ESPN predicts Jets will get top pick in 2022 NFL draft
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The numbers don’t look too great for a quick Jets’ rebuild in 2021, according to one forecast.
New York is projected to take home the first overall pick in the 2022 draft, according to Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders and ESPN, even after hiring Robert Saleh, drafting Zach Willson and adding other key pieces. Football Outsiders calculated these predictions based on personnel changes, three-year performance, standard regression toward the mean and schedule strength. It found that the Jets will likely be worse than they were a year ago – mainly because of analytical and historical patterns of the past decade.
A team typically ranks 25th in offensive DVOA on average when it starts a top-15 quarterback immediately since 2013, per Schatz, and that’s before taking into account the Jets’ 31st and 32nd ranked offensive DVOA over the past two seasons. The Jets’ bottom-six running backs over the past three years didn’t make things any better, either, but that could change in Mike LaFleur’s wide-zone running scheme that worked well in San Francisco. Even still, the Jets would need their numerous offensive additions to develop quickly and effectively to buck this trend.
This goes for the defense, too. Though the Jets will run a mixture of Robert Saleh’s, Jeff Ulbrich’s and Pete Carroll’s schemes, it will take time for all the pieces – new and old – to gel. Schatz added that the Jets’ secondary issues negatively affected their projected production even with the boost in the front-seven from Carl Lawson and Quinnen Williams.
Now, this assessment isn’t necessarily an absolute indication of the Jets’ 2021 season. Schatz admitted that seven teams projected to finish with a top-10 pick over the past three seasons have made the playoffs. The path for the Jets will be tough though given all the data points as well as their division, which features two 10-win teams – the Bills and the Dolphins – as well as the always-threatening Patriots.
If the Jets did land the No. 1 pick, though, they’d have their choice of some nice defensive pieces. Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux headlines a nice collection of edge rushers likely headed to the 2022 draft, and the top pick is always a great trade piece for quarterback-needy teams.
There is still a lot of time left between now and next April – enough for the Jets to prove this prediction wrong.
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