Guregian: Kurt Warner, Dante Scarnecchia pinpoint why Patriots can’t score in the red zone
Warner #Warner
The red zone has been a dead zone for the Patriots.
They don’t get there much, and when they do, it usually turns into a disaster. They haven’t scored a touchdown inside the 20 in nearly a month. They’ve whiffed on their last seven tries.
And if that’s not bad enough, they’re neck-and-neck with offense-challenged Denver for having the worst red zone offense in the league.
Overall, the Patriots have made 32 trips and converted just 12 into touchdowns. Players and coaches are well aware their red-zone offense is a problem. The question is whether or not they can repair it over their last five games.
If they can’t get a little more productive in the red area, especially against some of the offensive juggernauts (Bengals, Dolphins, Bills) left on the schedule, they aren’t likely to remain in the playoff hunt.
“The red zone is both a curse and a blessing,” former Patriots offensive line guru Dante Scarnecchia said when reached recently. “It’s a blessing to be there, ’cause you think you’re going to come out of it with points of some sort.
“We all want touchdowns … and you’re in an area you should score in. But it’s a tough area for obvious reasons. There’s no vertical space. There’s none. Everything gets packed down there real tight so it’s not an easy proposition.”
Those are all valid points. The problem is, the Patriots didn’t seem to have any issues last year with largely the same cast.
The Pats scored touchdowns on 63.08% of their red zone visits last year, which was closer to the top than bottom of the league. Their 37.5% conversion rate this year is a significant drop.
Having a new play-caller, a rewritten playbook and players not doing as well in the system this year have contributed to the dip. At least, that’s the way many analysts see it.
Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who dissected Mac Jones and the offense with the Herald earlier in the week, also provided his take on why the Patriots were having so much trouble in the red zone.
In short, combining a simplistic offense and the red zone are like oil and water. They don’t mix.
“These basic, simple concepts that I’ve talked about with them can be really good out on the field when you have space. But the red zone is a completely different beast,” said Warner. “You have to create new opportunities down there, new plays.
“When you’re using the most basic plays, they’re not as successful down there. So if you’re trying to run those same sorts of plays, instead of being creative and doing things differently in the red zone, you’re going to struggle as well.”
Matt Patricia, who is calling offensive plays for the first time, is not only utilizing basic concepts, he’s also incredibly conservative at the wheel. That often translates into field goals instead of touchdowns.
“The best teams now are the creative teams,” said Warner. “It’s the creative teams that do a lot of different things, and give a defense a lot of different things to think about. So it’s tough to be really simple down there, and really good unless you have a couple guys that can make those special plays.
“Like, boom, I’ve got a matchup over here that I can always exploit. That helps in the red zone. But they don’t have those guys. They don’t have the Gronks, the Randy Mosses, the Larry Fitzgeralds, so now you’ve got to get creative with ways to create opportunities in the red zone.”
No, they don’t have that elite playmaker. They don’t have a Justin Jefferson or a Davante Adams. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have players who can score down there.
It doesn’t help when your best red zone threat, tight end Hunter Henry, is often kept in to block for an offensive line that’s been plagued by injuries, and just hasn’t performed very well.
It also doesn’t help that red zone trips have been killed by penalties, quarterback sacks or both. At times, it’s been more a case of shooting themselves in the foot, as opposed to simple X’s and O’s.
Case in point: in their one red zone opportunity in last week’s loss to Buffalo, the Pats got down deep in Bills territory. It was first and goal from the 8-yard line late in the fourth quarter.
What happened after that?
An incomplete pass to Henry, a 13-yard sack driving the Pats back to the 21, then an incomplete pass to Nelson Agholor. That left Nick Folk to kick a field goal.
“If I was a first-time coordinator, what am I going to do? I’m going to talk to people and go, ‘What are your favorite concepts? What concepts are universal and are easy to run in every situation?’ And those are the plays I’m going to major in,” said Warner. “But, at this level, you gotta do some different things.
“You have to find ways to doctor things up, and do things differently, help your playmakers get open some times.”
Scarnecchia agreed, but also stressed the importance of being able to run the ball in the red zone, to help open up the smaller passing windows.
“If you run the ball effectively, you can keep (the defense) honest. If you’re struggling to do that, they have less space to defend and it makes it a lot harder,” said Scarnecchia. “Look, this is the situation you’re really judged by. This is where you win or lose games, and it hasn’t been kind to them so far.
“I’m sure they’re racking their brains to figure out the best way to do it.”
Basically, Patricia has to figure out something new. The offense is basic, broken and, by extension, so is the red-zone attack.
So along with the players cutting down on penalties, and the offensive line protecting better, it’s up to Patricia and Bill Belichick to make Mac & Co. more competitive in that area.
The clock is ticking.