From the Asian Century to Fortress Australia in just over a decade

Although our international interests and economic relationships are far broader and immensely more complex than in the past, Australia has fewer diplomats posted overseas in its small diplomatic network today than it had three decades ago. We spent about $40 billion on defence last year, compared with about $1.5 billion on diplomacy. We have one of the smallest diplomatic networks in all the developed world, albeit a larger one than five years ago – under Julie Bishop and Marise Payne, the government expanded the network by 12 per cent but neglected to follow that through with more money. Those hardworking diplomats keep doing more with less.

Foreign policy is (still) a man’s world. But the fact that I was able to hold a senior role in a highly regarded think tank illustrates that world is changing. Two years ago, I and four female colleagues published a lengthy study on women in international relations. Despite Australia appointing its first female foreign minister (and then its second), its first female secretaries of Foreign Affairs and Trade and then Defence departments (on the heels of its first female PM and Governor-General), the evidence showed that behind these trailblazers, the pipeline of women coming into the sector was extremely limited, and few were in senior positions.

I watch with dismay a bickering country with a fortress mentality, states divided, locking out each other and the rest of the world.

In 2019, 32 per cent of Australia’s heads of diplomatic missions abroad were women, a smaller proportion than in the United States, New Zealand and Canada. For us to point this out publicly must have rankled with Frances Adamson, then DFAT’s secretary, who was in the middle of a vigorous push to increase the representation of women in her senior ranks. That push has borne fruit; in 2016, at the start of her tenure, 19 per cent of those head-of-mission positions were held by women. By the time she retired (a few weeks ago), that number had doubled to nearly 40 per cent. An impressive achievement.

Yet Australia’s challenges in delivering a coherent foreign policy are about more than the quality or gender of its diplomats or the resourcing of its diplomacy. The challenge of climate change – something that drew me to the Lowy Institute back in 2007 – is an example, surging not just in its physical impacts, but in public concern about the problem. Lowy Institute polling finds that more than six in 10 Australians see it as a critical threat to our interests. Yet policy is lagging opinion, and Australia lags most of its peers in its global commitments.

This year more than ever, the challenges we face are about the resolve and cohesion of the nation. In 2021, I watch with dismay a bickering country with a fortress mentality, states divided, locking out each other and the rest of the world.

Delayed vaccine supply is one problem. The ever-so-slight imperfections of AstraZeneca are another. But while crowds at Wimbledon stand to applaud AstraZeneca co-creator Dame Sarah Gilbert for her genius and dedication, we Australians smugly cavil at taking a risk minuscule in comparison with that posed by the virus. We pride ourselves in our swashbuckling independent spirit, yet cower in unvaccinated lockdowns, shutting out our neighbours, dividing families and causing untold harm to businesses and the economy.

I would not have predicted this from my decade of polling on our attitudes to the world. I have often said Australians are outward-looking, surprisingly well-informed, and make pragmatic and good judgments about the country’s interests. I hope their good instincts guide them in the right direction now.

Alex Oliver is Director of Research at the Lowy Institute, and is leaving her role this week.