Forecast claims Penny Mordaunt will win backing of Tory MPs to become next PM

A forecast for who will be picked among Conservative MPs to become the next leader has chosen Penny Mordaunt ahead of Rishi Sunak. When two candidates are chosen by MPs, party members vote

Penny Mordaunt has emerged as one of the favourites to win the Conservative leadership race (

Image: Getty Images)

Penny Mordaunt is the favourite among other Conservative MPs to become the new leader and take over as prime minister, according to forecasters.

The candidate list has been whittled down to six now with Jeremy Hunt and Nadhim Zahawi eliminated after failing to receive 30 votes in the first ballot of Tory MPs.

Further ballots will be held until there are two candidates left and then it will be down to party members to choose the leader through a postal vote.

Currently Rishi Sunak is favourite with 56 public backs among MPs and winning 88 votes in the first round of the leadership contest.

But Ms Mordaunt has quickly emerged as a strong contender, boasting 67 votes in the first ballot and 34 public backers.

A new forecast has made her the favourite among Conservative MPs (

Image:

Tayfun Salci/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock)

And she has been predicted to eventually gain the most votes from fellow Tory MPs through the Conservative Leadership Election Forecast, produced by Patrick Flynn, political analyst at betting exchange Smarkets, broadcast on ITV ‘s Peston.

The forecast was based on the modelling of MPs’ choices in the 2019 leadership race, when they were elected, their stance over the EU referendum, as well as their voting record, whether they served under Boris Johnson in his Cabinet and other variables at constituency level.

The prediction is for Ms Mordaunt to get 133 MP votes with Mr Sunak second with 129 MP votes and Liz Truss is predicted to come in third with 96 MP votes.

So far more than 200 Tory MPs have indicated which of the remaining candidates they are backing with six candidates left.

Rishi Sunak has had most support after the first ballot in the leadership race (

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PA)

Those supporting Mr Sunak include former fellow contender Mr Hunt and ex-education secretary Sir Gavin Williamson, who said Mr Sunak is “by far the strongest performer” of the candidates.

Mr Hunt described the former chancellor as having the “highest standards of integrity”.

In a statement Mr Hunt said: “I’ve been around long enough to know that politics is really about character and Rishi is one of the most decent, straight people with the highest standards of integrity that I have ever met in British politics and that’s why I would be proud to have him as my next prime minister.”

Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, dropped out of the race on Tuesday and put his weight behind Mr Sunak, who he said “has the competence and experience to lead this country”.

Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab backed Mr Sunak at his official campaign launch in London on Tuesday morning, saying: “While others talk the talk, Rishi this month delivered the biggest tax cut for working people in a decade. He did it because he is a true Conservative.”

Ms Maudaunt also has a lot of support including from Andrea Leadsom and Michael Fabricant (

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Getty Images)

Among his other backers are former housing minister Robert Jenrick, ex-secretary of state for Health and Social Care Matt Hancock and former secretary of state for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Oliver Dowden, who said: “Rishi is the best person to lead our country and unquestionably the best person to beat Labour.”

Ms Mordaunt also has strong backing with Andrea Leadsom, former secretary of state for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, saying the trade minister “has the values, drive and conviction of her beliefs to move our country forward”.

Outspoken MP for Lichfield Michael Fabricant tweeted: “Penny Mordaunt shares my socially liberal views but, like me, will ensure there will be no compromise on the British wish for a clean break with the EU… She was also a 1st rate Armed Forces Minister and will be tough with Russia.”

Veteran MP and former cabinet minister David Davis declared his support for Ms Mordaunt on Tuesday, while Mr Shapps’ former backers James Davies and Trudy Harrison shifted their allegiances to the MP for Portsmouth North on Wednesday.

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