December 25, 2024

Federal election live updates: Malcolm Turnbull says voting for teal independents will thwart ‘capture’ of Liberal party

Malcolm Turnbull #MalcolmTurnbull

Economic issues might nudge their way back into the campaign today, with markets swooning overnight and needing a decent dose of smelling salts.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is a bit lighter this morning, losing almost 5% on Wall Street, while the Dow Jones Index dropped more than 1,000 points, reversing the earlier day’s 932-point gain.

The broader S&P 500 index’s 3.6% dive lopped an eye-watering $1.8tn (in Australian dollars) off that market’s value.

Australian shares are headed lower, of course, as is the Australian dollar, which dipped below 71 US cents before edging back a bit.

“Investors remain concerned about the ability of central banks to control inflation,” the CBA said in a briefing note, perhaps understating things a tad.

One trigger seems to be the Bank of England lifting its bank rate by 25 basis points for a fourth consecutive increase. It also warned of inflation reaching 10% by the year’s end and for the economy to start contracting. “Stagflation”, in other words, is real risk.

Central banks have been playing catch-up after betting inflation would be “transient” when it was related to Covid restrictions. They didn’t pick, perhaps not surprisingly, that Russia would invade Ukraine but they were also a bit too optimistic about Covid supply restrictions easing. China’s latest lockdowns point to lingering troubles on that front too.

The Reserve Bank of Australia, meanwhile, will release its quarterly statement on monetary policy at 11.30 AEST today. Given that governor Philip Lowe went to some lengths to add context to why the central bank raised its cash rate target by 25bp on Tuesday – more than any of the 32 economists surveyed by newswires – that territory has probably been covered.

Still, there may be additional information about what other central banks are up to, including the US Fed’s 50bps increase to its official rate since the RBA move.

Market turmoil in Australia might revive debate over the main parties’ economic plans.

The election itself might be adding sagging sentiment. Interestingly, planned property auctions this week are a little over 2,000, according to CoreLogic, or 23% lower than a week ago. This time a year ago, there were more than 3,000 auctions.

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