Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup: Vaughn Grissom out of the running; Reid Detmers adds velocity

The big news over the last week were the big blows suffered in the World Baseball Classic by the top-ranked relief pitcher and the top-ranked second baseman. 

Edwin Diaz is almost certainly lost for the season, having had surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon in his knee, and you can read more about his potential replacements here. Jose Altuve’s timeline is murkier — he has yet to go under the knife for a fractured thumb — but the most widely circulated estimate has him missing 8-10 weeks. That comes out to 6-8 weeks of regular-season action, which puts him coming back in mid-May or early June.

It’s a cautious estimate for this sort of injury, so even though an official prognosis won’t come until after the surgery, you can feel pretty confident Altuve’s absence won’t extend longer than that. Considering he’s the best second baseman — and a singularity in terms of what he can do at the position — a top-100 pick is still justified, provided you have IL spots available to you. The shallower the league, the more justifiable the risk.

It helps that second base, for what it lacks at the top, is loaded with cheap upside plays to use in Altuve’s absence. This includes Altuve’s likely replacement in Houston, David Hensley, who hit .298 (113 for 379) with 10 homers, 20 steals and a .420 on-base percentage at Triple-A last year. He did so at age 26, which undermines some of his prospect appeal, but there’s no faking his high-end exit velocities.

For a more detailed accounting of Altuve’s injury, check out Chris Towers’ article.

Here are 12 other developments from the past week:

By now, you know the story of Detmers’ 2022, right? How he got sent down midseason, then came back throwing his slider 3 mph harder and dominated? If you were already salivating over his 3.04 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in those 13 starts, imagine what he could do with another velocity bump, this time to his entire arsenal.

According to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, Detmer’s fastball has sat in the 95-97 range his past two starts. That’s compared to 93 last year. Meanwhile, his slider is up to 89-91 as compared to 87 following his stint in the minors last year. And indeed, he has dominated, striking out 17 in 13 innings to go along with a 2.08 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. The left-hander credits his improvement to — surprise, surprise — a stint with Driveline Baseball this offseason. “I said I just want to get stronger and more explosive,” Detmers said. “We made up a program for the whole offseason, and I just stuck to that. And the velo came.”

It turns out Orlando Arcia was a threat to Grissom after all. In fact, that’s the direction the Braves have decided to go with Dansby Swanson’s old job, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported Monday. Over the weekend, it looked like Braden Shewmake was the one making a late push, to the detriment of Fantasy players given that the 25-year-old had a .243 batting average and .693 OPS in the minors the last two years. But apparently, the Braves decided not to rush to judgment on either Grissom’s defensive strides or Shewmake’s offensive strides and will instead let the competition continue to play out in the minors.

Arcia probably doesn’t have long as a starter, a role he hasn’t filled since he was with the Brewers in 2020. He’s a marginal contributor both offensively and defensively, but he buys the Braves some time. This move also frees up a bench spot for Ehire Adrianza, who himself is nothing to write home about, but it’s a way of keeping another viable shortstop in the organization should attrition come for the position.

Ultimately, Grissom is still the most rosterable of all four Braves shortstop options, but because it’s now a stash situation with a murky timeline, he’s best left for deeper leagues.

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Braves throw another curveball

Shewmake’s rise isn’t the only surprise out of Braves camp. The team optioned both Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder to Triple-A Tuesday, leaving relative unknowns Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd as the only contenders for the final rotation spot. Shuster was the first to pitch following the news and made his strongest impression yet, striking out seven over four shutout innings. He probably has the leg up as a former first-round pick. The left-hander was drafted primarily for his changeup, but it’s the improvement of his slider that has him knocking at the door. More than anything, I’m impressed by the way he hides the ball, which explains why his stuff plays up despite so-so velocity. Check it out:

As for Dodd, he delivered a fine outing of his own Saturday, allowing one run on two hits with four strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings. The run was the only one he’s allowed in 13 innings this spring, giving him a 0.69 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 10.4 K/9. Shuster, meanwhile, has a 0.71 ERA, 0.55 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 in 12 2/3 innings.

Soto has mechanical breakthrough

If you haven’t tuned in for the World Baseball Classic, you might have missed Juan Soto going 6 for 15 with two homers and three doubles for the Dominican Republic. Between that and Cactus League play, he’s 14 for 29 (.483) with three homers and six doubles, looking much more like the player who hit .322 between 2020 and 2021 than the one who hit .242 last year. “It’s way different, the way I’m seeing the ball now,” Soto said. “Mechanically, I was off last year, the whole year.”

The turnaround is welcome news for what might be the game’s best pure hitter, but dampening enthusiasm are reports of him suffering a “mild” oblique injury in a minor-league game Sunday. His removal was deemed precautionary, so hopefully it doesn’t impact his readiness for opening day.

Profar gets the Coors Field bump

Jurickson Profar’s Fantasy fortunes turned around in the blink of an eye Sunday with reports of him agreeing to a deal with the Rockies. He’s expected to play left field and may even bat leadoff, according to the Denver Gazette, which is no small development given the star-making power of Coors Field.

Profar’s production with the Padres last year was nothing to write home about, but just by virtue of him logging so many at-bats, he was the No. 41 outfielder in 5×5 leagues and, amazingly, the No. 19 outfielder in points leagues, the difference there being his excellent plate discipline. The walk rate specifically is why the Rockies have him in mind for the leadoff spot, but if there’s one thing Coors Field can do for him, it’s improve his batting average, which has languished behind a career .264 BABIP. League average is closer to .300, and Coors Field, with its spacious outfield, could bring Profar to around that mark so that he bats .270-.275. Imagine how high he’d finish in points leagues then.

Brandon Pfaadt seemed to stake his claim to the Diamondbacks’ final rotation spot in his latest outing Thursday, allowing one run on three hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in four innings. It was a stark contrast to the recent work done by Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson, giving Pfaadt a 3.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 for the exhibition season. 

But alas, the Diamondbacks sent Pfaadt to minor-league camp Sunday, which could mean that the far less interesting Tommy Henry is actually in the driver’s seat. He’s been the most consistent of the candidates other than Pfaadt. Then again, Nelson may have put himself back in the running with a fine outing Friday, allowing one run in 4 1/3 innings with six strikeouts. Clearly, there’s no predicting which direction the team will go here, but if it’s not Pfaadt, then either Nelson or Jameson would be far preferable to Henry.

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Sabol is one of three catchers competing for a spot on the Giants roster, and he may have a leg up on Joey Bart and Roberto Perez as a Rule 5 pick. In order to keep him in the organization, the Giants can’t send him to the minors, and it’s doubtful they’d want to anyway with the way he’s performed this spring, batting .344 (11 for 32) with three homers, two steals and nearly as many walks (nine) as strikeouts (11).

“I don’t think you can ever expect anybody to come in and produce the way he’s produced,” manager Gabe Kapler said. “I think we can appreciate the quality of his plate appearances, how hard he’s hitting the ball. Really, the thing that’s standing out the most is the baserunning. Every ball he hits, he’s running like it’s a regular-season game and the game is on the line.”

There’s a path to all three catchers making the major-league roster. The Giants have enjoyed watching Sabol hit so much that they may want to give him at-bats at DH. He can also play the outfield, where he’ll be eligible in CBS Sports leagues to begin the year. As for Fantasy, with the way things are trending, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sabol factor in two-catcher leagues once he’s eligible there.

A little closer clarity

According to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the Cubs see Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger as their primary ninth-inning options this season. In fact, it sounds like they may have even hinted that Fulmer could fill the closer role when they were courting him this offseason. “They had conversations about [closing], but I kind of inferred it as me having to win a job,” Fulmer said. The right-hander becomes the top Fantasy choice for that bullpen, with Boxberger also overtaking left-hander Brandon Hughes as a potential Draft Day target.

Meanwhile, Angels beat writer Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com suggested that Jimmy Herget could get a shot to close with Carlos Estevez struggling this spring. Herget was the team’s best reliever by the end of last season

Schmidt, who should have a rotation spot locked up already with the injury to Carlos Rodon, threw five perfect innings Thursday, striking out seven. He’s been inconsistent this spring, but he’s been working in a new cutter to help neutralize left-handed hitters. The spin rates on his other pitches offer plenty of reason for optimism. “He was dealing tonight,” manager Aaron Bone said. “When he’s pounding the strike zone and using both sides of the plate with what he’s now able to do pitch-package wise, that’s the kind of stuff he’s capable of. That was pretty electric.”  

Encarnacion-Strand sent down

Joey Votto’s return to the lineup last Sunday effectively brought an end to Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s opening day hopes. The spring sensation was reassigned to minor-league camp after batting .577 (15 for 26) with four homers for the big club. Most impressively, he struck out just twice, and if he’s able to carry those contact gains into the minors, the slugging 23-year-old might force the issue with the Reds sooner than later. “First of all, he did everything right. He had a great spring,” manager David Bell said. “Just work as hard as he can to get back here. I see no reason why it couldn’t happen really quick for him to be here.”

Votto, who’s recovering from surgery on his biceps and rotator cuff, figures to get plenty of at-bats the rest of spring training as he prepares himself for opening day. “He’s definitely in a spot now where he can be playing every day,” Bell said.

Hayes ‘on time,’ showing power

After hitting seven home runs all of last season, Ke’Bryan Hayes already has three this spring, connecting for the latest Saturday. The 26-year-old is capable of putting a charge in the ball, ranking in the 84th percentile for average exit velocity and the 89th percentile for max exit velocity last year, but his tendency to put the ball on the ground has undermined his power potential. The power may be coming around without him even making a swing adjustment, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

“I think the biggest thing we’ve talked about is he’s on time,” manager Derek Shelton said. “When we’ve seen him on time, we’re seeing him pull the ball and get it in the air. The consistency of his timing is something that’s really stood out.”  

Mitch Keller killing them with cutters

Keller, recently named the Pirates opening day starter, has worked to incorporate a cutter into his arsenal this spring. He threw it 42 percent of the time in his latest start Saturday, and the results were his best yet. He allowed just one run on three hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings. Of his 12 whiffs (on 77 pitches), the cutter was responsible for six.

Quick hits

Notable stat lines

Justin Verlander, SP, Mets11.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 16 K

Robbie Ray, SP, Mariners12 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 21 K

Jeffrey Springs, SP, Rays9.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 16 K

Jake Fraley, OF, Reds.306 BA (36 AB), 3 HR, 4 SB, 4 BB, 11 K

Austin Hays, OF, Orioles.400 BA (25 AB), 4 HR, 3 BB, 4 K

Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Tigers13 IP, 11 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 15 K

Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals.324 BA (37 AB), 3 HR, 6 BB, 14 K

Elehuris Montero, 3B, Rockies.318 BA (44 AB), 4 HR, 5 BB, 8 K

Justin Dirden, OF, Astros.350 BA (20 AB), 2 HR, 1 SB, 4 BB, 7 K

Luke Voit, 1B, Brewers.344 BA (32 AB), 2 HR, 1 BB, 8 K

Griffin Canning, SP, Angels9.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Bryce Johnson, OF, Giants.360 BA (25 AB), 3 2B, 11 SB, 2 BB, 6 K