Here’s why Braves’ historic offense will bounce back

ATLANTA — After the Braves lost National League Division Series Game 1 to the Brewers in 2021, they tallied consecutive shutout wins and celebrated a World Series title a few weeks later.

This reminder might not reduce the sting of the 3-0 shutout loss suffered against the Phillies in NLDS Game 1 on Saturday. Nobody expected this from what is one of the most explosive and productive offenses ever seen.

But nobody will also be dwelling on it if this electric Atlanta offense lives up to expectations over the remainder of this best-of-five series.

The challenge is greater as this great lineup will face Zack Wheeler in Game 2 on Monday and Aaron Nola in Game 3 on Wednesday. But Wheeler and Nola also face a significant challenge — trying to subdue an offense that produced an AL/NL record .501 slugging percentage and tied the MLB record with 307 homers.

“It’s always important to win Game 1, but I think Game 2 is pretty important, too,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “It’s kind of a swing game. And you can’t let up at all against this ballclub because they’re good, and they can attack, and they can do a lot of good things. So we gotta stay nose to the grindstone.” 

Here are five reasons the Braves’ offense is poised to rebound:

Ronald will be RonaldRonald Acuña Jr. was among the Braves who seemed a little too anxious on Saturday. The top NL MVP candidate hit weak grounders against the first pitch he saw — an off-the-plate inside cutter — and the third pitch he saw (second plate appearance in the fourth). He struck out in the fifth against Seranthony Domínguez, who painted three consecutive 98-99 mph pitches after the Braves outfielder fell behind by swinging at a heater in and off the plate.

Even the greatest players go hitless and maybe feel a little extra excitement. Acuña has gone 11-for-44 with four homers against Wheeler.

While discussing homers he allowed to Acuña, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna on Sept. 13, Wheeler said, “And then, I just hung the curveball to … what’s his name? Acuña?”

Acuña likely hasn’t forgotten what was said. And when Mr. 40-70 goes, the Braves go.

Regular lineup?Hours before the Braves were shut out for just the third time this calendar year, folks were second-guessing the decision to alter the lineup for Saturday’s game. This well-oiled machine assumed different looks while compiling historic numbers during the season. But it felt like overmanaging when Brian Snitker opted to move Austin Riley to the second spot and Ozzie Albies to the cleanup spot for Game 1.

By moving Albies down two spots and Matt Olson up one, the Braves were creating a defense for when the Phillies brought in José Alvarado to face Olson. Could they have done the same by simply flipping Riley and Olson? This would have kept the dynamic Acuña and Albies at the top of the lineup. It may have also denied Riley a plate appearance.

The Braves thought the payoff may be coming when Alvarado entered to face Olson to begin the sixth. But the potential reward vanished when Ozuna’s liner was hit right at shortstop Trea Turner.

For that one moment, it might have been the right play. But why mess with a great thing?

October vetsWith the Braves having won six straight NL East titles, their lineup is littered with playoff experience. But Riley indicated that he and his teammates might have been a little anxious on Saturday. That shouldn’t be the case in Game 2. 

“We need to slow the game down,” Riley said. “I think that’s a big thing we can do, just slow the game, be in the moment and trust our ability.”

Familiar foeWheeler might also be feeling some extra emotions as he opposes his hometown team at a stadium located about 30 minutes from where he was raised. The Phillies right-hander allowed three runs over six innings in Game 2 of last year’s NLDS at Truist Park. The game was scoreless until Wheeler allowed five straight batters to reach with two outs in Atlanta’s three-run sixth.

Wheeler allowed one run over the 14 innings (two starts) he completed against the Braves in Atlanta this year. He allowed six runs over just five innings in his only home start against them this year.

With the expectation Travis d’Arnaud will be behind the plate for Max Fried on Monday night, the Braves may gain another benefit. d’Arnaud has gone 7-for-18 with a double and a homer in his career against Wheeler. His success may be a product of them spending time together in the Mets’ organization.

Predictable scoreYou can look at all the matchups, or you can just look at one historical trend. The Braves have won NLDS Game 2 in shutout fashion in each of the four prior seasons. They have tallied three 3-0 wins (2019 vs. Cardinals, 2021 vs. Brewers, 2022 vs. Phillies) and one 2-0 victory (2020 vs. Marlins).

Sometimes you just need to trust the simple analytics.