GOP dark horses see 2024 path in surviving Trump-DeSantis mutually assured destruction
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The Republican presidential field may end up being split between former President Donald Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), and other candidates who hope to benefit if the top two Florida men tear each other apart during a bruising primary battle.
DeSantis, a prominent swing state governor that many Republicans hope will run for president in 2024, isn’t expected to make a formal move until the end of Florida’s legislative session, with one source suggesting it may not occur until July or later. Announcing during the second fundraising quarter would forfeit runway if the governor hopes to come out guns blazing, showcasing his ability to box out rivals for donor cash.
“This is all being discussed; of course it is,” a Republican strategist and former Trump aide said of the prospect that Trump and his closest competitor could tear one another down. “There’s multiple scenarios.”
THE DIVIDING LINE IN THE GOP OVER TRUMP AND DESANTIS: POLL
DeSantis emerged as Trump’s strongest potential rival after Florida Republicans swept to victory in the midterm elections, notching support from independents and centrists and defying Republicans’ lackluster results, including some of the former president’s high-profile endorsements.
After launching his campaign in November, Trump has been slow to build momentum. The former president is expected to face a field of challengers for the 2024 nomination, a point of emphasis for aides eager to draw parallels with his 2016 insurgent campaign. Only two prominent candidates have entered the race, Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Trump has swiped repeatedly at DeSantis, drawing battle lines for his supporters by labeling the governor his “enemy” this week.
“I always say hit your enemy a little early,” Trump said in remarks from West Palm Beach, according to Reuters. “Some people say don’t. But I say do.”
DeSantis has mostly responded indirectly, saying he was focused on fighting President Joe Biden and the Democrats. But it is unclear how long that approach will work.
Trump’s aides are also watching the field closely, “monitoring to see how many people are peeling off from the donor base,” tracking internal polls, to the base itself “to who would actually want to work for his campaign,” a former aide said.
Underpinning the dynamic is a tension that suggests Trump has lost some of his grip on the party.
A recent Marquette University poll showed 70% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents still hold a favorable view of Trump. Yet the same survey showed Trump nearly 30 percentage points underwater in a head-to-head matchup against DeSantis, with 36% of the vote compared to the governor’s 64%.
Some seasoned political operatives are holding back as they wait for the field to come into focus.
“You’ll notice that no one has been hired,” this person said. “A lot of people are just hanging back.”
Months after announcing his campaign, Trump has brought some key operatives on board, but the rollout has been slow.
On Wednesday, a visit to the site of a toxic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, accompanied by his son Donald Trump Jr. suggested that Trump can still connect with the voters who helped elect him in 2016.
“If Nikki Haley decides to go to Ohio, it’s looked at as a political stunt. For Trump, it would be ‘These are my people,’” a former top aide said. “It’s going to be seen as ‘He hasn’t forgotten about his people,’ which is probably one of the smarter moves he’s made thus far.”
Fear that Trump and DeSantis could end up practicing a form of mutually assured destruction, leaving the party ill-prepared for the general election, is unlikely to prompt Republicans to coalesce around a backup plan preemptively. One source called the idea “possible but unlikely.”
“All the other guys running think they are plan B,” this person said.
Other prospective candidates include Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), former Vice President Mike Pence, and others.
But “you have to raise the money,” another source added.
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The Republican Party will hold its first presidential primary debate in Milwaukee in August, with Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, a Trump ally, telling members in a memo on Thursday that the final criteria for the first debate had not yet been decided.
Talk of criteria comes amid reports that the party will press candidates to abide by a loyalty pledge, committing to support the eventual nominee. Candidates may also be required to clear a polling threshold or demonstrate a number of grassroots donors, according to the Associated Press.
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Tags: 2024 Elections, News, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, White House
Original Author: Katherine Doyle
Original Location: GOP dark horses see 2024 path in surviving Trump-DeSantis mutually assured destruction