For North Korea, defectors don’t always mean leverage

STORY: After US soldier Travis King dashed into North Korea on Tuesday, diplomatic relations between Washington and Pyongyang are once again in the spotlight.

The US State Department on Wednesday said it had reached out to counterparts in the North’s Korean People’s Army for information, but hadn’t yet heard back.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESPERSON, MATTHEW MILLER, SAYING:

“As you can imagine, a situation like this, those discussions are quite sensitive, and I’m not prepared to go into all the details at this time. What I will say is that we here at the State Department have engaged with counterparts in South Korea and with Sweden on this issue, including here in Washington.”

Previously, Sweden has played a crucial role in contact between Western governments and North Korea, as one of only a few countries with an embassy in Pyongyang.

But using that channel right now could prove tricky.

(SOUNDBITE) (Korean) SOUTH KOREA’S FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND UNIFICATION COMMITTEE MEMBER, TAE YONG-HO, SAYING:

“Normally when Americans have been in this kind of situation before, the US government needs to go through the Swedish embassy in Pyongyang, but that’s currently closed because of COVID-19, so the US will have to figure out a new diplomatic route.”

Tae Yong-ho is a former North Korea diplomat.

He told Reuters that while it might initially look like Pyongyang has unexpectedly acquired diplomatic leverage, it won’t necessarily lead to significant gain for the communist state.

(SOUNDBITE) (Korean) SOUTH KOREA’S FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND UNIFICATION COMMITTEE MEMBER, TAE YONG-HO, SAYING:

“I’m skeptical about whether North Korea would use this U.S. military personnel politically, given his military rank is not that high.”

The cost for North Korea of security, surveillance and interpretation for King could start to stack up too.

A growing number of analysts have also cast doubt on how Pyongyang will be able to use King to their advantage.

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Joshua Fitt is from the Center for a New American Security.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) JOSHUA FITT OF THE CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY, SAYING:

“I would have to imagine that they are not very optimistic about what they can get for him. But, at the same time the United States is committed to bringing home citizens from detention abroad .”

Yet some have told Reuters discussions over the soldier’s fate could see some of the first direct diplomatic engagement between North Korea and the United States in years.

Pyongyang reportedly has a standard playbook for treating American and other Western detainees or defectors well to avoid political blowback.

One notable exception is U.S. college student Otto Warmbier, who died in 2017 shortly after being released from a North Korea prison.

Ellen Kim is with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) ELLEN KIM DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE KOREA CHAIR AND SENIOR FELLOW WITH THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (CSIS), SAYING:

“We do not want to see another Otto Warmbier case, and I do not think North Korea will try that because it will have huge consequences.”

The bigger question however is whether King’s dash could affect stalled denuclearisation talks or crack the North’s lingering isolation following the COVID-19 pandemic.

The North has been pressing on with ballistic missile tests.

The latest of those was timed for the arrival in South Korea of a US nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine – for the first time since the 1980s.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) ELLEN KIM DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE KOREA CHAIR AND SENIOR FELLOW WITH THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (CSIS), SAYING:

“The submarine is there to show US commitment to the defence of South Korea, and if not, that will really make South Korea think about going nuclear. Seriously. So that’s a worse case scenario.”

North Korea remained silent on the situation on Thursday.

State media, which in the past reported on the detention of U.S. nationals, have also not commented on the incident so far.