GOAL! Man City 0-2 Aston Villa (Coutinho 69)

73 min “If Mahrez had scored that penalty City wouldn’t really have needed a draw,” says David Brook, “just to avoid a six-goal swing in goal difference.”

You’re right – I was so frazzled that I got it all mixed up.

Updated at 12.33 EDT

72 min Villa bring on Marvelous Nakamba for Coutinho.

This is utterly surreal. Olsen’s goalkick was nodded on by Watkins to Coutinho, who took it inside Laporte with a glorious first touch and then dragged a shot past Ederson at the near post. That’s a brilliant goal from Coutinho, a majestic two-touch finish, and it could be the most famous goal of his Liverpool career!

GOAL! Man City 0-2 Aston Villa (Coutinho 69)

Philippe Coutinho may have won the title for Liverpool!

Wow! Photograph: Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

Updated at 12.36 EDT

69 min City substitution: Gundogan for Bernardo. City have used all their substitutes.

68 min … And De Bruyne curls the free-kick a few yards wide. Olsen had it covered.

67 min Rodri is fouled just outside the area by Coutinho…

67 min Foden’s cross is controlled beautifully on the turn by Jesus, whose shot is excellently blocked by Chambers.

66 min Ilkay Gundogan is about to come on for Bernardo Silva, which a) suggests an injury and b) means we won’t see Jack Grealish. This was made for him.

65 min City still aren’t creating chances. And for the first time in the match, their heads are starting to go down. An equaliser would change everything, as it did against QPR a decade ago. But right here, right now, they look in serious trouble.

63 min Had Mahrez scored that penalty at West Ham, City would only need a draw today. Instead they need all three points, assuming Liverpool get a winner against Wolves.

62 min A loose ball almost falls for Coutinho in the area. City have been very nervous defensively.

61 min There’s a break in play while Watkins receives treatment for something or other.

60 min Robin Olsen still hasn’t had a difficult save to make. City have only one change left – you’d think it will Jack Grealish, though I doubt Guardiola will want to risk it this early in the second half. This is the kind of game where you want Grealish to find an eye in the needle.

58 min Sterling’s cutback is blocked by the sliding Mings. It’s all City now, though Villa remain a serious threat on their occasional counter-attacks.

57 min Here’s the top of the table as things stand.

56 min: City substitution Raheem Sterling replaces Riyad Mahrez, who has had a subdued game on the back of his missed penalty at West Ham.

55 min: What a chance for Villa! Watkins gives everyone a coronary by charging through on goal and shooting just wide. The flag went up subsequently – but replays showed he was in his own half and therefore onside! Had he scored, and he should have done, it would have counted! The chance came straight from an Olsen goalkick.

Updated at 12.17 EDT

54 min City have been much better since half-time, both their shape and their intensity. But they are now 36 rather than 45 minutes away from ignominy.

51 min Rodri smashes a few yards wide from distance. Meanwhile, at Anfield, Sadio Mane has had a goal disallowed for offside. It’s still Liverpool 1-1 Wolves.

Updated at 12.13 EDT

50 min: Chances plural for City! Zinchenko swerves past three Villa players, gets to the byline and then tries to guide the ball back to Mahrez in front of goal. He is caught slightly on his heels, which allows Digne to clear.

Then, moments later, Jesus misses from four yards! Cancelo put in a devastating cross from the right, and Jesus lobbed it over on the stretch. He went with his wrong foot, the right.

What a miss for Man City! Photograph: Martin Rickett/PA

Updated at 12.17 EDT

49 min Mings is booked for fouling someone in a blue shirt.

48 min Foden’s cross is only partially cleared by Digne. It bounces up towards De Bruyne, 12 yards out but he hooks it over the bar. He couldn’t quite over the ball, even with his technique.

46 min Foden flashes a ball across the face of goal, though no City players were anywhere near it.

46 min Peep peep! City are 45 minutes away from either glory or despair.

Half-time substitution for City Oleksandr Zinchenko is coming on for Fernandinho, with Joao Cancelo moving to right-back and John Stones to centre-back. It’s almost as if that’s the team Pep Guardiola should have started with.

“Argh!!!” says Matt Dony, and he doesn’t even support City. “I didn’t see this coming either. And I’m not sure how I feel about it. It can’t happen, can it? Can it? In many ways, I’d rather have seen City storm into an early lead, and allow me to just enjoy the last day with no expectations. This is hideous.”

Half time: Manchester City 0-1 Aston Villa

Matty Cash’s header has given Aston Villa a shock lead against a surprisingly flat Manchester City. As things stand, with Liverpool drawing, City are still top of the league – but realistically they need to score at least twice in the second half or the title will be off to Anfield. And Cityitis will be back with a vengeance.

Squeaky bum time for Pep. Photograph: Andrew Yates/EPA

Updated at 11.58 EDT

45+3 min A right-wing corner is headed straight at Olsen by Laporte. A half chance at best, and City’s first shot on target.