How Mitch Marner is turning things around and what it means to him and the Maple Leafs

It hasn’t always felt this way but it’s true: Mitch Marner is on pace for another monster offensive season.

Marner’s current 82-game pace after 29 games: 37 goals, which would be a career-high, and 96 points, which would come just shy of the career-best 99 points he posted last season.

This season feels hugely important to Marner and his long-term future with the Toronto Maple Leafs. That’s what’s so strange about his start and speaks to his calibre as a player: Marner hasn’t been Marner and still, amid a recent hot streak, ranks as one of the most productive players in the league.

Consider this: Marner is tied for eighth among all NHLers with 20 five-on-five points, which matches Auston Matthews for the Leafs lead and has him only a point back of five others for third in the NHL.

Marner has scored 10 five-on-five goals, the same number as David Pastrnak and Brock Boeser, more than William Nylander, Connor McDavid, and Jack Hughes, and just two back of Matthews and some others for the NHL lead.

In some ways, it feels like Marner is turning things around after an underwhelming start. In other ways, not so much.

What the heck is going on? What is Marner focused on right now? And what does it mean for his future?

Attack mentality

Marner has been scoring a lot lately, with eight goals in his last nine games. He’s constantly toggling between his first (and second) instinct of passing and shooting it more often.

“I always talk about just trusting my own shot and trusting the ability,” Marner said. “I’ve still gotta do that more, for sure. I’ve gotta realize that even throwing that (puck) to the net, throwing that (puck) to the pads, can result in pretty good things happening for our team going downhill. That’s where the mindset’s just gotta turn a little bit more for me.”

Marner concurred that the best stretch of his NHL career came during the second half of the 2021-22 season when he went on an absolute tear after returning from a shoulder injury, leading the league with 76 points, including 29 goals, in 46 games.

He shot the puck as aggressively as he ever has in that stretch.

“That’s what you gotta do is just find quiet ice and good ice and try to be open as quick as you can for players to make plays to you and get it on and off your stick quickly,” he said.

Over the last 10 games, playing with John Tavares instead of Matthews (mostly), Marner has attempted 38 shots at five-on-five, one more than Nylander. When Marner is Marner, the Leafs see him attacking opponents who have the puck and stripping it from them; attacking open ice and making defenders quake in their skates with his ability to make plays for others and shoot the puck.

Marner has been doing more of that of late, including frequent breaks behind the defence.

“I’m just trying to make sure that I just trust it and don’t get discouraged with it,” Marner said of a shooting mentality.

Marner is still averaging the fewest shots per game of his career, thanks to the power play where Marner has 10 shots all season. He’s trying to boost those numbers from his still new-ish position on PP1: Stationed to the left of the crease.

“(What) I haven’t done enough is take the puck to the net or stuff the puck and create havoc that way,” Marner said.

Marner notes that he tends to pass in those spots. When the puck comes his way down low by the goal line, penalty killers have no choice but to turn their heads and look his way – which means that any one of Matthews, Tavares, or Nylander might be creeping their way open.

He can’t help but pass them the puck.

The unusual five-on-five numbers

It seems odd that Marner is sitting among the league leaders in five-on-five production when just about every indicator suggests he’s been much less effective there than in years past. An on-ice shooting percentage of almost 13 percent (which would be a career-high) has something to do with that.

What’s odd exactly?

Marner’s assists are down, the primary assists in particular are way down.

SeasonAST/60Primary AST/60

2018-19

2.1

1.8

2019-20

1.7

1.2

2020-21

1.9

1.4

2021-22

2.2

1.3

2022-23

2.0

1.5

2023-24

1.5

0.7

Marner has just one primary five-on-five assist over the last six weeks, a 17-game game stretch.

Perennially among the league leaders in that department, Marner has fewer such assists all season (five) than Matthews (seven), Nylander (seven), Tavares (six), and team leader, Max Domi (eight).

And that feels right in line with the eye test. Marner hasn’t made as many plays.

As coach Sheldon Keefe said shortly before breaking up Marner and Matthews on Nov. 28, “They’re not making plays; plays are just dying on their sticks.”

That’s another oddity from Marner’s season: The Leafs aren’t generating offence like usual when he’s out there. Consider that two seasons ago, the team pumped out 41 scoring chances per 60 minutes with Marner on the ice at five-on-five. This season? Just under 31 per 60.

Shots, shot attempts, high-danger attempts, expected goals — it’s all down.

The Leafs’ best line so far this season featured Tavares alongside Nylander, and Tyler Bertuzzi. The unit has cooled considerably with Marner in Nylander’s place.

Tavares and Bertuzzi with…

Per 60 minsMarnerNylander

GF

2.2

3.3

GA

1.7

1.1

SF

25.8

39.3

SA

28.9

28.9

XGF

2.5

4.1

XGA

3.0

2.0

The Leafs have outscored teams 9-4 over the last 10 games with Marner on the ice at five-on-five. And yet, they’ve been largely outplayed in those minutes winning only 43 percent of the expected goals.

The only Leaf forwards with worse numbers in that span play on the fourth line.

Marner hasn’t always buzzed with the same pace as the Leafs had been accustomed to. This kind of thing never seemed to happen in previous seasons.

There have been more hints of the Marner of old re-emerging though.

He’s thieving more pucks, creating more plays, and slowly, getting his swagger back. Marner has traditionally started slow and gotten better from there. And maybe that’s all this is (was?) and Marner will inevitably find his ace form and maybe even crack 100 points for the first time.

The future

The Leafs can sign Marner to a contract extension on July 1.

Unlike Matthews a year earlier, there’s been little talk in the marketplace about that possibility. And for good reason: Unlike Matthews, the Marner extension doesn’t feel like a sure thing. Too many variables still need sorting:

• How do the Leafs perform in the playoffs?• How does Marner perform in the playoffs?• What happens with Nylander’s next contract?• If the Leafs pay Nylander upwards of $11 million annually, do they want to pay Marner even more than that, potentially, too?• And if they don’t want to meet that price, what then? Marner holds a full no-movement clause. The Leafs can’t move him without his consent. Would he want to stick around if things go poorly again?

The clearest path to Marner securing his long-term future with the Leafs: Rock out in the second half and in the playoffs, especially.

Sticking around on a long-term deal (his current contract expires after next season) would put Marner on the path to one day becoming the Leafs’ all-time leading scorer, quite a feat, potentially, for a local kid. Marner is already eighth in that department and might well be sniffing Ron Ellis for sixth by the time this season is done.

He would be a near-lock to pass Mats Sundin for top spot were he to sign (and stay) beyond 2025.

Maple Leafs’ all-time scoring leaders

RankPlayerPoints

1

Mats Sundin

987

2

Darryl Sittler

916

3

Dave Keon

858

4

Börje Salming

768

5

George Armstrong

713

6

Ron Ellis

640

7

Frank Mahovlich

597

8

Mitch Marner

588

9

Auston Matthews

579

10

Bob Pulford

563

Another long-term deal with the Leafs would also make Marner a slam dunk, essentially, to pass Börje Salming and become the franchise’s all-time assists leader. He’s just over 200 assists back right now.

A lot will have to happen for that to come to pass, starting with Marner’s confidence and play rising when it matters most.

“I think mental strength is a real complicated thing sometimes, especially in this market, in this sport,” Marner said. “Obviously a lot of us put a lot of pressure on ourselves to be the best we can be every night, and if that falls a couple times short of what you like then you start thinking about yourself. ‘I need to be better. I need to help out more and make more of an impact in games.’

“It’s just knowing that you have the skill and ability to do magical things out there and trust in your ability to do it.”

(Photo: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, and Evolving Hockey