‘Dune Part 2’ Grosses $80 Million As First Blockbuster Of 2024

After a rousing $32 million opening day gross (including advance screenings and previews) and tremendous positive word of mouth, writer-director Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two — cowritten by Jon Spaihts — is headed toward a likely $80 million North American gross in its debut weekend, making it the first blockbuster of 2024.

Giant sandworms deliver spectacular visuals in “Dune: Part Two”

Source: Warner

The grand scale sci-fi opera received glowing A-grades from audiences via Cinemascore — as did Bob Marley: One Love, which tops $130 million this weekend as another much-needed hit to kick off the year, matching the rave reviews for the film in its Certified Fresh rating via Rotten Tomatoes.

Those good words are spreading fast, and the film appears headed for a significant overperformance against earlier estimates more in the $70s-million range.

The first Dune grossed $435 million worldwide in its theatrical run, earning an audience grade of A- and a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 83%. So the positive word of mouth was good enough to drive it to north of $400 million despite 2021’s Covid pandemic surges and peaks, and despite being available on HBO Max day-and-date, and despite having leaked for free online a week beforehand.

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If Dune: Part Two turns out to be great, then, it could be a monster-sized hit, building upon the performance of the original film relative to the marketplace environment at the time. It releases without lockdowns or significant audience fear of Covid in public places (a mistaken impression that could once again lead to horrible results if we aren’t careful, I fear), with a higher audience score and much better reviews.

Additionally, its premium theater screens like IMAX and Dolby Cinema are performing terrific so far, and should provide enough boosted ticket pricing to make up for less overall screenings per day due to the film’s longer runtime. Some IMAX theaters even added extra late-night screenings to accommodate demand.

International box office should be great for Dune: Part Two as well. Foreign markets accounted for more than two-thirds of Dune’s box office back in 2021, again in the context of Covid surges but without the access to HBO Max streaming — which is why the pirated copy online plays an outsized role in analysis.

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Audiences worldwide will only have access to Dune: Part Two via theaters, and for likely many months to come. And that, I believe, will translate into a particular trend we’ve seen before, which could mean Part Two performs far ahead of even our rosy initial expectations.

As we saw with Avatar: The Way of Water, audiences want to see these big event releases in the best locations possible, so they are being picky about buying tickets for seats that aren’t exactly where and when they want them. This leads to people waiting to see the film after initial rush has diminished, and when those superior seating options are freed up. And that means the film continues to hold stronger week to week, suffering much smaller declines and enjoying much longer box office legs.

If this same scenario transpires for Dune: Part Two, it might double the first film’s box office gross and make a run at $900 million or even $1 billion. It’s obviously way early to suggest that’s happening or to treat it as the primary point of discussion. But it speaks to the nature of our times and theatrical business, and to the way audiences interact with entertainment nowadays, and there are interesting trends and comps that, if and when they align, point in an exciting direction.

With so many early signs suggesting that path, it’s worth mentioning as a statement on how well this film is already positioned and what it’s doing right — because that’s a lesson Hollywood is desperately trying to solve for the upteenth time, as audience demographics and preferences and options radically evolve at a pace this industry is slow to embrace.

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So high-end, I think if we do indeed see the $80 million result stateside that I predict, and if international numbers come in as equally above expectations as I think they will, then a $200+ debut weekend would strongly indicate a final global cume of at least $650 million and more likely north of $700 million. If it opens on the high end of predictions and the weekday numbers are as big as they could be, then if second weekend results reflect a small percentage decline in sales, I think we can start discussing an $800 million final total.

The only notable competition for most of March is Kung Fu Panda 4, which arrives March 8th and will definitely draw a lot of family audience. However, parents with small children are not a demographic likely turning out in huge numbers for Dune: Part Two anyway, so perhaps the impact there will be softened by that fact.

Additionally, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire drops March 22nd, but I don’t expect that sequel to generate much heat.

No, the first major direct challenge to Dune: Part Two comes March 29th, when Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire smashes its way into theaters and takes over the dominant box office narrative. Besides, Warner Bros. Discovery WBD can’t be too bothered by the giant monsters taking the crown, since that film will be WBD’s second blockbuster of the year.

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But don’t sleep on Dune: Part Two’s capacity to continue overperforming as it loses screens but a lot of audience who waited for the rush to die off finally start dropping by, including many of those parents who had to postpone seeing it because they took their kids to see Kung Fu Panda 4 earlier in the month. Godzilla x Kong is four weekends away, and by then Dune: Part Two might be on its way to $800 million.

This is precisely the sort of start and sort of big franchise hit Warner Bros. Discovery needed to start the year, after months of mixed to terrible news at the box office, and in their public relations and entertainment news.

Dune: Part Two will lead into Godzilla x Kong, ahead of the WBD May 22nd release of less certain but still potentially a hit Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Later in the year, the studio’s Joker: Folie à Deux breaks loose on October 4th, and Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is Warner’s holiday season release on December 13th. The MonsterVerse team-up sequel and Joker sequel should both deliver blockbuster numbers, while both the Mad Max and Lord of the Rings prequels (the latter animated) are buzzy properties that can either overperform or underperform, so split the difference.

That gives WBD three likely blockbuster franchise sequels, one successful franchise prequel, one so-so or disappointing franchise prequel, and then the rest of their slate is probably a mix of moderate successes and modest disappointments, with a few low-budget pictures delivering profitable returns and a few mid-range investments flop.

So 2024 will probably be a mixed year for Hollywood, Warner included, but Dune: Part Two needed to deliver to give the studio breathing room and reason for some optimistic box office outlook, and so far so good.