How J.D. Vance won an Ohio U.S. Senate race that captured national attention | Analysis
Ohio #Ohio
The outcome of Ohio’s U.S. Senate race was never supposed to be a question.
Former President Donald Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2016 and 2020. Once a bellwether for presidential races, the state has trended toward Republicans as white, working-class voters abandon the Democratic Party. Democrats have seen fewer and fewer successes in statewide elections.
Yet the race to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman became one of the most-watched in the nation as Republicans fought harder than planned to keep a seat critical to a GOP Senate majority. Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan raised millions of dollars and took advantage of a bruising GOP primary to keep the race close until the very end.
Start the day smarter. Get all the news you need in your inbox each morning.
But “Hillbilly Elegy” author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance put any doubts to bed Tuesday when he won the race by roughly 7 percentage points, according to unofficial results.
Election results: How the Senate is shaping up
The latest: Election results live updates: Control of House, Senate still up for grabs. Here’s what we know
Here are key takeaways from the contentious race.
J.D. Vance cast himself as foil to Biden, Democrats
The GOP message ahead of Tuesday’s midterms was universal: High costs at the grocery store and gas pump are weighing on Americans.
Vance beat that drum throughout the race, contending the U.S. should encourage more energy production to reduce costs. He blamed federal spending sanctioned by President Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress for high inflation rates. Beyond the economy, Vance railed against current immigration policy and tied instability at the southern border to drug overdose rates in Ohio.
Ohio’s Senate race was a referendum on Democratic leadership, Vance argued, and he was the antidote.
That discontent helped get Vance to the finish line as he worked to reunite the party after a messy GOP primary. Some Republicans still weren’t thrilled with Vance when Tuesday rolled around, but they didn’t want to give the seat up to a Democrat, either.
“I’m a Republican; I’m not a J.D. Vance Republican,” said Mark Durket of Sycamore Twp. “I did vote for him because I didn’t want to see two Democrats for Senate in Ohio. I can’t remember the last time Ohio had two Democratic senators. So that was important to me, even though I didn’t like the candidate.”
Vance appealed to some voters who admired his backstory, and he promised to be a different kind of senator for a different kind of Republican party. At 38, he’ll be one of the youngest members of the U.S. Senate and the first Ohioan to win a Senate seat without having ever run for office.
“One thing that’s going to happen, hopefully, is that the party’s going to get a lot younger, a lot of new blood and hopefully some new thinking in the United States Senate,” Vance said at a campaign event on Sunday.
Vance the statesman?
Portman is known for his ability to broker deals and work across the aisle to pass laws, including the infrastructure package that will help repair Ohio bridges and roads. Vance took on a statesman-like tone near the end of his campaign and pointed to several areas where he thought he could work with Democrats.
“Whether you voted for me or not, the thing that I promise to do is go to the United States Senate and fight every single day for the people of Ohio,” Vance said during his victory speech Tuesday.
But Vance has revealed his differences from Portman more than once. He claimed there was illegal voting “on a large-scale basis” in the 2020 election, and he encouraged people to support those who were charged with crimes in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. He said he didn’t “really care” what happens in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and argued the U.S. should focus more on the southern border, even as Portman made Ukraine a key priority.
He also opposed the infrastructure bill that his predecessor helped craft.
In a statement Tuesday, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown alluded to the bipartisan work he and Portman accomplished together: “I look forward to working with J.D. when it’s in the best interests of all Ohioans and continue the work Sen. Portman and I have done to move our state forward.”
The dynamic between Vance and Brown will unfold ahead of Brown’s reelection bid in 2024.
Tim Ryan gave Republicans a run for their money
Ryan raised $48 million since he began his campaign and spent almost all of it saturating the airwaves. He spoke to independents and moderate Republicans with the awareness of someone who knew he faced an uphill battle. His ads criticized Democrats and commended former President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
The end result was still a loss, but Ryan proved to be more successful on Tuesday than fellow Democrat former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley was in the governor’s race. Ryan had 47% of the vote compared to 37% for Whaley. That could leave Democrats wondering whether Ryan tapped into a blueprint for making inroads with voters they lost to Trump.
“You’ve got to go everywhere,” Ryan said at a campaign stop last week. “You can’t be afraid to go into red counties. You can’t be afraid to go on to Fox News town halls. You should not be afraid to go on right-wing talk radio. You really have to lead, and you have to show people you care about them. I think for too long, many Democrats…would not go to these places, and the people feel like Democrats don’t understand them.”
Ryan’s strategy also forced national Republican groups to spend money in a state that seemed safe. The Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund funneled over $30 million to Ohio that could’ve been used in other battleground areas. Instead, the outside money helped Vance get his message out and keep up with Ryan’s fundraising advantage.
“Democrats still have a chance to hold the U.S. Senate,” Ryan campaign strategist Justin Barasky tweeted Tuesday. “Tim Ryan forced national Republicans to spend $50M to beat him in Ohio and he deserves a ton of credit.”
But while Ryan’s war chest helped him stay competitive, it couldn’t change the political realities of Tuesday’s election.
“I just think there’s a saturation level you reach,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for Cook Political Report. “Even if you have all this money, the fundamentals of a state are hard to overcome.”
University of Cincinnati student Emma Balcom contributed to this report.
Haley BeMiller is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: How J.D. Vance won an Ohio U.S. Senate race that captured national attention | Analysis