How to argue about politics this Thanksgiving

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If you’re going to argue about politics this Thanksgiving and want to sound like you know what you’re talking about, here’s a guide on how to do it. Here’s what’s happening on four of the most pressing political questions right now.

1. Could President Biden lose the election next year?

Yes, it’s possible: Americans are worried about his age. They aren’t giving him credit for the economic recovery after the pandemic. And from his unwavering public support for Israel, to his struggles to forgive as many student loans as he promised, to his failure address the climate crisis as fully as environmentalists want, as well as Congress’s inability to pass voting protections, Democrats worry he’s alienated his supporters.

“I am very concerned that the Democratic base — particularly younger Democrats — may decide to stay home in the next presidential election,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) told The Washington Post’s Early 202 newsletter. (Elections in such an ideologically split America are more about bringing out your own voters than winning over the other side.)

The case for Biden winning: The threat of a national abortion ban under a Republican president, plus a second Trump presidency, may be enough to motivate liberals to go vote.

“Joe Biden is going to be the nominee, and he is the best bet to beat Donald Trump, and people have to help us make that happen because the alternative is Donald Trump and is a catastrophe for American democracy,” a top Democratic strategist, Dmitri Mehlhorn, told The Washington Post.

2. How seriously should we take Trump’s authoritarian lean?

He has promised to exact retribution on his enemies, and he’s called them “vermin” like fascist leaders of the past. Trump is scaring a lot of Republican leaders.

“This is an existential moment for the country,” the former head of the Republican National Committee, Michael Steele, told me. “Do you really want to live in a country where the president of the United States is going after his political enemies?”

Many Republicans who worked for Trump are aghast that millions of voters still support him when he’s been crystal clear about his plans to turn away from democracy if elected.

“What’s going on in the country that a single person thinks this guy would still be a good president when he’s said the things he’s said and done the things he’s done?” Trump’s former chief of staff John F. Kelly told The Washington Post’s Josh Dawsey.

Steele added that he’s frustrated that the media sometimes equates concerns about how Trump and Biden would do their jobs. For instance, is Biden’s age really in the same risk category as Trump’s authoritarian tendencies?

3. What did Hunter Biden actually do that’s wrong?

The president’s son is charged by the federal government with illegally buying a gun. He could face charges soon on dodging taxes. But he’s facing accusations — without evidence — from Republicans that he and his father improperly enriched themselves. Here’s what we know he did.

Hunter Biden did trade on his father’s name: He made ethically and politically questionable business deals with the Chinese and Ukrainians while his father was vice president. He would put his father on speakerphone during business dinners, as an apparent power flex. He knew opportunities came to him because of his connections to his dad, writes The Washington Post’s Matt Viser, who uncovered this 2011 email Hunter Biden wrote to a business partner: “It has nothing to do with me, and everything to do with my last name.”

There is no evidence Hunter Biden involved his father in business schemes: Now-President Biden didn’t try to hide that he knew about his son’s foreign business deals. And he didn’t appear to actively discourage his son’s work, writes Matt. But there remains no evidence that father and son were working together, in any way, to enrich themselves while Biden was vice president, or to improperly use the office of the vice presidency.

So did Hunter Biden do anything wrong? It depends how you define “wrong.” Making money isn’t illegal, and trading on connections is a time-honored tradition in Washington. But ethics experts have raised concerns that Hunter Biden’s work abroad allowed foreign companies to have a sheen of authority and presented a conflict of interest for his father.

4. Can any other Republican beat Trump in the primary?

Some Republicans say no way. The first votes in the primaries are cast in January. He has no criminal trials between now and then, and after 91 indictments, his lead over the rest of the Republican presidential field looks like this:

“What would make voters this past few months pull away from Trump when they haven’t the past year?” Steele, the former chair of the Republican Party, scoffed.

But Trump isn’t inevitable, says journalist Salena Zito, who covers conservative politics. She said Trump voters might tell pollsters they like him, but they tell her they’re still deciding who to vote for. “They have a hard time differentiating their respect for what he did and giving him their vote again,” she said.