Five MLB teams that need a turnaround to make playoffs (and their chances to do so)

Players love to talk baseball. Just not the way fans and the media often do. I was in Cooperstown, N.Y., for the Hall of Fame Classic Game over Memorial Day weekend, which is generally regarded as the time to start taking the standings seriously. At least that’s what front offices usually do.

But players don’t look at that as a benchmark, either. Among the group of 30 players, most of them recent MLB retirees, there was plenty of talk about the standings. And every guy — every single guy — would shrug and mention it was a long season. Brian Dozier, part of the 2019 Nationals that started 19-31, joked I should know better. I had been around those Nationals, who were under .500 for the last time on June 26 en route to winning the World Series. Maybe so.

Even now, with most teams having played roughly 40 percent of their games, hope isn’t lost.

The 2021 Atlanta Braves entered the All-Star break under .500 and didn’t really turn things on until an 18-win August. Atlanta played to a .611 second-half winning percentage, and the ‘19 Nats played to a .630.

The original idea for this story was, “Five teams that need to turn it around ASAP,” but really do they need to do it ASAP? It’s more like, “Five teams we expected more from that have the benefit of time, recent history and expanded playoffs.” Doesn’t quite have the same ring.

The most important thing in assessing these five underperforming teams is determining why they’re playing poorly and whether they have it in them to get to .600-plus ball. Let’s assess.

The Mets had an up close and personal look at that 2021 Atlanta Braves team; its rise coincided with the Mets circling the drain. In 2022, the Mets jumped out to a big divisional lead only to watch Atlanta turn on the jets and in a dagger of a late-season series sweep, take the National League East with them. This year, a Mets team built around aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander has Kodai Senga — who isn’t even used to pitching in a five-man rotation — leading the staff in innings. Verlander, who has a 4.85 ERA in seven games, has to be better. Scherzer has to stay healthy. The Mets’ injuries — which now include slugger Pete Alonso — suggest that at some point there is room for improvement. New York’s offense has been league average, which isn’t exactly what owner Steve Cohen envisioned when he put together a record payroll. How bad are things in Flushing? There’s already talk about job security. The only way to quiet that is to win. New York has a 34.2 percent chance of making the playoffs (per FanGraphs). They’re a talented veteran group as well-positioned (and resourced) as anyone to make a deep run. And they’ve seen firsthand what can happen when a team gets hot.

Turnaround chances: 6 out of 10 

Let’s put San Diego’s season in perspective with just one stat: win streaks. The Padres’ longest this season is three games, which isn’t going to get it done when you’re a team that came out of the gates struggling and is now chasing the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers. There’s no question they have the talent to reel off nine in a row or win 12 of 13. The question is will they ever do it? The computers still believe in them. San Diego entered Monday with a 54.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, far and away the most of any of the teams on this list. Manager Bob Melvin is one of the most respected guys in baseball, Manny Machado is back off the injured list and making ridiculous catches, and Juan Soto has started to be Juan Soto again. The Padres were built around an offense — which also includes Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Boagerts — that has been largely underwhelming. This team has the talent to be scary if it ever gets hot and stays hot. It seems crazy to think the bats will stay this cold for 3 1/2 more months, but it’s also crazy to see San Diego still floundering under .500 with a .391 team slugging percentage.

Turnaround chances: 7 out of 10. 

St. Louis is the only team on this list that entered Monday in last place in their division after going 3-7 in their past 10 to sink back under the Cubs. They dropped a series to the rebuilding Reds over the weekend; those three games spotlighted their situational hitting struggles. After a brutal start to the season and drama over Willson Contreras at catcher, St. Louis looked like it was back on track with wins in 10 of 13 games, only to drop 12 of the next 18. Like the Mets, there’s talk about job security, specifically for manager Oli Marmol, and speculation the Cardinals could be sellers at the deadline. Their starting pitching depth was an issue this spring and St. Louis has struggled mightily to win one-run games. The Cardinals have an 18.6 percent chance to make the playoffs, but this looks like a flawed roster. There’s not an easy fix here and, Cardinals voodoo magic aside, it’s tough to see places for a prolonged hot stretch even though St. Louis has the benefit of the NL Central being a weaker division. Only the Rockies, A’s and Royals have a worse winning percentage.

Turnaround chances: 5 out of 10. 

Does Seattle have the same pressure as the Mets and Padres? Of course not. But having finally ended their playoff drought, the Mariners were projected to be a wild-card team, perhaps a plucky underdog that could finally unseat the Houston Astros. Sure, the ascent of the Rangers has made their playoff path more difficult and their starters have struggled at times. But the Mariners are a team built to hit home runs that isn’t hitting home runs. Seattle ranks 21st in long balls entering Monday. The hosts of this year’s All-Star Game, Seattle has had some great individual performances from Jarred Kelenic and Cal Raleigh, but they just can’t translate them into wins and enter Monday coming off a brutal road trip. Julio Rodríguez has the ability to carry a team, but this division has become significantly tougher this season.

Turnaround chances: 5 out of 10 

The White Sox entered Monday with a 7.1 percent chance to make the playoffs which, considering they’re in the American League Central and being at .500 is enough for first place, is incredibly telling. Chicago got off to a brutal 8-21 start and then rebounded to have a winning May. Just when you thought they turned the corner, they dropped a series to the Marlins, twice losing the lead in the ninth and losing reliever Liam Hendriks — the best story in baseball — to the injured list. Every year it seems like we wonder if this group in Chicago will turn it around, stave off the injury bug and do what they were projected to years ago. It’s a highly winnable division. The team has changed managers. It’s changed player personnel. At what point do the organizational problems run deeper?

Turnaround chances: 4 out of 10 

(Photo of Max Scherzer: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)