICELAND – JUNE 9: In this handout image provided by Icelandair, proud sponsors Icelandair … [+] send-off the Icelandic national football team to make sporting history as they participate in their first World Cup, on June 9, 2018 in Keflavik, Iceland. Earlier this summer the players and transatlantic airline, Icelandair, co-created Team Iceland Stopover, a series of 90 minute football inspired experiences for travellers to enjoy. (Photo by Sigurjon Ragnar Sigurjonsoon for Icelandair via Getty Images/Getty Images)

Icelandair via Getty Images

Icelandair, the nation’s flagship carrier, has faced significant disruptions due to the strikes, impacting around 13,000 passengers last week. The airline says strikes scheduled for this week could disrupt air travel for 23,000 passengers.

The air traffic controllers strike between 4:00 am and 10:00 am when most of Icelandair’s flights from North America arrive at Keflavik Airport, and most of the airline’s flights to Europe depart. With low domestic flight demand, Icelandair and low-cost PLAY Airlines, rely on North American and European traffic, including passengers who connect through Iceland to travel between the continents. Icelandair reported that 36% of its passengers in November flew to Iceland as a destination, and 40% were transfer passengers. Of PLAY’s passengers in November, 32.7% traveled to visit Iceland, and 41.2% were connecting passengers.

“We are facing a very serious situation, and it is urgent that a resolution will be reached. Iceland is particularly vulnerable to such labor actions as an island nation that depends solely on flight connections for travel to and from the country,” Bogi Nils Bogason, President & CEO of Icelandair, said in a statement. “The actions have already caused negative financial impact that will increase significantly as we get closer to the holiday season. The largest impact is on those who deserve it the least – people who are traveling to meet their families and friends at this important time of the year. We will, of course, do all that we can to get people to their destinations before the holidays, but we are not certain that it will be possible during this heavy traveling period. It is, therefore, crucial that a resolution will be found as soon as possible.”

Icelandair and PLAY Airlines Are Recovering

Despite some decrease in demand in November due to a potential threat of a volcanic eruption, Icelandair and PLAY Airlines have been recovering this year from the pandemic slow-down.

Last month, Icelandair served 282,000 passengers, a 13% increase compared to November last year. North Atlantic passenger numbers increased by 37%. As of the end of November, Icelandair had flown four million passengers, a 17% increase over last year.

“In November, we continued seeing an increase in the number of passengers and a stronger load factor compared to last year, on 12% capacity increase,” Boganson said. “This is despite some negative impact on the booking flow sparked by media reporting on the Reykjanes peninsula seismic activity. Going forward, there is some impact on bookings and revenues for the next few months, but looking at the longer term, the booking flow is moving towards its former strength.”

PLAY Airlines carried 107,236 passengers in November, an increase of 42% over November 2022. PLAY Airlines had flown 1.4 million passengers through November of this year, with an average load factor of 84%. However, the airline’s passenger load factor decreased from 79% last year to 74.5% this year in November.

The airline also attributed the decrease to the seismic activity in the Reykjanes Peninsula, which resulted in fewer last-minute bookings during the month.

“This temporary cooldown of demand can be felt in our load factor data for the month of November, and it’s clear that the same will apply for December as well,” said Birgir Jonsson, CEO of PLAY, in a press release of the company’s results. “In recent days, we have seen the demand returning to the market, which is very positive and reassuring for the coming months but a little too late for the short-term travel season, before Christmas and in the new year.”

Iceland’s Parliament May Step In

As Iceland’s aviation industry faces fresh challenges from the volcano, resolving the air traffic controller strikes remains a critical priority for the country’s airlines and for the thousands of travelers hoping to reunite with families and friends during the holidays.

Though not officially confirmed, some reports suggest the Infrastructure Ministry could be preparing a bill to break the strikes. Minister of Infrastructure Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson says the parties involved in the negotiations bear responsibility to resolve their dispute “right before Christmas, following a natural disaster that has cost this society a considerable amount.”