Examining what’s wrong with Josh Allen, and how the Bills’ QB can get back on track
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For the first time in his NFL career, Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown two interceptions in three-straight games.
Coincidently, Buffalo is 1-2 in those contests, and the last second-half touchdown Allen’s offense has scored came all the way back in the Week 6 win over the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.
Now, it hasn’t all been bad for the Bills of late. They have two 24-point first halves in that stretch (Week 8 vs. Packers, Week 10 vs. Vikings) yet what’s protruding from consecutive losses more than anything else — Allen’s turnovers.
And the root of those turnovers is the juxtaposition of the NFL’s boldest, most forceful quarterback managing a delicate balancing act as a passer.
What is that balancing act, you ask? It’s whether he should let it rip vertically downfield or take the ho-hum checkdown. And it feels like that conundrum has been the driving force behind the most indecisive Allen we’ve seen since his eruption in 2020.
Before Week 8, when the two-interception streak began, Allen’s average depth of target (aDOT) was 8.3 yards, tied for the 17th-highest figure in football among qualifying quarterbacks. Despite the lower-than-expected aDOT in that stretch, Allen still completed the most throws (13) with 20-plus air yards. Buffalo’s offensive equilibrium was perfect. Allen had exquisitely picked his spots based on what the coverage dictated. He was averaging a sizable 8.3 yards per attempt with an adjusted completion rate of 78.1% with 17 touchdowns and four picks. He was the MVP front runner.
Then, after a few downfield connections hit in the first half against the Packers in Week 8 after the bye, Allen started to unnecessarily push the envelope. This is precisely when the current slump started, inauspiciously in the third quarter with the Bills up 27-10. At the top of his drop, Allen had tight end Dawson Knox open over the middle. Well short of the first-down marker, yes, but with plenty of space around him and one defender to beat.
After deciding not to throw to Knox in rhythm, Allen felt edge pressure and stepped up and out of the pocket. Instead of staying on that side of the field and firing to rookie wideout Khalil Shakir, open, beyond the sticks near the sideline, he scanned against the grain, and threw across his body to Gabriel Davis but didn’t notice the underneath defender, and was intercepted.
Of course, Allen has completed a throw of that kind many times in his NFL career, and he’s in the small collection of quarterbacks who deserves the license to occasionally attempt that physics-defying throw.
But a force wasn’t necessary. It wasn’t a fourth down. The Bills were cruising. Defenses were losing the coverage chess match to Buffalo every week. Instead of taking the layup, he went for the windmill dunk and clanked it off the back iron.
Allen’s second interception against the Packers was a throwaway attempt in the tight red zone that was more of an otherworldly play by Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander than anything else. Yet the over-aggressiveness didn’t stop against the Jets in Week 9.
In the third quarter, on a 2nd and 17, with a four-point lead, that checkdown vs. big-time throw balancing act short-circuited Allen’s normally steady decision-making and led to another interception.
It’s almost as if you can see Allen computing the dilemma in his head during the play. “Do I check it down to James Cook, with Sauce Gardner lurking? Or do I throw it over the top to Davis?” Seemingly, before he made his final decision, Allen’s arm already floated the pass into purgatory between each target directly to the Jets rookie corner.
In those two-pick contests, Allen’s aDOT jumped to 12.8 yards, the highest in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks in that time frame. Allen’s adjusted completion percentage? 62.5% and his yards-per-attempt average was a middle-of-the-road 7.2.
Now, Allen and the Bills adjusted their game plan for the Vikings. The surgical, quick-strike underneath pass game was back. His adjusted completion percentage was 77.5% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt all at a more reasonable aDOT of 9.5 yards.
Yet on the game-sealing, end zone interception in overtime, that pesky predicament appeared again. This time, Allen’s mind wasn’t in quite the quandary as the pick thrown to Gardner against the Jets. But watch the play — what do you notice leaking out before Allen releases the football?
You guessed it — running back Devin Singletary open on a checkdown. This wasn’t a last-gasp play for Buffalo, either. Second down with a minute left.
Weirdly too, Allen didn’t completely commit to his own aggression. He hesitated and hitched in his throwing motion before ultimately throwing the ball in Davis’ direction. If that pass is out when Allen initially began his delivery, it’s probably a walk-off touchdown. As for Allen’s uncertainty on this play — was it due to Davis’ head not being turned toward the football? We may never know.
Regardless of the nuances inside the play, it was just another opportunity for the Allen to take what was blatantly there and move on to the next play.
Now, having pushed quite a checkdown agenda here, I completely understand that cramming Allen into a conservative, always-take-the-layup box would be recency bias at its finest and preposterous based on Allen’s natural style and robust talent. Remember, Patrick Mahomes had similar frustrating stretch in 2021, when he threw eight picks in a five-game stretch.
But, like Mahomes, Allen has become so much more than a wild, rocket-armed, gun-slinger who’s only effective when ripping fastballs 40 yards downfield through a tiny window. His supreme physical and athletic gifts are, unquestionably, the foundation of his greatness. Yet it’s Allen’s dedication to learning then utilizing the intricate details of playing the position that’ve made him the elite quarterback he is today.
For such an imposing specimen, with magnificent running and throwing abilities, staying within structure can’t be easy. Allen likely feels he should always be dictating to the defense and can make any throw, in any situation, to any blade of grass on the field.
But to emerge from the slump he’s in, Allen must remember what served as the catalyst for his rise to NFL prominence — the mental capacity to understand where it’s best to throw a rocket, and sometimes, a soft checkdown.