Former Australian PM Tony Abbott says climate warnings are ‘ahistorical and implausible’

Former prime minister Tony Abbott has claimed some warnings of human-induced climate change are “ahistorical and utterly implausible”, criticising what he called “the climate cult” in a speech in London.

The former Liberal leader – who earlier this year was nominated to join the board of Fox Corporation by Lachlan Murdoch – decried what he claimed was an “emissions obsession”, pointing to historical examples of warmer and cooler periods which had “nothing to do with mankind’s emissions.”

“I think it is worth stating that the anthropogenic global warming thesis, at least in its more extreme forms, is both ahistorical and utterly implausible,” Abbott said at the launch of a report on energy by the Institute of Public Affairs on Tuesday.

“And I think that needs to be repeated. Ladies and gentlemen, the climate cult will eventually be discredited.”

Abbott’s remarks come a week after scientists warned Earth’s “vital signs” are worse than at any time in human history, with 20 of the 35 planetary vital signs at record extremes, including July being probably the hottest the planet has been in 100,000 years.

Abbott, the Australian prime minister from 2013-15, lost his seat of Warringah at the 2019 election to independent Zali Steggall, who campaigned heavily on stronger climate action. Abbott infamously described the “so-called settled science of climate change” as “absolute crap” in 2009; in 2017 he suggested climate change is “probably doing good” in a speech in London in which he likened policies to combat it to “primitive people once killing goats to appease the volcano gods”.

In London this week, Abbott spoke at the launch of a new paper on energy security from the IPA, a rightwing Australian think tank. According to a transcript of his remarks shared by his office, Abbott claimed that while he was in office he had a “mantra” of saying climate change was real, that mankind made a difference and that reasonable steps should be taken to reduce emissions.

“Then I would invariably add this rider but not at the expense of jobs, at the expense of ordinary people’s cost of living, and with the effect of driving important industries offshore to countries that don’t take emissions as seriously as we do,” he said.

“Sometimes, when I was feeling particularly bold, I would add things like this: you know, 10,000 years or so back we had an ice age. That was rather dramatic climate change, but presumably that had nothing to do with mankind’s carbon dioxide emissions.”

According to Nasa, “the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97% – agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change”. Research from Cornell University in 2021 found the scientific consensus that humans are altering the climate had passed 99.9%.

Three studies in 2019 used extensive historical data to show there has never been a period in the last 2,000 years when temperature changes have been as fast and extensive as in recent decades. The studies found that periods dubbed the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which were referred to in Abbott’s speech, did not take place in more than half the globe at any one time.

In recent weeks climate scientists have warned of inevitable accelerated ice melt in Antarctica, that Earth’s “vital signs” are worse than at any time in human history, and that the Earth is moving dangerously close to irreversible tipping points that would drastically damage our ability to cope with disasters.

Abbott said he believed voters would continue prioritising cost of living and energy price issues over emissions reduction.

“I’m pleased to be chosen for this task tonight because I suppose I’m one of the very few national leaders who has been elected to office promising to end the emissions obsession which has dominated energy policy for the last two decades,” he said.

“I have to say that on every occasion in Australia where energy policy and climate policy has been a big election focus, it’s the people who have been on the sceptical end of the spectrum who have done well. On every occasion when the Australian public have been asked to choose between reducing emissions and protecting their cost of living, they’ve put their cost of living first.”

Australia’s current Labor government was elected in 2022 on the promise of a 43% emissions reduction target by 2030 based on 2005 emissions levels, compared with the then-Coalition government’s 26-28% target which was agreed under Abbott’s administration. Labor also set an ambitious target of 82% of Australia’s energy coming from renewables by 2030.

Abbott claimed in his speech that “energy wasn’t an issue” at the 2022 election because both major parties had committed to net zero – but conceded “one side was much more committed than the other”.

He said Australia should be an “energy superpower” due to its reserves of coal, gas and uranium; and appeared to lament that Australia could not more quickly make the switch from coal to gas, due to much of the country’s gas reserves being locked into export contracts.