Glenn Youngkin’s Presidential Ambitions Face Test in Virginia State Elections

(Bloomberg) — As Donald Trump’s Republican primary challengers struggle to dent his enormous polling lead, some GOP donors are increasingly tantalized by the presidential prospects of someone on the sidelines: Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin.

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The former private equity executive, who scored an upset victory two years ago in a state that had recently trended toward Democrats, will see a major test of his political muscle on Tuesday when Virginia holds elections for its state legislature.

Youngkin and his super PAC have been campaigning hard to hold a Republican majority in the House of Delegates and flip control of the state Senate to the GOP.

A big night for Republicans in Virginia would have dual importance to Youngkin’s presidential ambitions: It would make it easier for him to pass conservative policies into law that he could tout on a future campaign trail, and donors would see it as reinforcement that he knows how to win in competitive states.

Some of the donors who seek an alternative to Trump would like Youngkin to make a last-minute entry in the 2024 primary contest, but many are now resigned to the idea that it’s likely too late for such a gambit to pay off, and are instead looking to 2028.

“He is going to try to get Republicans elected because his own future depends on it,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Privately, his aides have told people he is running in 2028, even if they have not said it publicly.”

On a Saturday in late October, Youngkin made four campaign stops in a single day to help boost fellow Republicans. He attended two rallies for state Senate candidates, greeted voters at the Heritage India Festival and ate brisket at a barbecue restaurant that donates some of its proceeds to veterans’ groups.

Youngkin captured the governorship in 2021 by capitalizing on parents’ anger over Covid-19 lockdowns and school closures. Donors see him as a formidable national candidate because of his potential crossover appeal: He pushes for the conservative policies that are catnip for Trump enthusiasts, but with a genteel demeanor that might entice moderates and independents — voting blocs that turned away from Republicans in recent elections.

Donor enthusiasm has shown up in the receipts of Youngkin’s super PAC, Spirit of Virginia. Since March 1, he has raised roughly $22.5 million, according to a Youngkin official.

Mild-Mannered Style

While Youngkin has enchanted donors, it’s not clear early-state GOP primary voters would embrace his brand of Republicanism. The party recently has been drawn to combative culture warriors who stoke voters’ grievances – a sharp contrast to Youngkin’s mild-mannered style.

Past elections, including Mitt Romney’s 2012 bid for president, also have shown the perils of running as a former private equity executive. Democrats successfully painted Romney as a job-killing corporate mogul, and they’d likely run the same playbook against Youngkin.

Youngkin himself dodges questions about his next act. At a recent event at The Economic Club of Washington, he was asked if he was happy as the governor of Virginia – a roundabout way to prod him about whether he’d eventually run for higher office.

“I know it’s gonna break your heart, but the short answer is yes. It’s amazing,” he told the moderator, David Rubenstein, his former boss at the Carlyle Group Inc.

Political operatives view his evasion of such questions as a way to keep interest alive in his potential presidential candidacy.

Youngkin’s term as governor ends in 2026, and state law prevents him from serving two consecutive terms – timing that lines up well for ramping up a 2028 presidential run. By then, the anti-Trump crowd hopes the GOP will have moved on from the former president, and theoretically Youngkin would face a far more open field.

“The governor remains solely focused on the Virginia elections in November,” says David Rexrode, chairman of the Spirit of Virginia PAC. “It is humbling that there is a lot of interest in Virginia for what he has been able to accomplish these last two years. That’s what suburban voters and other swing voters are looking for in elected officials.”

Surprising Evolution

Those who know Youngkin from the decades he spent at Carlyle have been surprised by his evolution into a far-right politician — Trump-like, but wearing a fleece vest. At the private equity firm, he was known as a country club Republican who prayed before dinner and shared his life with his deeply religious wife, but no one saw him as a firebrand or hard-liner on cultural issues.

That’s in part because when he was in the top ranks of Carlyle leadership in 2017, the firm changed its standard health benefits to cover sex reassignment surgeries, according to two people familiar with company policies. An aide to Youngkin did not comment. In 2018, when he became the co-chief executive officer, he served on the company’s diversity council to ensure workers had progressive benefits and policies.

These moves are out of step with the policies he has pursued as governor of Virginia, where public schools have rescinded diversity and equity programs in response to his executive orders and rolled back protections for transgender students.

For now, advisers say Youngkin has been focused on trying to ensure Republicans win as many local races as possible. Winning, after all, offers the best opportunity to pass legislation that would burnish his conservative credentials with voters who might look unfavorably on those aspects of his past.

–With assistance from Jennah Haque and Heather Perlberg.

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