First Alert for more rounds of rain and potential flooding Tuesday
Good Tuesday #GoodTuesday
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) – Good Tuesday morning! We have seen a lot of rainfall over the past 24 to 48 hours. Parts of Birmingham alone recorded over three inches of rain yesterday with isolated spots receiving over five inches! I wish I had some good news for you, but the rain chances continue today. First Alert AccuTrack Satellite and Radar is showing widespread clouds and spotty showers across the Southeast thanks to a stalled front across the area. This front is the main reason we continue to see rounds of showers and storms. We are dealing with spotty showers this morning. Most of the rain is light, but I can’t rule out some pockets of heavier rain and some embedded lightning and thunder. All the moisture today is moving from west to east-northeast today. We are also watching areas of patchy fog developing in parts of Shelby, Chilton, Bibb, Jefferson, and Walker counties. Make sure you slow down if you encounter dense fog and use your low beams. We will likely stay overcast to mostly cloudy today with high temperatures climbing into the lower 80s. Winds will continue from the southwest at 5-10 mph. I have a 70% chance for showers and storms today. Rain can develop at any hour, but I think our best chance to see showers and storms today will be in the late afternoon and evening hours. The biggest threat today is heavy rainfall and the potential to see flash flooding. We already saw significant flooding yesterday around Birmingham and in the Vestavia Hills area. Just remember to never drive through flooded areas. Simply turn around, don’t drown. Rainfall totals could add up around 1-2″ with isolated spots receiving 3″ today.
Scattered to Numerous Storms Continue Tomorrow: We will likely start tomorrow morning off cloudy and muggy with temperatures in the lower 70s. A few showers can’t be ruled out for your morning commute. We will likely see additional showers and storms fire up in the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. Rain chance around 60%. Storms could produce heavy rain and some lightning tomorrow. Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer than today, but we will remain below average. Plan for highs in the low to mid 80s. Normally we should see highs in the lower 90s.
Scattered Storms to Finish Out the Work Week: Models are not backing off on our rain chances as we finish out the work week. I’m holding on to a 50% chance for scattered storms mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Morning hours will trend drier with temperatures in the lower 70s. I do think we’ll see some breaks in the cloud cover giving us some sunshine Thursday and Friday. With a little more sunshine, we will likely trend warmer with highs in the upper 80s. A few storms could become strong in the afternoon hours capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds around 30-40 mph.
Next Big Thing: Our next big thing is the potential to see lower rain chances by this weekend. Latest models aren’t as aggressive on our rain chances Saturday and Sunday. I’m introducing a 30% chance for rain on Saturday and a 20% chance for isolated storms on Sunday. With lower rain chances and a little more sunshine, temperatures will trend warmer. I think we’ll see morning lows in the low to mid 70s and highs in the lower 90s. Sunday is looking like our hottest day of the weekend with a high near 92°F. When you factor in the humidity levels, it could easily feel like it is in the upper 90s to triple digits. If you plan on working outside, make sure you do so in the morning hours and take several breaks in the afternoon. Stay hydrated!
Hot with Widely Scattered Storms Next Week: Next week’s weather pattern is looking a little drier and very hot. The GFS model is keeping us mostly dry with highs well into the 90s. The European model is a little cooler and is showing a slightly higher chance for widely scattered storms. I’ll blend the two models together and add a 30% chance for widely scattered storms next Monday through Wednesday. I think it’ll be one of the hottest weeks we have seen this summer with highs in the low to mid 90s. Good news is that we’ll dry out a little compared to what we are seeing this week. Tropical Update: The tropics remain unusually quiet. It’s been almost two weeks of quiet conditions across the entire Atlantic Basin. Main reason is due to sinking air, dry conditions, and Saharan dust suppressing storms from developing. It isn’t unusual to see July remain quiet. I just hope it isn’t a “calm before the storm” as we enter our busiest months: August and September. Make sure you download the WBRC First Alert Weather App for the latest weather information.
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