Gabriel Moreno: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

When a consensus top-10 prospect is summoned to the major league level, the fantasy community always takes notice. As such, many were scrambling to the waiver wire once the Toronto Blue Jays announced that Gabriel Moreno was being called up to replace the injured Danny Jansen on their roster.

To say that Moreno is a hyped prospect would be an understatement. He came into the season as the 9th-ranked prospect in the game per FanGraphs and fourth per MLB Pipeline, with his outstanding bat-to-ball skills receiving universal praise. He’s also a solid defensive catcher, adding to his appeal in both fantasy and reality.

All of that said, the 22-year-old may not deliver on the lofty expectations placed on his shoulders, especially in the fantasy game. His contact skills are excellent, but Moreno is yet to flash much power or speed in game contexts. Furthermore, Moreno’s unique status as a catcher that can hit isn’t terribly valuable to the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays roster. Let’s talk about it.

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MLB Pipeline is the higher of the two scouting sources cited above, so let’s begin with their grades for Moreno. They see a 60-grade hit tool on the 20-80 scouting scale, 55 power, 45 running, and 55 arm and fielding at catcher. The accompanying scouting report notes a “short, compact” swing that generates lots of contact and added strength that could make Moreno a 20-homer bat down the line. However, his power projection will be realized “eventually,” suggesting that fantasy managers shouldn’t expect much in that department immediately.

FanGraphs takes that sentiment one step further by slapping a 40 on his current game power with 50 raw power. They too project growth in this area, but only to 45 game power with raw power holding steady. FanGraphs isn’t as high on Moreno’s hit tool either with a 55 rising to 60 in the future, but the bigger concern is that FanGraphs doesn’t see many 20-HR seasons on the horizon.

JT Realmuto comes up a lot as a comp for Moreno, but Moreno’s athleticism doesn’t manifest itself in his footspeed the way Realmuto’s does. To wit, Realmuto had three MiLB seasons with at least 10 SB before debuting for the Marlins while Moreno has zero.

Gabriel Moreno Mashing on the Farm

Most analysts agree that Moreno’s prospect breakout coincided with his debut in the high minors, where he hit .373/.441/.651 with eight homers over 145 PAs for Double-A (New Hampshire). Moreno flashed excellent plate discipline with a 9.7 BB% and 15.2 K%. His excellent batting average was buoyed by a .398 BABIP that’s unlikely to repeat at the highest level, especially with a 13.7 LD%. His power indicators also looked good with a 38.2 FB% and 20.5% HR/FB, though the latter figure was nearly double anything he had posted previously.

Unfortunately, Moreno’s 2021 campaign was cut short by a right thumb fracture in July. He returned to record 10 PAs for Triple-A (Buffalo), but Moreno missed out on the entire 2020 season (since the MiLB season was canceled) and then half of 2021. He was sent to the Arizona Fall League and then the Venezuelan Winter League to get more reps.

Moreno began the 2022 campaign at Triple-A and largely repeated what he did at New Hampshire in a similar sample size, but with one key difference: .324/.380/.404 with one homer in 150 PAs. His BABIP was again high at .391, though this time it was at least partially supported by a 29.4 LD%. The plate discipline was still great with an 8 BB% and 17.3 K%, but where did the power go? His FB% plummeted to 22, and his 4.2% HR/FB didn’t suggest that more flies would be a good idea.

Changing ballparks probably wasn’t the cause as both New Hampshire (93 HR factor from 2017 to 2019) and Buffalo (94) suppress homers at similar rates. There seems to be a launch angle adjustment with his decline in FB% almost exactly matching his LD% spike, though that suggests that Moreno needs to learn how to elevate the baseball more often. Since the rest of his MiLB history supports 2022’s power production, that’s probably what we should expect at least for this season.

No Vacancy for Gabriel Moreno?

As a competent defensive catcher who can hit, you would expect Moreno to get a long leash at the MLB level. After all, it’s not like the Orioles are giving up on Adley Rutschman after his cold start. However, the Blue Jays are in the thick of the race and have more established alternatives. For instance, Alejandro Kirk is slashing .318/.401/.471 with five homers and ranks in the 93rd percentile for his framing per Statcast. He is second among catchers in FanGraphs WAR as well, so it’s not like Moreno’s being a catcher gets a weak bat out of Toronto’s lineup.

Similarly, Danny Jansen is slashing a lopsided but still respectable .232/.290/.625 with seven homers in just 62 PAs. He’s hurt right now but hasn’t done anything to lose his role as Kirk’s backup if not make a case for more playing time. The team is already talking about using Kirk or Moreno as their DH, a role that severely reduces the impact a catcher can have.

The team also hit Moreno eighth in each of his first two games, suggesting that they don’t plan on giving him an important lineup spot. It’s easy to see Moreno going back to Triple-A for more seasoning once Jansen heals up.

The Verdict on Gabriel Moreno

Moreno doesn’t steal many bases and has a mixed track record at best with his power. His bat-to-ball skills are likely to translate to the MLB game, but does a .280 average in the back of the lineup move the needle for fantasy purposes? Even that might be optimistic as ZiPS projects Moreno for a .256 average over the rest of the season.

Moreno’s value will probably never be higher, so it might make sense to trade him in redraft leagues. Even managers in keeper and dynasty formats may wish to get out now in case FanGraphs is right and he never contributes power or speed. That makes him a Chump for fantasy purposes.

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