How Alexander Isak ousted Callum Wilson as Newcastle’s first-choice striker
Isak #Isak
A pair of man-of-the-match performances have transformed the Alexander Isak narrative.
Those inside the club accepted that spending £60million (now $74.2m) on Isak was a gamble, but a calculated one. Now the board’s decision to smash Newcastle United’s transfer record is being belatedly vindicated.
“Everything a centre-forward needs, he has,” Eddie Howe said. “He’s capable of great things.”
But, having managed only five Premier League starts up until March, primarily due to a four-month injury layoff, Isak appeared destined to end his first season with significant questions over his suitability and durability. There was a brilliant bow at Anfield and a last-minute winner against Fulham, but only fleeting glimpses beyond that. Then came his match-winning contributions against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Nottingham Forest, including three distinct goals which showcased his talent. Suddenly his price tag appears far less inflated.
Since breaking through at AIK in Stockholm, Isak has been dubbed the “new Zlatan Ibrahimovic”, but recently there have been comparisons to a young Thierry Henry among Newcastle’s coaching staff in private, so enthused are they by what they have seen on the training ground. The debate no longer focuses on whether the 23-year-old can be accommodated in the starting XI alongside Callum Wilson. Wilson is no longer first-choice striker; Isak has usurped the England international, at the very least in the short term.
“The manager can’t leave him out now,” says Alan Shearer. “Not with the form he’s in, the quality he’s shown, the goals he’s scored and how dangerous he looks. The Forest performance really demonstrated what he’s all about.”
Isak’s sample size may be modest, but only Erling Haaland is scoring at a faster rate in the Premier League among players who have more than 300 minutes this season. While the Manchester City striker’s 28 goals have come at an average of one every 75.6 minutes, Isak’s six have come every 103.7 minutes. When measured per 90 minutes, Haaland is on 1.19 and Isak is on 0.87. The same is true for expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes, a metric that measures the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal, with just Haaland (0.86) above Isak (0.81).
True, the Sweden striker drops down both lists when spot kicks are excluded: he’s joint-seventh for non-penalty goals per 90 (0.58) and fifth for non-penalty xG per 90 (also 0.58) — but half a dozen goals across just seven Premier League starts marks an impressive introduction, even spread over seven months.
Minutes-per-goal for strikers
PlayerGoalsMinutes per goalGoals per 90xG per 90
28
75.6
1.19
0.86
6
103.7
0.87
0.81
21
119.3
0.75
0.56
11
123.0
0.73
0.46
8
129.0
0.70
0.39
The pace, athleticism, footballing intelligence, technical ability and finishing prowess Isak has shown over the last two outings typify why Newcastle’s recruitment team unanimously approved August’s club-record move.
“He’s a prime example of what I would call a modern forward, more in the mould of a Mo Salah or Sadio Mane, rather than a Haaland, who is the definition of a No 9,” says Shearer, Newcastle’s record goalscorer. “Alexander is an athlete — a gymnast, really — as he’s nimble, quick and very good on the ball, able to bring others into the game. He’s very different to Callum, who’s more of a poacher, a goalscorer, a centre-forward.”
These traits were highlighted to Yasir Al-Rumayyan, the club chairman, who decided the club needed to “do something big” by bringing Isak to the north east. Chris Wood had been a stop-gap signing to secure survival last year; an out-and-out centre-forward who was ideal for the “simple” attacking approach Howe initially favoured. The verdict inside the club was that the next offensive addition had to be an exciting prospect who could potentially develop into a top forward.
Steve Nickson, Newcastle’s head of recruitment, had long admired Isak’s profile. Howe, meanwhile, first spotted Isak playing as a youth international and was immediately taken by his athleticism and speed. But, despite identifying Isak as their aspirational target last spring, Real Sociedad’s £76million release clause proved prohibitive, while the player’s camp suggested he required convincing about the move. Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Brentford’s Ivan Toney, Red Bull Salzburg’s Benjamin Sesko, Sturm Graz’s Rasmus Hojlund and Watford’s Joao Pedro were considered as attacking targets, with Isak remaining their preferred option, albeit one they feared was unattainable.
Then Al-Rumayyan witnessed Wilson’s hamstring injury against Manchester City and that shifted Newcastle’s priorities. A versatile forward who could complement and replace Wilson was sought. In Isak, Newcastle believed they had sourced just that type of attacker. Still, there was an acknowledgement of the risk in acquiring him.
Following a prolific 2020-21, when Isak scored 17 goals in 34 La Liga appearances, he netted just six times last season. That, allied with his disappointing spell at Borussia Dortmund, made Europe’s top clubs, including Arsenal, tentative about spending so much money on a promising player they had long tracked.
But Isak’s outstanding debut against Liverpool in August offered a taste of the ‘X-factor’ Howe was confident the striker would bring. Within 38 minutes, Isak (shown below) had scored. Isak turned on the edge of the area and sprinted in behind the defenders, then Sean Longstaff played a delicious outside-of-the-foot pass.
Renowned for his first-time finishes, the striker did not disappoint, calmly lashing the ball into the roof of the net.
A well-dispatched penalty followed against Bournemouth, giving Isak two goals from three top-flight starts, before a thigh injury disrupted his campaign. Whenever a player leaves to join their international set-up, club staff grow nervous because of the different training regimes employed. Unfortunately, Isak returned from Sweden duty with a thigh injury, initially ruling him out for four weeks. Much to Howe’s frustration, Isak then re-injured the same muscle, keeping him out the until after the World Cup. Extreme caution was applied, with Newcastle gradually building Isak’s workload to allow his body to build resilience.
A 45-minute outing against Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup on January 7 marked Isak’s first appearance since September 17. He made a dramatic Premier League return in January, scoring an 89th-minute winner as a substitute against Fulham. Then, just as Howe was ready to significantly increase Isak’s game time, following what those around the club described as “magnificent” performances in training, a concussion suffered in the League Cup semi-final against Southampton thwarted that plan.
There is therefore understandable relief that Isak has arrived back on Tyneside this week from Sweden duty unscathed, having played a combined 141 minutes against Belgium and Azerbaijan. He is, after all, the obvious antidote to the profligacy which has plagued Newcastle for much of 2023. As the graphic below shows, Isak has scored six goals from an xG of 5.6. All of his goals have come from efforts inside the area, and 13.1 yards is the average distance from which he has taken a shot.
Wilson’s shot map for last season shows his average shot distance is shorter (11.8 yards) and yet his xG per effort is lower (0.18 to Isak’s 0.23). That suggests Isak is getting himself into better scoring positions.
The graphic below shows where Isak likes to aim. He tends to look for the bottom corners.
Ahead of the Carabao Cup final last month, Shearer visited Newcastle’s training ground. Isak said it “helped me as a striker” to meet Shearer, with whom he has exchanged messages, learning about Newcastle’s centre-forwards.
There has been improvement in his game already, with the header against Wolves (shown below) an atypical goal for Isak. When Newcastle acquired him, they identified his aerial ability as needing development.
According to Understat, only three of his 33 La Liga goals (nine per cent) came via his head, while two of his six (33.3 per cent) for Newcastle have been headers. The Wolves goal was reminiscent of “the finish of a traditional Newcastle No 9”, Howe said.
“That might not have been natural for him, but the encouraging thing is it’s definitely in his locker,” Shearer says. “If you do it once, you can do it again. It’s something you can work on.”
The Forest performance was Isak’s real statement display, however, after which Howe felt the striker exhibited his “amazing” attributes. As well as providing a sublime ball for Elliot Anderson’s disallowed goal — controlling it while on the floor, swiftly rising, showing great close control before dinking a left-footed cross to the back post — he scored twice. While his winning penalty was “ice cool” in Howe’s words, it was the run and finish for his first that was particularly impressive. Joe Willock received an overlapping pass down the right and Isak, shown below, began to run towards the box.
Isak outfoxed his marker, but Willock’s cross was still a little behind him. Adjusting in mid-air, Isak wrapped his right foot back around the ball and shinned a volley in off the right-hand post.
This “unorthodox finish”, as Howe put it, showcased Isak’s technical quality, while his movement demonstrated his clever running patterns and desire to find space. Isak averages 7.2 touches in the opposition box per 90, the eighth-highest of all Premier League forwards to have played at least 300 minutes. He is able to be so active in the area because Newcastle are an attacking side who press high. Yet, of Isak’s 247 Premier League touches so far (shown below), only five have come inside the six-yard box, two of which led to goals.
One of those came against Fulham when Isak first had possession outside the D and passed to Jacob Murphy, before advancing into the right-hand side of the box.
Kieran Trippier’s initial cross went over Isak and towards Wilson at the back post.
But Isak showed a poacher’s instinct. Rather than stand still, he ran forwards, received a pass from Wilson and nodded into the net.
If Isak can “spend more time in the six-yard box”, Shearer expects to see the striker presented with even more opportunities. “Hopefully that will come,” Shearer says.
Although Isak is expected to start through the middle against Manchester United, Howe values his versatility. Isak can play anywhere across the front line and Newcastle’s recruitment team considered him as a wide-forward option in January 2022, before determining that his primary position must be central. There have been flashes of how effective he could be in a wider role, including his assist during the Carabao Cup semi-final first-leg victory against Southampton. Shown below, Isak ran into the outside channel to receive a pass from Fabian Schar.
Having dragged Duje Caleta-Car out of position, Isak then showed skill and agility to feign to cut back on his right, before beating the defender down the line.
Isak then demonstrated his composure to thread a pass into the six-yard box for Joelinton to finish.
That is Isak’s only Newcastle assist so far but, should Wilson rediscover his fitness and form, the prospect of pairing the forwards remains tantalising and it is feasible, given the former’s adaptability. Extracting greater creativity from the striker may take time but, for now, he is providing a cutting edge in front of goal that Newcastle have lacked in recent months. Isak ranks first among Newcastle forwards for goals, xG, touches in the opposition box, shots (3.5) and shots on target (2.0) per 90. He also has the highest shot conversion rate (25 per cent).
“Alexander’s all-round attributes are impressive and I can see him going on to have a very successful career at Newcastle,” Shearer says. “We have to remember it’s still early for him. He’s missed a lot of time through injury and has to become accustomed to the intense rhythm of the Premier League by playing a sustained run of games.
“Do that and without doubt, there is a top player in there. He’s only going to get better.”
If Newcastle are to secure a top-four finish this season, Isak’s form in front of goal will prove decisive.
Additional reporting by George Caulkin; graphics by Jeff Rueter.
(Top photo: Stu Forster via Getty Images)