Hurricane Delta now a Category 2 and will get stronger; landfall expected on Gulf Coast late this week

Delta has morphed into a formidable hurricane overnight.

Delta continued to rapidly strengthen in the western Caribbean and was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds as of Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Delta is on path for the Gulf of Mexico and eventually the Gulf Coast, with landfall expected sometime late Friday or early Saturday. Landfall could come anywhere from western Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, with central Louisiana in the bullseye right now.

But first it has to cross over part of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, which could suffer through Delta near its peak. Landfall could come there by early Wednesday morning, according to the hurricane center.

The forecast path has shifted more to the west in the short-term but remains roughly the same for the U.S. Gulf Coast, where Delta could make landfall by late Friday or Saturday. Delta is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the Gulf Coast but not a major hurricane, according to forecasters.

Wind shear is expected to increase near the coast,and water temperatures are cooler, which should help Delta to lose some of its intensity.

The hurricane center’s long-range forecast path has also stayed relatively stable, with areas from western Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle still in the cone of uncertainty.

Delta will make its first strike on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early Wednesday and then head into the Gulf of Mexico.

Delta may not be done strengthening. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Delta to reach Category 4 strength in about 24 hours.

As of 4 a.m. CDT Tuesday, Hurricane Delta was located about 420 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and was moving west-northwest at 15 mph.

Delta had winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane.

Delta could become a major hurricane by Wednesday and maintain that intensity into Thursday.

A major hurricane has winds of 111 mph and higher.

The hurricane center thinks Delta could top out as a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds in about 24 hours.

The National Weather Service in Mobile continued to watch Delta very closely on Tuesday. Forecasters there said Delta is expected to turn northeast before making landfall on the Gulf Coast, but when that turn actually happens will greatly affect how it affects the Alabama coastline.

Even if Delta makes landfall in Louisiana the storm will likely bring storm surge, dangerous surf, heavy rain and the threat of tornadoes to Alabama over the weekend.

“… it should be noted that track errors this far out average 160 miles and additional track adjustments are likely,” the weather service said Tuesday.

“Also note the forecast cone of uncertainty for Delta extends east to encompass the entire local forecast area. Impacts may also be realized outside of the cone depending on the strength and size of the storm. Long story short, we are far from being out of the woods just yet and it never hurts to be prepared.”

Delta is expected to move inland and could cross into Alabama as a tropical storm or depression on Saturday, bringing the threat of heavy rain, tornadoes and gusty winds well inland.

The National Weather Service in Birmingham said Delta could bring 3 to 5 inches of rain to parts of central Alabama and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

Forecasters are still assessing the tornado threat.

Here are the warnings and watches as of Tuesday:

* A hurricane warning is in effect from Tulum to Dzilam, Mexico, and Cozumel.

* A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth and from Mexico’s Punta Herrero to Tulum and from Dzilam to Progresso.

* A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Cuban province of La Habana.

Delta could bring a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, the hurricane center said.

Delta will also bring 4 to 6 inches of rain to the Yucatan through midweek.

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