How Nikki Haley won Vermont

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign stop in South Burlington on Sunday. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

The day before Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican presidential primary on Wednesday, she won her first and last state: Vermont. 

In the 14 others to cast ballots on Super Tuesday, the former South Carolina governor was blown out of the water by former president Donald Trump, now the presumptive GOP nominee. Haley lost by margins of more than 50 percentage points in eight of those states. 

But in Vermont, according to unofficial results released by the Secretary of State’s Office, Haley bested Trump 49.3% to 45.1%. (Her only other victory came Sunday in the District of Columbia.)

The secret to Haley’s success in the Green Mountains appears to have been people like Marley Beers — a Winooski independent who typically votes for Democrats and expects to back President Joe Biden in November. On Tuesday, she requested a Republican ballot and voted for Haley.

“I don’t really want Trump to have a very easy path in getting the Republican nomination,” Beers explained. 

The role of crossover voters — in this case, independents and Democrats who chose to take part in the Republican primary — was “huge, huge, huge, huge,” according to Rep. Ashley Bartley, R-Fairfax, a co-chair and leading organizer of Haley’s Vermont campaign. 

Republican Gov. Phil Scott, Haley’s most prominent supporter in the state, agrees. 

“Without the independents in particular coming in and grabbing a Republican ballot, it wouldn’t have happened,” he said in an interview Wednesday. “I don’t know how many Democrats, but I’m sure there were some — more of an anti-Trump vote.”

Vermont’s open primary system allows each registered voter to request any party’s ballot on primary day. But because there’s no formal party registration in the state, there’s no way to say for sure how many independents or Democrats took part in the GOP primary. 

Other metrics, however, make a compelling case that Bartley and Scott are right. 

Tuesday’s election was not an especially high-turnout affair. Close to 142,000 Vermonters cast ballots — compared with roughly 197,000 in both the 2020 and 2016 primaries. (Those years, Vermont’s own Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent, was seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, likely juicing voter participation in his home state.) 

Turnout tends to be highest in years in which there’s no incumbent president — and both parties have competitive primaries — such as in 2008, when close to 195,000 people cast ballots in Vermont’s primary. 

But despite Tuesday’s humdrum turnout, more Vermonters (roughly 73,000) cast Republican ballots than in any presidential primary since 2000. That year, then-Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., was giving then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush a run for his money in the GOP primary, while then-Vice President Al Gore had nearly knocked out then-Sen. Bill Bradley, D-N.J., in the Democratic primary.

Since then, a majority of Vermont’s primary voters have taken Republican ballots only twice: in 2012 and this year. In both instances, a Democrat held the White House and faced little intra-party competition, while the GOP race was contested.

“This election was not especially exciting on the Democratic side,” said Jim Dandeneau, executive director of the Vermont Democratic Party. His “vibes-based assessment” is that a solid majority of Vermonters who cast ballots for Haley on Tuesday were Democrats. 

“I think the dominant factor here is that there are a lot of Democrats nationwide and in Vermont who would crawl over broken glass to make sure Donald Trump does not get elected president again,” Dandeneau said. “And you saw a lot of them pull a Republican ballot yesterday to try to stop him.”

Haley’s greatest support in Vermont came from Democratic strongholds. 

She won more than 70% of the Republican vote in such liberal bastions as Norwich, Montpelier and Shelburne — and generally did best in Chittenden County, central Vermont, the Upper Valley and the Middlebury and Brattleboro areas. 

Haley ran up her margins in many of Vermont’s largest municipalities, such as Burlington (where she won 1,517 votes to Trump’s 559), South Burlington (1,370 to 516) and Williston (970 to 456). 

Trump, meanwhile, did best in traditionally conservative areas, such as Rutland, Franklin and Bennington counties, as well as the Northeast Kingdom. He had the widest margins in Rutland City (1,032 votes to Haley’s 721), Swanton (630 to 320) and Milton (1,023 to 733). 

To a certain extent, Tuesday’s results suggested that Haley relied on a similar coalition of Republicans, independents and Democrats as Scott has in each of his runs for statewide office. 

“I would have to say I believe there are a lot of moderate centrists in Vermont,” Scott said. “A lot of them vote for me, obviously. I think it’s the same coalition, maybe expanded a little beyond that” to include anti-Trump Democrats who would not vote for Scott. 

According to Scott, who has consistently opposed Trump and never voted for him, Haley owes her success in Vermont to her increased willingness to take on the former president directly. 

Scott said he’d initially been “more in the Chris Christie camp,” referring to the former New Jersey governor, largely because Christie ran the most anti-Trump campaign of this year’s Republican primary. After Christie dropped out in January — and just before the New Hampshire primary — Scott offered a tepid endorsement of Haley that focused more on his own opposition to Trump. 

By the time Haley appeared by Scott’s side at a rally in South Burlington on Sunday, she had grown more critical of Trump and, as a result, Scott had grown more comfortable backing her, he said.

“Nikki Haley finally (came) to the realization that that was the only way she could elevate herself — to start talking about what Donald Trump couldn’t do for the country,” Scott said. 

Haley speaks in South Burlington on Sunday. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

Other than appear at the rally and lend his name to text messages the Haley campaign sent to Vermont voters, Scott said he didn’t do much on a practical level to help her in Vermont and wouldn’t take credit for her victory in the state. 

The Haley campaign itself didn’t invest much in the way of resources in the only state it won. The campaign bought some radio ads in the state, according to Vermont Republican Party chair Paul Dame, and deployed two staffers in the closing weeks of the race, according to Bartley. 

Otherwise, Bartley said, “It was a tried and true Vermont grassroots campaign.” 

Campaign volunteers largely focused on explaining to voters what an open primary means, Bartley said, and encouraging independents and Democrats to vote in the GOP primary.

So what does Haley’s victory in Vermont say about the state and its voters?

“I think it shows that Vermonters have always prided themselves on being independent thinkers and being willing to go against the grain,” Dame said. “And we certainly saw that.”

Scott agreed, saying he was “proud that we sent the right message.” Nevertheless, Haley’s departure from the race Wednesday left him feeling deflated.

“It’s just discouraging,” he said. “I’m sincerely worried about the country and the direction we’re going.”

Erin Petenko and Emma Cotton contributed reporting.