Final Rutgers bracketology update as Selection Sunday arrives: To Dayton or not to Dayton?

Will it be Dayton, or will Rutgers start in the field?

That appears to be the major Selection Sunday question for the Scarlet Knights, who look to be in good position to receive a program-record third consecutive NCAA Tournament bid.

Here is where Rutgers stands with a handful of hours to go until the selection show:

Bracketology

The general picture of where the Scarlet Knights (19-13, 10-10) stand on Sunday morning is on the right side of the bubble.

Of the 37 projections tracked by BracketMatrix that were updated on Sunday morning, 34 have Rutgers in the field. All but one of those projections list Rutgers as an 11-seed, making a second consecutive First Four trip to Dayton a very real possibility.

– Brad Wachtel has the Scarlet Knights as one of his last four teams in the field in his latest Facts and Bracks projection, placing them in Dayton with a matchup against NC State. The winner will earn the 11-seed in the West regional, where it will face six-seed San Diego State.

– The Athletic’s Brian Bennett has the Scarlet Knights as an 11-seed and one of his last four byes, projecting them to face six-seed TCU in a first round matchup in Denver as part of the Midwest regional.

– ESPN’s Joe Lunardi also lists Rutgers as one of his last four byes, placing them as an 11-seed in Denver that would meet six-seed San Diego State in Denver as part of the Midwest regional.

– CBS’ Jerry Palm has the Scarlet Knights as one of his last four teams in the field, projecting them to face 11-seed Nevada in the First Four in Dayton.

While most agree Rutgers is in the field, one prominent NIT bracketologist disagrees. John Templon, arguably the most reliable projectionist of the secondary national tournament, currently has the Scarlet Knights as a No. 1 seed in the competition.

“I just cannot get past the historically anomalous record that the Scarlet Knights have put together this season. If they get selected, it will be with more bad losses than is typically thought possible. Rutgers is 70th in T-Rank Wins Above Bubble. The only reason they’re even in this conversation is the plethora of opportunities for good wins that the Big Ten provides,” he wrote.

Résumé Reminder

Here are the key elements of their CV:

GOOD

– A 10-10 record in Quadrant 1/2 games, including four Quadrant 1 wins. That list includes an upset of then-No. 1 Purdue at Mackey Arena, one of the best victories earned by any team in college basketball this season.

– A NET ranking of 40, which is 37 spots higher than the record-high ranking of 77 that the Scarlet Knights held when they earned a bid last season.

– A top-40 ranking in multiple metrics, including KenPom, ESPN’s BPI, Bart Torvik’s T-Rank and Jeff Sagarin.

BAD

– Four Quadrant Three losses, which is more bad losses than any other team on the bubble. That includes a meltdown to last-place Minnesota, a double-digit home loss to 12th-place Nebraska and a neutral court loss to Temple.

– A Strength of Record of 59, which is lower than a vast majority of the teams Rutgers is competing against. For comparison, the lowest SOR of any team to receive an at-large bid last season was 53 (Wyoming), per acclaimed bracketologist Brad Wachtel.

– A 6-9 record on road/neutral games, which includes Q3 losses @Minnesota and against Temple on a neutral court. The Scarlet Knights did tie a program record with four Big Ten road wins, but they let a golden opportunity slip away at Miami.

– A non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 314th in the NET, 342nd on KenPom.

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Brian Fonseca may be reached at bfonseca@njadvancemedia.com.

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