FIRST ALERT WEATHER: Cool Tuesday with rain passing through

Good Tuesday morning, everyone. After a nice day to kick off spring yesterday with highs in the upper 50s and some lower 60s, plan on a much cooler day with what’s coming into the Ozarks. At the surface, we have a frontal system developing across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas working together with an upper-level wave coming out of the Rockies.

Active weather setup with a front to our west coming in(KY3)

Rain developing in the western Ozarks and to the west of the region will come together and push from west to east through the morning and into the early afternoon. As it does, it primarily be light to moderate rain with maybe a clap of thunder or two. We aren’t expecting anything to turn heavy or strong today.

Rain continues this morning(KY3)Rain working into eastern Ozarks this afternoon(KY3)

By late afternoon, the last of the rain chances will be working out of the eastern Ozarks and will leave us with about half an inch of rain on average across the area. While the rain chances will move on by late afternoon and this evening, the mostly cloudy skies will stay with us through the day.

Rain moving out late afternoon(KY3)

As the rain chances come through, it will keep us in the lower 40s through this morning. Once it clears out, our south and southeast wind at 15-25 mph will do its best to send a good number of spots into the middle to upper 40s. The eastern Ozarks may actually stay in the lower 40s for much of the day.

Much cooler for today(KY3)

Look at what happens to the numbers through the evening and into Wednesday morning, though. While the numbers will stay in the 40s through the evening, the south wind will tap into more milder air and send temperatures from lows in the 40s at midnight to temperatures in the lower 50s by sunrise Wednesday morning.

Warming up before sunrise Wednesday(KY3)

That continued south wind with mostly cloudy skies giving way to some partly sunny skies through the day will result in highs climbing back into the lower 70s across the Ozarks for Wednesday afternoon.

Much milder again Wednesday afternoon(KY3)

In fact, Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week with highs in the lower 70s. That’s 10° above the average high of 61° for this part of March. However, note how the temperatures will take another tumble by the time we get into the weekend.

Plenty of mild air returns by Wednesday & Thursday(KY3)

That drop in temperatures will be due to a stronger storm system coming in for Thursday and Friday. Based on how things look, we have First Alert Weather Days in place for both days.

First Alert Days for Thursday & Friday with a stronger system on the way(KY3)

A stronger upper-level wave coming out of the Pacific will start to interact with a front that will be draped across the Ozarks on Thursday. While we could have a handful of showers early in the day, we’ll wait until Thursday afternoon and evening for strong to possibly severe storms with a wind and hail threat to keep an eye on.

Watching storms late Thursday(KY3)

Even if we can somehow dodge the strong t-storm threat, we’ll have periods of moderate to heavy rain continue through Thursday night and to take us into Friday.

Rain continues through Friday(KY3)

While the rain today could leave behind about half an inch of rain on average, the rain for Thursday and Friday could bring rain totals by Saturday to a range of an inch to over 4 inches for some. The heaviest of the rain wants to set up primarily in the southeastern Ozarks south of I-44.

High rain amounts within a 2-day span raising a flooding concern(KY3)

While it will be dry with mostly sunny skies returning for Saturday and highs around 60°, we’ll have another system clip us with another chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms for Sunday.

Another chance for showers & storms Sunday(KY3)

Even with that quick system, we’ll see highs around 63° for Sunday. Looking at early next week, Monday looks dry and a bit chilly with highs back in the middle 50s. We’ll continue to watch the rain chances today and monitor the First Alert Days for Thursday and Friday very closely.

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