Five keys for the Columbus Blue Jackets to compete for a playoff spot in 2022-23

Sep 25, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets left wing Johnny Gaudreau (13) fires a shot past Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Josh Archibald (15) during the preseason NHL hockey game at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch

They’re being written off again.

It’s the fourth straight year since Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky left as free agents that NHL analysts’ prognostications have handed the Blue Jackets a forecast of gloom and doom.

Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine have revived postseason hopes in Columbus, but they can’t do it alone. It’s going to take another overachieving season for the Jackets to erase a 19-point gap between their 81 points last season and the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot, but it’s not impossible.

A lot has to go right, but Columbus could make a legitimate playoff bid. Here are five keys for the Blue Jackets to make it happen:

Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov (44) defends Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Brandon Hagel (38) during the second period of the NHL game at Nationwide Arena in Columbus on April 28, 2022.

Goal differential critical for Columbus Blue Jackets

Any team with Gaudreau, Laine, Jakub Voracek, Zach Werenski, Jack Roslovic and Boone Jenner is going to score enough goals.

The issue is preventing them.

The Blue Jackets counteracted a franchise record 262 goals last season by allowing a franchise record 300 for a minus-38 goal differential. None of the East’s eight playoff qualifiers finished in the red for goal differential and the lowest number among them was +30 by the Washington Capitals, who earned the second wild card.

That’s a ton of ground to make up, which is why Blue Jackets coach Brad Larsen has emphasized the importance of goal differential in training camp and is making system changes to improve defensive play. If it leads to the Blue Jackets finishing in the green, there’s a good chance they’ll stay in the playoff chase.

Sep 25, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins (90) douses himself in water during the second period of the preseason NHL hockey game against the Pittsburgh Penguins at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch

Columbus Blue Jackets goalie Elvis Merzlikins must shine

Merzlikins has shown elite talent, but lapses in focus have led to inconsistency. Injuries also bogged him down in 2020-21. The Blue Jackets need a new Merzlikins in the first installment of his five-year contract worth $27 million ($5.4 million annually).

Merzlikins’ focus waned last year following the death of close friend and former Blue Jackets goalie Matiss Kivlenieks, but handling the heaviest workload of his career helped the Latvian netminder move forward. He enters this season with the goal of staying sharp more often and giving the Jackets a stability in net they haven’t had since Bobrovsky.

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If he’s up to the challenge, the Jackets’ odds of making a playoff push increase significantly.

Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine must stay healthy for Columbus Blue Jackets

Gaudreau played all 82 games in his final season with the Calgary Flames and rarely sat out with injuries in a nine-year tenure there. He’s not the biggest guy, but his skating helps him avoid most big hits.

That needs to continue if the Blue Jackets want to earn a playoff appearance. That’s how vital Gaudreau is for this team. The same applies to Laine, who has battled injuries the past few years.

An oblique strain combined with his father’s unexpected death kept him out for almost six weeks (19 games) last year, and the Blue Jackets nosedived. Laine started and finished with a point-a-game pace last season, helping the Jackets start with a 6-3-0 record and then pacing them to a 14-7-2 record with 19-14-33 in a 23-game stretch after returning (Jan. 27 to Mar. 19).

Gaudreau was on his way to a career-high 115 points for the Flames at the time, but now they’re linemates in Columbus who need to avoid injuries.

Columbus Blue Jackets center Gustav Nyquist (14) muscles past Ottawa Senators left wing Tim Stützle (18) during the NHL game at Nationwide Arena on April 22, 2022.

Columbus Blue Jackets seeking more consistency

The Blue Jackets were one of the NHL’s youngest teams in 2021-22, which explains some of their wild swings.

They started out 12-6-0, fell into a 6-15-1 skid, ripped off 10 wins in a 14-game stretch and then finished 10-14-6 in the final 30 games.

“The biggest thing throughout a season is you’ve got to be consistent,” said forward Gustav Nyquist, who has played in seven NHL postseasons with the Detroit Red Wings, San Jose Sharks and Blue Jackets (2020). “We can’t have dips for too long. We can’t lose too many games in a row, and you’ve just got to find a way to play at a high level consistently.”

Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Yegor Chinakhov (59) twirls his stick as he celebrates scoring his first NHL goal during the third period of the hockey game against the Detroit Red Wings at Nationwide Arena in Columbus on Monday, Nov. 15, 2021. The Blue Jackets won 5-3.

Growth of ‘X-factor’ players can boost Columbus Blue Jackets

Thanks to their youth, there are a number of Blue Jackets who could become X-factors.

Yegor Chinakhov is a prime example after leading the NHL with six preseason goals. Chinakhov finished last season with seven goals, seven assists and 14 points in 62 games as a rookie, which was disappointing for him after winning the Kontinental Hockey League’s top rookie honor in 2020-21.

Should Chinakhov give the Blue Jackets 20-plus goals and they get another 20-plus from Cole Sillinger, a 19-year old center who scored 16 goals as a rookie, that would add a major boost in scoring depth. And that’s not mentioning Justin Danforth’s 10 goals in 45 games as a first-year forward or defenseman Adam Boqvist’s 11 goals, 11 assists and 22 points in 52 games.

Rookies Kent Johnson, Liam Foudy, Nick Blankenburg and Kirill Marchenko could also become X-factor, types, even with Marchenko playing for the Cleveland Monsters to start out.

bhedger@dispatch.com

@BrianHedger

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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Five keys for Columbus Blue Jackets to earn playoff spot