Grizzlies vs. Spurs play-in game: Ja Morant vs. DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas X-factor in high-stakes bout

Wednesday’s 9 vs. 10 play-in game between the Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs may not have the same cachet as the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors matchup, but that doesn’t mean it will be void of intrigue. We’re getting Ja Morant and a young up-and-coming Grizzlies team going up against Gregg Popovich’s Spurs, who have managed to mix young and veteran players to remain competitive this season. 

Memphis is trying to wash away the memory of losing in last season’s play-in game to the Portland Trail Blazers, where Damian Lillard was the difference-maker in the hard-fought contest. This season, however, the Grizzlies are healthier with the recent return of Jaren Jackson Jr., and have several new young players who have made a sizable impact all season long to make this team entertaining to watch. Morant followed up his Rookie of the Year season by improving his raw numbers and being the undisputed leader of this team.

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For San Antonio, a mid-season buyout of LaMarcus Aldridge’s contract changed the makeup of this team, but it allowed for younger players to flourish with the bigger opportunity. DeMar DeRozan had an All-Star-caliber season despite not being named one, and young guys like Dejounte Murray and Keldon Johnson are showing that this Spurs team has a bright future. The loss of Derrick White for the season due to an ankle sprain he suffered in late April is a gut punch, but San Antonio weathered the storm and finds itself in a position to still make the playoffs. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the Grizzlies-Spurs play-in game.

(9) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (10) San Antonio Spurs

Featured Game | Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs

1. The stars of the show

The depth in this matchup is important, but we can’t forget about the two stars in this game: Morant and DeRozan. We’ll get to see DeRozan in a playoff-like game for the first time since 2019, where he put up 22 points a night in a seven-game first-round series against the Denver Nuggets. He’s been a forgotten player this season, but that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the most lethal mid-range scorers in the league still. DeRozan’s shooting a career-high 48 percent on all mid-range shots, putting him in the 87th percentile among other forwards in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. His efficiency is the highest its been since being traded to San Antonio, and he’s also putting up a career-best seven assists a game. The Grizzlies rank seventh in the league in defense, so DeRozan will certainly have to work for his points a bit, but it won’t be surprising at all if he breaks loose for a big scoring night.

On the other end of this game is Morant, whose star is still on the rise in this league as a crafty, ridiculously athletic point guard with unreal finishing ability around the rim. While their games are different, both DeRozan and Morant share something in common in that the two struggle greatly shooting from deep. San Antonio is going to exploit that and give Morant a ton of space out on the wing, but the issue with that is his quick first step to the rim, and explosiveness when he gets there will burn you. The Spurs are going to dare Morant to take open jump shots, and he’ll need to knock down a couple to keep San Antonio honest on defense.

2. Which team’s depth will step up?

What will be most interesting about this matchup is how each team’s depth steps up to the task of delivering in this high-pressure situation. Morant and DeRozan are going to get theirs, so this game could very well come down to which squad’s role players respond better. On one end, you have the sharpshooting trio on Memphis bench of rookie Desmond Bane (43.2 percent), De’Anthony Melton (41.2 percent) and Grayson Allen (39.1 percent), who have been crucial all season to this team’s success. And on the other side there’s battle-tested veterans Patty Mills and Rudy Gay along with third-year guard Lonnie Walker, who is having the best season of his young career. 

Both the Spurs and Grizzlies rank in the top 10 in bench points per game this season, with the two teams being tied for sixth place at just over 39 points a contest. The veteran experience the Spurs have coming off their bench is a huge advantage as Mills is one of the craftiest reserve guards in the league, but the Grizzlies’ role players have been rather consistent all season long. The team with the bench that can take control of the game may be the winner of this contest.

Another X-factor who could be mentioned on the Grizzlies is Jaren Jackson Jr., just for the simple fact that he just returned to the lineup after a lengthy absence. However, what Jonas Valanciunas has done this season for Memphis needs mentioning. The Grizzlies lead the league in points in the paint this season (55.8), the reason being Valanciunas’ career year. He’s putting up 17.1 points and 12.5 rebounds, while ranking second in the league in offensive rebounds (4.1). Valanciunas has been a monster in the paint, and his 48 double-doubles this season are third-most in the league, putting him behind only Russell Westbrook and Nikola Jokic in that category. 

Memphis tops the league in second-chance points per game (15.0), because of Valanciunas’ ability to outwork opposing big men to fight for offensive boards and throw it back out on the wing for another possession, or go right back up with it for an easy putback. The Spurs’ bigs — Gorgui Dieng and Jakob Poeltl — are going to have their hands full with him down in the post, and he could be the difference-maker in this even matchup.

Prediction

Popovich, DeRozan and the Spurs shouldn’t be counted out in this game, but Memphis just has too many pieces who can score and make a difference in this game. Morant should be able to take advantage of the space San Antonio gives him, and Valanciunas will cause headaches in the paint for the Spurs. Pick: Grizzlies -4