First Alert for a wet morning commute Tuesday; Drier conditions by the afternoon hours

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) – Good morning and happy Tuesday! You’ll need to grab the umbrella and rain jacket before you step out the door this morning. First Alert AccuTrack Satellite and Radar is showing scattered showers and widespread cloud cover across Central Alabama. The rain is light to moderate and shifting to the east-southeast. This is a good soaking rain with very little to no lightning. I would just plan for a wet morning commute. Just slow down and allow some extra time to get to work or school. Don’t forget to turn your lights on if it is raining. Temperatures this morning remain very mild for this time of the year. Most of us are waking up in the 50s. We are forecasting most of this rain moving out of Central Alabama around noon. A lingering shower or two will be possible during the afternoon hours, but most of the widespread rain will be out of here. We should see a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky this afternoon with high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s. Winds will come from the southwest today at 5-10 mph. If you plan on being outside this evening, we will likely remain dry and mostly cloudy with temperatures cooling into the lower 60s around 6-7 PM. Patchy fog could be an issue for us this evening and tonight, so be on alert for reduced visibility if you plan on driving tonight.

Widely Scattered Showers Wednesday: We’ll likely start tomorrow morning off mostly cloudy and warm with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Patchy dense fog could be an issue, so you might want to allow some extra time to get to your destination tomorrow morning. We will likely remain mostly cloudy tomorrow with a 40% chance for widely scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. The best chance for rain will likely occur during the afternoon and evening hours. Most of the showers that develop tomorrow will travel from south to north. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will end up 10-15 degrees above average with highs in the lower 70s. Winds will likely become breezy tomorrow evening with south winds at 5-15 mph. We could see winds gust to 20-25 mph Wednesday night.

Tuesday hourly forecast(wbrc)

Next Big Thing: The big story this week is the arrival of a cold front early Thursday morning. A line of storms will likely develop in Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi Wednesday evening. The line of storms is forecast to move into Central Alabama early Thursday morning between midnight and 7 AM. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a marginal risk- threat level 1 out of 5- for most of Central Alabama late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The main threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. We can’t rule out hail and maybe a brief, spin-up tornado, but the threat for that appears very low at this time. I think this particular setup will lack unstable air to sustain and intensify storms. With the lack of unstable air, storms could be strong but not severe. The greatest severe threat will likely remain to our west in Mississippi where a standard slight risk- threat level 2 out of 5 – has been issued. Plan for wet and stormy weather early Thursday morning, but we should dry out late Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. Temperatures Thursday morning will likely start out in the upper 50s with highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s Thursday afternoon. There’s a good chance we could see a partly cloudy sky and some sunshine Thursday as the rain moves out of our area. Turning Cooler Friday: Behind the cold front, dry and cooler air will likely move into Central Alabama. Friday morning will end up chilly with temperatures starting out in the upper 30s. Friday will be our best weather day of the week with dry weather expected for the entire day. We should see a partly cloudy sky with high temperatures in the mid 50s. If you have any Friday evening plans, you’ll want to bundle up as temperatures cool into the 40s. Weekend Forecast: The weekend forecast remains a little tricky. The first half of Saturday will likely start out dry. Temperatures are forecast to start out in the mid to upper 30s. We’ll warm into the mid 50s Saturday afternoon with increasing cloud cover. A disturbance along the Gulf Coast will likely develop and surge northwards as we head into Saturday evening into Sunday morning. One of our long-range models hints that it could end up very wet during this time period. Another model shows less moisture with most of us dry for Saturday into Saturday night. We’ll hold on to a 30-40% chance for rain Saturday evening with rain chances climbing into Sunday. High temperatures this weekend will end up close to average with highs in the mid 50s. Sunday looks to be our wettest day this weekend with a 60% chance for rain. Looking ahead into next week, we will likely remain dry Monday with rain chances returning for the middle part of next week. Temperatures look close to average next week, so I see no signs of extreme cold or big warm-ups.

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