Horse Racing Picks, Odds, and Best Bets for September 9: Smith Tries for Third Del Mar Debutante Triumph With Tamara

We’ve got more bi-coastal graded stakes action this Saturday with the Kentucky Turf Cup and the Del Mar Debutante sharing the spotlight. Our horse racing betting picks supply wagering advice for each event.

Another significant Saturday for horse racing and the Breeders Cup odds is set to get underway.

The Kentucky Turf Cup, which carries “Win and You’re In” status for the Breeders’ Cup Turf, is the feature at Kentucky Downs. Then out west, two-year-old fillies will be in the spotlight in the Del Mar Debutante, with eyes on an eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies try.

My analysis and picks for both races are below. 

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Kentucky Turf Cup odds, prediction and best bet

Post Horse Track odds 1 Foreign Relations 12-1 +1,200 +1,200 +2,000 2 Red Knight 4-1 +400 +400 +450 3 Verstappen 9-2 +450 +450 +700 4 Santin 5-1 +500 +500 +550 5 Get Smokin 15-1 +1,500 +1,500 +1,000 6 Me and Mr. C 10-1 +1,000 +1,000 +1,200 7 Kitodan 12-1 +1,200 +1,200 +2,500 8 Never Explain 8-1 +800 +800 +800 9 Nautilus 30-1 +3,000 +3,000 +5,000 10 Another Mystery 30-1 +3,000 +3,000 +2,000 11 Therapist 7-2 +350 +350 +250 12 Spooky Channel 20-1 +2,000 +2,000 +1,400 13* Sy Dog 20-1 +2,000 +2,000 +2,500 14* Cellist 10-1 +1,000 +1,000 +1,200 15* Highest Honors 8-1 +800 +800 +600 16* Red Run 20-1 +2,000 +2,000 +3,300

*horse is an also-eligible.

Odds as of September 7, 2023.

The Grade II, $1.7 million Kentucky Turf Cup clearly goes through Mike Maker, who has earned at least a share of the leading trainer title at the meet for three straight years. He’s entered four runners, three in the body of the field, including morning-line favorites No. 11 Therapist (7-2, morning-line favorite) and No. 2 Red Knight (4-1). However, it’s No. 6 Me and Mr. C (10-1) that intrigues me the most out of his quartet.

Me and Mr. C has won three straight races heading into this start, including the preview race for the Kentucky Turf Cup at Ellis Park on Aug. 6 going 1 1/4-miles. It’s been rare to see Me and Mr. C go beyond 1/16th-miles, but his closing kick at 10 panels last time out was an eye-opener.

The six-year-old son of Khozan has Dynaformer on the dam’s side, so perhaps marathon distances have been his calling all along. At 10-1, he’s well worth a winning wager in addition to inclusion in all vertical and horizontal wagers. Gerardo Corrales, who piloted Me and Mr. C to each of his last two victories, keeps the assignment.

Therapist is hard to ignore coming off his emphatic victory in the Grade I United Nations Stakes at Monmouth on July 22. However, he was off the board in his lone prior race at the quirky Kentucky Downs oval and didn’t maintain the level of performance he displayed in his other grade stakes victory earlier in the year, which was the Grade II Pan American. Instead, he finished in eighth place in the Grade III Louisville when competing at the challenging 1 1/2-mile distance.

The son of Freud is hard to leave out but is far from impossible to beat as the tepid betting choice under Javier Castellano.

Red Knight has two graded stakes wins going long on grass this year and boasts a 14: 5-4-0 career record at the taxing 1 1/2-mile trip, which includes his victory in last year’s Kentucky Turf Cup. However, he’ll have to turn the tables on Therapist after running third in the United Nations last time out. Tyler Gaffalione has the call once more.

Best bet: $8 win 6, $2 exacta box 2/6/11 ($20)

Del Mar Debutante odds, prediction and best bet

Post Horse Track odds 1 Julias Dream 5-1 +500 +500 +400 2 Next Right Thing 30-1 +3,000 +3,000 +3,300 3 Pretty Layla 30-1 +3,000 +3,000 +6,600 4 Benedetta 10-1 +1,000 +1,000 +900 5 Hope Road 12-1 +1,200 +1,200 +1,400 6 Chatalas 5-1 +500 +500 +750 7 Dreamfyre 4-1 +400 +400 +275 8 Pushiness 8-1 +800 +800 +700 9 Tamara 7-2 +350 +350 +350 10 Where’s My Ring 15-1 +1,500 +1,500 +2,000 11 Motet 50-1 +5,000 +5,000 +6,600 12 Gate to Paradise 20-1 +2,000 +2,000 +3,300 13 Laurent 6-1 +600 +600 +900 14 Cheeky Gal 30-1 +3,000 +3,000 +2,500

Odds as of September 7, 2023.

No. 9 Tamara (7-2, morning-line favorite) impressed on debut for more than one reason. Not only did the daughter of the legendary Beholder respond to jockey Mike Smith (who keeps the assignment) professionally after being given a great set-up, but she drew away from Hope Road to earn a solid speed figure.

It’s also worth noting that her trainer is Richard Mandella, who isn’t noted for having his charges fully cranked for their unveiling. That means bettors should expect improvement in the Del Mar Debutante as she adds distance, which shouldn’t hurt this Bolt d’Oro filly.

No. 7 Dreamfyre (4-1) was last seen taking the Grade III Sorrento Stakes over this course to run her career record to 2-for-2. She looks like the quickest of the bunch, but she’ll have to be careful not to tire herself out in this field of 14. Hector Berrios will be tasked with rationing her speed once more.

No. 6 Chatalas (5-1) posted a grinding sort of win at first asking, indicating that the expansion to seven furlongs will suit her. It’s encouraging to see leading rider Juan Hernandez take the call when he had other options. 

No. 5 Hope Road (12-1) is still a maiden but has run second in each of her first two tries, and the speed figures are competitive. She’s run both on and off the pace in her brief career, so new pilot Tiago Pereira appears to have tactical options on this live longshot.

Best bet: $5 exacta box 7/9, $4 exacta 9/5,6, $2 exacta 9/7 ($20)

Road to the Breeders’ Cup Classic Schedule Race Date Track Result February Stakes* February 19 Tokyo Racecourse (Japan) Lemon Pop Kentucky Derby May 6 Churchill Downs Mage Preakness Stakes May 20 Pimlico National Treasure Belmont Stakes June 10 Belmont Park Arcangelo Metropolitan Handicap June 10 Belmont Park Cody’s Wish Stephen Foster Stakes* July 1 Ellis Park West Will Power Haskell Stakes* July 22 Monmouth Park Geaux Rocket Ride Whitney Stakes* August 5 Saratoga White Abarrio Juddmonte International Stakes (turf)* August 23 York (UK) Mostahdaf Travers Stakes August 26 Saratoga Arcangelo Pacific Classic* September 2 Del Mar Arabian Knight Jockey Club Gold Cup* September 2 Saratoga Bright Future Pennsylvania Derby September 23 Parx TBD Awesome Again Stakes* September 30 Santa Anita Park TBD Lukas Classic September 30 Churchill Downs TBD

*denotes “Win & You’re In” race for Breeders’ Cup Classic

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