Gareth Southgate again opts for tried and trusted as World Cup squad takes shape

Southgate will soon name his squad for Qatar (AFP via Getty Images)

If Gareth Southgate is planning any wild card for his World Cup squad, he is now going to leave it as late as possible to play that hand. The last England squad before Qatar, for next weekend’s Nations League games, was predictable and only really notable for Eric Dier’s return and names in for injury. Ivan Toney benefitted from Marcus Rashford’s fitness, Dean Henderson from Jordan Pickford’s.

That illustrates that the main tension between now and the naming of the final squad is whether any fringe players can force themselves in, and any established players out. While the inclusion of Dier and Toney should give players such as Harvey Elliott, Conor Gallagher and Ben White hope in that regard, the general feel of this squad indicates it is going to be a tough challenge for anyone on the outside.

Southgate has overwhelmingly gone for the tried and trusted, just before a World Cup that is supposed to represent the peak of a cycle as well as a 10-year plan. There is a natural logic there alone – if one that also poses questions.

Southgate is admittedly in an almost invidious position here, with perception of every call dictated by twin pressures from either side of the tournament. One is of course the World Cup itself, which frames everything, and discussion around all of that fired by England’s dismal June performances. On the other side, there are the actual tournament performances themselves, which will really dictate the merits of his decision-making.

If it goes well, all of this will be a masterstroke, and Southgate will have been vindicated for carefully building up a core he can trust. If he doesn’t, it will be another sign of the staleness that has started to be talked about.

Right now, at a remove of two months from the tournament, that is the unavoidable feel of this group. There’s nothing all that exciting about it.

The flip side to that is that there aren’t many names on the outside that feel like a necessity. It’s not like Southgate has been reluctant to give players a chance, or that someone as talented as Jude Bellingham is insisting on his opportunity.

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That is why, although many can point to Southgate’s conservatism here, the real onus is on those not picked to considerably up their game. Toney should be their inspiration. On that, it shouldn’t be overlooked that this is a real opportunity for the Brentford striker too. What a time to get your first call-up. There’s a golden chance to make the World Cup, out of almost nowhere in terms of your international career. The timing of this really can’t be overlooked. And just being around the squad will ensure that it’s a lot more difficult for Southgate to overlook him. Club performances are only half of this, after all. Southgate usually makes final decisions on how players are around his camp, what they’re like, how they train. It is why this break has such greater importance than usual.

That is why he has an advantage over figures like Elliott, although players like the Liverpool midfielder and White can really only keep doing what they’re doing with their clubs. There’s enough time in that sense for them.

If you’re not playing now you can almost write off playing in Qatar. That isn’t the case for Dier. He has enjoyed a resurgence under Antonio Conte at Tottenham Hotspur, which has meant he has another chance under Southgate.

The message from this squad is anyone left out now has to really put it in.