Guerrero, Kirk, Varsho are keys for Blue Jays

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Three teams, three weeks, two spots.

There’s barely room to breathe in this AL Wild Card race, and the Blue Jays aren’t making it any easier on themselves.

Both the Rangers and Mariners hold tiebreakers over the Blue Jays, so unless the Astros fall back into the Wild Card race, that hill is a few degrees steeper than the standings suggest at the end of each night. The major remaining advantage here is that the Rangers and Mariners still play seven more games against one another, including the final four of the season, which should give the Blue Jays a shot to catch the weakest link.

It won’t come easy, though.

“It’s going to be a battle. It’s going to be a grind,” manager John Schneider said after Tuesday’s loss. “We have to control what we can and try to pile up the wins. It’s going to go right down to the end.”

These three players can make the difference:

It’s been true for 146 games and holds for the final 16: The Blue Jays need more from Vladimir Guerrero Jr..

In the early games of this series against the Rangers, Guerrero was lunging at pitches and looked like a lesser version of himself at the plate. When these struggles have come over the course of 2023, Schneider has often referenced the importance of Guerrero being himself, not expanding and trying to be the hero.

For now, Guerrero and Kevin Kiermaier share a nearly identical OPS. That’s not a recipe for success.

Look at Julio Rodriguez, the young Mariners star who is trying to keep the Blue Jays out of the postseason. Up until the end of July, Rodriguez posted a .738 OPS and looked like a 22-year-old still learning how to make adjustments in the big leagues. Since Aug. 1, though, Rodriguez has played out of his mind, hitting .389 with a 1.147 OPS and carrying the Mariners back into this race.

That outcome is possible. Where is that turnaround for Guerrero?

Danny Jansen’s fractured finger was a crushing blow to this team. Beyond Jansen’s value in the clubhouse and to the pitching staff, he’s developed into one of the club’s best power hitters and clutch performers. Those are two areas where the Blue Jays need all the help they can get.

Enter Alejandro Kirk, who has an opportunity to rewrite the narrative of his season. Let’s keep in mind that Kirk’s start to camp was delayed by the birth of his child, but even by mid-season, you still weren’t seeing the full scope of his offensive impact. Kirk should be one of this lineup’s most unique and valuable bats, but that hasn’t been the case.

The short version? Kirk isn’t hitting the ball as hard and he’s not hitting the ball in the air as often. That’s a dangerous recipe because Kirk is one of the league’s slowest baserunners, so a ground ball means an out.

That said, Kirk is one of the best in baseball at putting the ball in play and avoiding strikeouts. This team looks like it’s built to move runners and string hits together, which Kirk’s profile should only help with, and he’s started to look more comfortable at the plate in recent weeks. He doesn’t need to shock the world with a 1.200 OPS and 10 home runs down the stretch, but a few line drives could go a long way towards the Blue Jays’ success.

The top of Varsho’s Baseball Savant page tells you the story. He is one of the best fielders and baserunners in the sport, but his offensive value ranks near the bottom.

There was a stretch in August when it looked like some of Varsho’s adjustments were starting to pay off, but he’s spent most of the season between a .640 and .680 OPS. If Varsho were reaching base more, that would open up even more value with his legs, but that’s not coming easily.

Every play is an opportunity for Varsho to change the game. He can steal a run on defense or flip the game on the bases, but can he do enough to lock himself into the lineup every day? Especially when Matt Chapman returns, the Blue Jays will need to find at-bats for Davis Schneider and Whit Merrifield, and they can’t both play second base.

Varsho is such a unique player and a fresh start should do him wonders in 2024, but much like Kirk, he still has time to rewrite how we remember this season.