How Accurate are Punxsutawney Phil’s Predictions? It Depends Where You Live

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Groundhog handler AJ Derume holds Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow, predicting a late spring during the 136th annual Groundhog Day festivities, Feb. 2, 2022, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.

Every year, thousands of winter-weary souls gather at Gobbler’s Knob on February 2nd in search of spring. As legend has it, if Punxsutawney Phil rises from his tree stump and sees his shadow, it’s six more weeks of winter. No shadow? Early spring.

Whether or not anyone actually believes that this groundhog – or any groundhog, including New York rival Staten Island Chuck – can predict the weather is up for debate, but skepticism aside, his devoted club emerge every February to help Phil perform his prophetic duties.

But just how accurate are his predictions anyways?

An NBC data analysis (yes, really) found that the answer depends on your area.

Looking at his last 50 predictions, Phil has predicted winter more often than not – 36 times, or approximately three out of four predictions. Nationwide, he has only been right 23 of those times, giving him a 46% accuracy rate.

Locally, Phil’s accuracy rate can swing from 44% to 54% – meaning you may have more luck predicting the next six weeks by flipping a coin.

Good news for anyone ready for spring, as Phil predicted six more weeks of winter for 2023.