Fantasy Football Today: Bold predictions, Dave Richard’s Start/Sit calls and a Bills-Rams preview
2 years ago
Bills #Bills
All that planning and studying that you did — or didn’t! — do this offseason has been leading to today. The NFL season kicks off tonight at 8:20, with the Bills and Rams going face to face in a potential Super Bowl preview. And I’m hyped!
This is the start of my 12th season covering the NFL for CBS Fantasy, and the first day of the season is always a great day. If for no other reason than I haven’t gotten any of my predictions wrong yet. Yet.
Happily, I’m not the only person helping you set your lineup. Jamey Eisenberg’s Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em picks for Week 1 are right here, and today’s newsletter will bring you Dave Richard’s start and sit picks as well. But hey, maybe you don’t have time for all that reading and you want to get your questions answered directly. Well, then make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel and join Adam Aizer and I (and maybe some guests) at 2 p.m. ET today for our start/sit live stream. We’ll be discussing all of the latest news and answering your toughest lineup questions, and we’ll be there every week to make sure you’re ready for the first lineup lock of the week.
In tomorrow’s newsletter, I’ll have previews of every game on the Week 1 schedule, including the latest injury updates for everyone you need to know about, plus all of the key takeaways from tonight’s season opener between the Bills and Rams.
Get ready for Week 1 with all of our preview content here:
Here’s what else today’s newsletter will cover:
I’m planting a flag on Miami’s offense being a top-five unit, and I have 13 other bold predictions for the upcoming season. You can read them all here, but here’s a taste. Watch out; it might be spicy:
1. D.J. Moore scores 10-plus touchdowns
When the argument against a player essentially boils down to something like, “They can’t score touchdowns,” that’s typically a good player to bet on. Moore has been good at everything in his career except getting into the end zone, with just 14 touchdowns in four seasons – including just four in three straight. However, it’s worth noting that the Panthers haven’t had more than 17 touchdown passes in any of their past three seasons, so he’s actually scored more than one-quarter of their passing touchdowns in that stretch. With Baker Mayfield at QB, I expect the Panthers offense to be much more functional, and that gives Moore a much better chance to find the end zone. Here’s hoping he does it a whole bunch more.
2. Kyle Pitts is the No. 1 tight end
For me, it’s not a question of “if” but “when.” Pitts is going to be the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy at some point. Does he surpass Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews this season? Given Kelce’s age and the decline we saw last season plus Andrews’ numbers with and without Lamar Jackson – he averaged more than 5 PPR points per game more without Jackson active last season – I think there’s a pretty good chance it happens this year. 90 catches, 1,300 yards, and six-plus touchdowns? It’s well within his grasp.
3. No Chiefs or Packers wide receiver has more than 900 yards
Patrick Mahomes apologized in advance to Fantasy players for his expectation that the Chiefs won’t have a true No. 1 WR this season, and Matt LaFleur made similar comments about the Packers wide receivers in the preseason. I don’t mind the idea of taking JuJu Smith-Schuster as your No. 3 wide receiver or a late-round flier on the likes of Skyy Moore, Christian Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, or Romeo Doubs, but I expect these to be pretty ambiguous situations for much of the season. If I had a lot invested in anyone in these passing games besides Travis Kelce, I wouldn’t feel good about it.
4. Najee Harris isn’t a top-12 RB
Harris is going to get as many snaps and touches as he can handle, but there are real reasons to be concerned about how good this Steelers offense is and whether he’s going to get the same passing workload he got last season with the more mobile Mitchell Trubisky. But the thing that really scared me off Harris was the news that he dealt with a Lisfranc injury during camp. He’s supposedly fully past it now, but if it slows him down at all or even gets worse, things could go really south.
There are nine more where that came from right here.
There are the obvious calls, and then there are the ones you need help with. Dave Richard goes through each game to identify the most interesting matchups and biggest lineup dilemmas for Week 1. Here are some of his top picks for this week. You can find the rest of his advice for Week 1 here:
Starts Sits Sleepers Bust Candidates
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🆚TNF Preview: Bills at Rams
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook
Line: Bills -2.5; 52 over/under
Implied totals: Bills 27.25-Rams 24.75
The Bills are the Super Bowl favorites, and that’s reflected in them being favored on the road against the reigning Super Bowl champions. The Bills don’t really have an obvious weakness, and with questions about Matthew Stafford’s elbow and Cam Akers’ health in general, the Bills should have an edge here. We also broke down the game on the FFT podcast.
Key injuries: Van Jefferson has already been ruled out after undergoing preseason knee surgery, and he’s the only notable absence expected. Isaiah McKenzie was a full participant in practice all week with his groin injury, and neither Akers nor Darrell Henderson was listed on the injury report after missing much of training camp with leg injuries.
What to watch for: I’m expecting Stafford to be more or less fine, but I don’t know with 100% certainty that he will be. But he played through this elbow injury without much concern for much of last season, so why can’t he do the same, at least to start the season? Maybe it’ll become more of an issue moving forward, but I think the bigger question for the Rams is what the running back split looks like. Sean McVay historically doesn’t split carries much, but there were reports in camp of Akers and Henderson being used relatively interchangeably. It’ll be hard for either to be a must-start Fantasy option if that’s the case. On the Bills side, I’m expecting to see three running backs active on game days, a notable change from how they operated for much of last season, but I still think Devin Singletary will be the clear lead back — the question is whether Zack Moss steals enough short-yardage and James Cook enough passing situation usage to render Singletary unusable for Fantasy. We’ll also be keeping an eye on McKenzie’s snap share — he’s going to be the primary slot receiver, but he also saw some time with the first team in two-WR sets. If he’s on the field for nearly every pass play, I love his chances of emerging as a viable PPR start, even if Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are high-end options as well.
🚑Week 1 Injury Watch
The Big News: Chris Godwin was listed as a full participant in Wednesday’s practice for the Buccaneers. That raised a lot of eyebrows on Twitter when it was announced, though a little extra digging revealed he was still wearing an orange non-contact jersey. So, I’m gonna throw a little asterisk there. Saying Godwin practiced in full is “technically correct” — the best kind of correct — but it’s likely the Bucs did a lighter, walkthrough-type practice, in which case, the more relevant news is that Godwin still hasn’t taken contact. Maybe he will Thursday or Friday and that’ll be enough for him to be cleared for Sunday’s opener against the Cowboys, but at this point, I’m still betting against him playing. And, even if he does, I’d probably prefer not to start him even in what should be a shootout — it’ll just be impossible to know if he’s going to play a full complement of snaps. Give him a week even if he is healthy. You should have the depth for it.
I’ll have a full breakdown of the injury report in Friday’s newsletter along with my preview of each game, but here’s a look at the first practice participation reports of the season:
Injuries to watch for Week 1
It’s not clear what these injuries mean quite yet.
George Kittle (groin) — Kittle seemed to suffer the injury during Monday’s practice session, and while coach Kyle Shanahan downplayed it, he did admit the injury hurt worse than expected after Kittle got the day off Tuesday. At this point, I would make sure I have a backup tight end ready to go for Week 1, which is frustrating because the whole point of drafting Kittle in the first five rounds is you aren’t supposed to have to worry about rostering a second tight end to open the season. Rotten luck.
Michael Thomas (hamstring) — LP. We’ve gotten used to being pessimistic about Thomas’ health, and since Saints coach Dennis Allen hasn’t committed to Thomas playing in Week 1, neither will I. But it sounds like he’s close and at least has a chance, so don’t count him out. It’s hard to know what to expect from Thomas after he has effectively missed two seasons with an ankle injury, but there’s obviously significant upside here.
J.K. Dobbins (knee) — LP. One good thing we heard was Ravens coach John Harbaugh saying Dobbins was “ascending quickly,” but he still hasn’t been cleared to fully participate in practice coming back from his torn ACL. Dobbins will have to take contact at some point before he’s cleared to play, so at this point, I’m still considering him a long shot for Week 1. Kenyan Drake is my pick to lead the Ravens in carries if Dobbins is out, but he’ll likely split work with Mike Davis either way.
Chase Edmonds (groin) — LP. This is the first we’re hearing of the injury for Edmonds, so hopefully it’s no big deal. That he was limited Wednesday seems like a good sign, but we’ll monitor Thursday and Friday’s sessions to be sure. If Edmonds is limited, Raheem Mostert could be a very good start for Week 1, even against a tough Patriots defense.
Jaylen Waddle (quad) — LP. Waddle was missed from practice for several weeks due to the injury, but he wasn’t wearing a leg sleeve Wednesday, a sign that he’s moving in the right direction. I’m expecting Waddle to play and viewing him as a WR2 in the new-look Dolphins offense.
Drake London (knee) — LP. London was back at practice Monday for the first time since the preseason opener when he suffered the injury, but Falcons coach Arthur Smith isn’t willing to confirm London’s availability at this point: “We won’t know until the end of the week.”
Velus Jones (hamstring) — LP. Jones missed time in camp as a result of the injury, but he has a chance to play in Week 1. And, given the dearth of talent in Chicago’s receiving corps, Jones has a chance to have a significant role, though we’ll need to see it first from the team’s third-round pick before he’s worth rostering in most Fantasy leagues.
Zach Ertz (calf) — LP. Ertz is being termed “day to day” by coach Kliff Kingsbury, which makes him truly questionable for Week 1. Ertz is a fringe starter at tight end when healthy, but I think I’d prefer to avoid him at something less than 100%.
Robert Tonyan (knee) — LP. Tonyan is still working his way back from his torn ACL, but it’s not clear if he’s been able to take contact yet, which, as noted already, is the final hurdle. I wouldn’t expect to use him for Fantasy early on, but I’m keeping a close eye on him to see if he can emerge from a crowded receiving corps as a go-to option for Aaron Rodgers.
Trending up for Week 1
This doesn’t mean they will play, but we got good news about them Wednesday.
James Robinson (Achilles) — FP. Robinson isn’t even listed on the injury report, and Jaguars coach Doug Pederson told reporters he thinks Robinson is 100% recovered from his ruptured Achilles. “I think he’s there. I think he’s back.” Pederson didn’t rule out that Robinson could have his typical workload in the first game, which is a little worrisome for Travis Etienne’s value, though that might be asking a lot from Robinson in his first game back, especially since there’s no guarantee Robinson will be the same guy post-injury. I’m still expecting Etienne to be the lead back, but it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if this ended up close to an even split before long.
Elijah Mitchell (hamstring) — Not listed on the injury report. Mitchell had been sidelined for most of training camp due to the injury, but it looks like it’s not an issue at this point. If Mitchell can stay healthy, he’s proven he can be an impact player in this 49ers offense, with at least 80 yards in eight of his 11 games. The problem is, Mitchell has struggled to stay healthy, and Kyle Shanahan can be fickle when it comes to playing time, so I could see him souring on Mitchell if injuries remain an issue. There’s definite boom-or-bust potential here, in the long run, but Mitchell should be a solid RB2 for Week 1 in a great matchup with the Bears.
Miles Sanders (hamstring) — FP. Sanders returned to practice last week and looks to be on pace to play in Week 1 against the Lions. It’s a pretty great matchup, but we don’t quite know what to expect from Sanders’ role — he should be the lead back, but whether that means a floor or ceiling of 15 carries is the question. I’m viewing him as more of an RB3 for this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) — FP. Smith-Schuster said he is “fully healed,” so we’re expecting him to be out there in a significant role in Week 1. And we’re expecting Smith-Schuster to be the team’s top non-Travis Kelce option in the passing game, though I’m treating him more like a WR3 until I know exactly how much that means he’s going to be featured.
Kadarius Toney (knee/hamstring) — Not listed on the injury report. Toney dealt with issues all throughout camp, but he’s healthy for now, and is an intriguing sleeper for the early part of the season. He has a ton of upside if he can be healthy, and I expect him to be the Giants’ top option as long as he is.
Sterling Shepard (Achilles) — LP. Shepard told reporters earlier in the week he is “ready to go” for Week 1 after recovering from a ruptured Achilles. I’m not buying that Shepard will be back to 100% just yet — this is one of the toughest injuries for any player to come back from — but if you’ve got a roster spot to play around with, consider adding Shepard. He was Daniel Jones’ clear top option in 2021 before the injury, and could be useful in PPR.
Christian Watson (knee) — FP. Watson missed the entire preseason after undergoing knee surgery just before the start of camp, but he’s been fully cleared and looks likely to make his debut in Week 1. Watson is probably the best athlete the Packers have at the wide receiver position, and he earned plenty of praise for his athleticism from Aaron Rodgers this week. Whether that will translate to immediate production in a crowded Packers receiving corps remains to be seen, but with Allen Lazard looking pretty iffy for Week 1, Watson could have a role immediately. Make sure he’s not out there on waivers in your league.
Russell Gage (hamstring) — LP. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles told reporters about Gage, “We expect him to be on track to play and trending in the right direction.” If Godwin doesn’t play and Gage does, I’ll consider Gage a borderline WR3 who could have a big game in a shootout against the Cowboys.
Irv Smith (thumb) — Smith is not listed on the injury report for Wednesday, so he’s good to go barring some kind of setback..
Trending down for Week 1
This doesn’t mean they won’t play, but they aren’t moving in the right direction yet.
Zach Wilson (knee) — Wilson will miss at least the season’s first three weeks, “at the earliest,” as Jets coach Robert Saleh told reporters Wednesday. That’s a surprise since we thought Wilson might have a chance to play in Week 1, but the Jets coach said the team wants to make sure Wilson is 100% before he’s cleared to play. He missed time with a knee injury last season as well, so maybe there is some concern of re-injury here? Either way, Joe Flacco will be the team’s starter until Wilson is back.
Diontae Johnson (shoulder) — LP. Coach Mike Tomlin downplayed the injury when Johnson initially suffered it during the team’s preseason finale, but Johnson sounded a very different tone after what seemed like a frustrating practice session. “Y’all saw me out there. No, I ain’t coming back for a reason,” he said, when asked if he could have returned to the team’s preseason game, as Tomlin said. “That shit was hurting, but I’m not going to lie. Like I said, I’m doing everything I can and get back to the guys one day at a time. It’s annoying.” It sounds like there’s a very real chance Johnson won’t be able to play this week, and while I wouldn’t trust either Chase Claypool or George Pickens as a starter for Week 1, they’d be very intriguing sleepers if Johnson were out.
Allen Lazard (ankle) — DNP. Finally, we at least know what the nature of Lazard’s injury is, as the Packers had refused to comment on it until Wednesday’s practice report. Lazard was apparently stepped on during practice last week and hasn’t been able to participate since. At this point, I’m leaning toward Lazard not playing, and I wouldn’t trust anyone in the Packers receiving game. Even if Lazard does play, he wouldn’t be any higher than a low-end WR3 for me.
Michael Gallup (knee) — LP. This was the first time we’ve seen Gallup participate in team drills, which is a good sign, though the expectation is still that he won’t be cleared to play for Week 1. But, it could be just another week or two before he is available, so make sure you add him on waivers if available. He could be a top 30 wide receiver when back to full speed coming off a torn ACL.
Donald Parham (hamstring) — DNP. Coach Brandon Staley told reporters Parham was going to be limited, but it’s not clear if there was some kind of setback or what. It’s worth watching over the next few days, mostly because Gerald Everett would be an even better sleeper if Parham is out.
